Curve DAO Token (CRV) 24-Hour Technical Price Analysis

Step-by-Step Detailed Analysis

1. Long-Term Trend Analysis (Daily Chart)

• Macro Trend: From early May through mid-June 2025, CRV traded in a broad range between $0.50 and $0.80, characterized by compression and accumulation as evidenced by high volume spikes near local lows.
• June–July Bull Breakout: Starting July 10, a significant shift in sentiment occurred, with enormous increases in volume and a rapid surge from ~$0.50 to peaks above $1.10 by July 27–28. This represents a near 100% move in roughly two weeks, classic of a late-stage breakout from accumulation.
• Recent Pullback: Post July 28, CRV failed to hold the highs, pulling back sharply toward $0.86–$1.02. This is suggestive of profit-taking and possibly a correction after exhaustion of the immediate bullish thrust.

2. Volume Profile & Market Structure

• Highest Volumes & Key Levels: The largest volumes appeared on July 16–18 ($0.92–$1.07) and July 25–27 ($1.03–$1.15). Heavy sell volume followed the sharp rise, indicating supply entered as price approached psychological resistance ($1.10–$1.15).
• Current Support Zones: Latest daily closes and wicks show that $0.84–$0.88 acted as both support and resistance (see July 30th–Aug 2nd intraday levels). At $0.86, CRV is sitting on a critical support-turned-resistance battleground.
• Key Resistance: $0.92–$0.92 (prior support, now resistance); $0.98+ (trend reversal zone).

3. Intraday Pattern Analysis (Hourly Data)

• Tall Wick Retracement (Aug 2): After a failed attempt to break above $0.92 area several times on Aug 2, a sequence of lower highs and lower lows formed. The highest attempts capped around $0.92, rejected strongly—echoing resistance.
• Short-Term Double Bottom: There are two major attempts to break below $0.86 (Aug 2, 18:00 and 20:00), with both attempts quickly bought up. However, bounces are weak and fail to retake $0.88 velocity—suggesting overhead supply winning out.
• No Signs of Strong Bull Momentum Reversal: Despite some wick reclaims, each subsequent rally is weaker, and the volume accompanying the latest drop (Aug 2, 18:00–20:00) is not met with strong bounce.

4. Momentum Indicators

• RSI Estimation: Given the recent sharp drop (from above $1.00 to $0.86 in two sessions) and weak bounces, RSI on lower timeframes (1h/4h) is likely in oversold region but does not show bullish divergence—downtrend momentum remains.
• MACD/SMA: Fast moving averages (21/50 period) would be pointing down, with heavy compression. MACD likely negative and widening, reflecting strong selling pressure and a loss of short-term bullish momentum.

5. Moving Averages / Trend Reliability

• 50 & 200 SMA: Given the massive run-up just last week, price is currently under the 20/50hr moving averages (probably by a solid margin now), but likely still slightly above a sharply rising 200hr MA (which is catching up halfway through the breakout). Breakdown below all significant short-term MAs is typically bearish unless strongly recaptured.
• EMA Ribbon: Unlikely to be providing support after today's flush—the ribbon is likely fanned bearish on the hourly chart.

6. Volatility & ATR

• Range Expansion: The latest daily ATR is high (estimated >$0.07), further supporting that volatility remains elevated and breakouts/breakdowns are likely to experience extension moves.
• Absence of Strong Bounce: Volatility is now to the downside. Each upward retrace is met with selling, and range-bound support at $0.86 is fragile.

7. Order Flow / Psychological Levels

• Liquidity Test Near $0.85: Market structure shows lack of aggressive buyers below $0.87 after repeated breakdown attempts. Liquidity below $0.85 may be thin until next historical support ($0.80–$0.82) is tested.

8. Pattern Recognition & Market Sentiment

• Failed Breakout (Bull Trap): The inability to sustain above $1.00 and multiple failed retests of resistance ($0.92–$0.98) indicate a bull trap scenario—the likely outcome is retest of deeper supports.
• Bearish Continuation: The last bounce was 'weak' and quickly sold. This is generally a sign of further downside continuation as short-term bulls capitulate.

9. Fibonacci Retracement Levels (from July 16 low ~$0.75 to July 27 high ~$1.15):

• 23.6% retrace: ~$1.05 (broken)
• 38.2% retrace: ~$0.98 (failed bounce zone)
• 50% retrace: ~$0.95 (minor support lost)
• 61.8% retrace: ~$0.88 (current battleground, weak support)
• 78.6% retrace: ~$0.82 (likely destination if $0.86 gives way)

10. Risk/Reward Calculation

• Target: $0.82–$0.84 (near 78.6% retrace and prior volume base)
• Entry: $0.86–$0.87 (current price / breakdown confirmation)
• Stop Loss: Above $0.92 (recent lower high / invalidation)

Synthesis & Trading Decision

• Macro Structure: Bearish consolidation after failed rally, distribution underway.
• Momentum: Weak, seller controlled.
• Support: Weak, likely to break.
• Best Approach: Short rally attempts; Sell breakdown below $0.86 confirmation.

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Summary of Strategy

• The overall pattern and indicator confluence are pointing to further downside.
• "Weak bounces after breakdown" is a classic trend continuation sell signal, especially post-failed breakout with high volume confirmation.
• Next major liquidity pool rests near $0.82–$0.84, offering a good target for profit.

Recommendation: Sell (Short Position)

Entry: $0.863 (current price)

Target: $0.825 (cover before historical support)