CRV: Ascending Triangle Targets 0.55 After Capitulation—Buy Dips, Sell Into 0.55s

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (probability-weighted). Expect a grind higher with dips bought, contingent on reclaiming/holding 0.525–0.527 and breaking 0.533–0.535.
• Expected range (24h): 0.515–0.558. Key upside magnets: 0.539–0.543, then 0.551–0.555. Downside supports: 0.520–0.517, then 0.509–0.505.
• Trade idea: Buy pullbacks into 0.525–0.527 or momentum add on a clean break above 0.535. Target 0.553–0.555 within 24h if breakout confirms.

Step-by-step technical analysis (multi-timeframe and multi-tool)

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily context: CRV suffered a sharp drawdown culminating in a capitulation-type day on Oct 10 (intraday low ~0.237, close ~0.506), followed by a relief rally to ~0.633 on Oct 13 and a controlled pullback to ~0.510 on Oct 17. Today (Oct 18) shows a constructive bounce to ~0.531. Structure on daily remains in a broader downtrend since late July highs (~1.15) with a series of lower highs/lows, but the last week shows basing behavior above 0.50.
• Intraday (hourly) structure: Since Oct 17 late session, price is carving higher lows: 0.510 → 0.519 → 0.521 → 0.524 → 0.528 → 0.530. A flat-to-slightly-ascending resistance sits at 0.533–0.535 (hourly highs near 0.5347). This is an ascending triangle pattern, often bullish when formed after a selloff and early basing.
• Key levels derived from recent swings:
  • Support: 0.509–0.515 (yesterday’s low cluster), then 0.498 (Oct 17 low). Deep supports: 0.484, 0.462.
  • Resistance: 0.533–0.535 (hourly cap), 0.539–0.543 (Oct 16 intraday highs), 0.554–0.563 (Oct 12–15 supply), 0.593, 0.633.

2. Momentum indicators

• RSI (Daily, estimated): After the capitulation, daily RSI likely recovered from oversold (~30s) to mid-40s; currently neutral-bearish but rising. This supports a bounce but acknowledges the bigger downtrend.
• RSI (Hourly, estimated): Climbing into the upper 50s/low 60s with series of higher lows—bullish but not overbought, leaving room to extend toward 0.54–0.55 if resistance breaks.
• MACD (Daily, qualitative): Histogram contraction after several red sessions; signal lines likely curling higher from negative territory, consistent with a short-term momentum turn-up.
• MACD (Hourly): Above the zero line or approaching it with expanding histogram on pushes toward 0.53—supports continuation on breakout.

3. Trend tools

• Moving averages (qualitative):
  • Daily 20/50 MAs are above price and sloping down—macro trend still down.
  • 5–10 day EMAs are flattening/starting to hook up after holds above ~0.51—short-term trend turning up.
  • Hourly 20/50 EMAs are below/near price with positive slope; price is riding the 20EMA on dips—constructive for intraday continuation.
• Ichimoku (1h, qualitative): Price trades above Tenkan; Kijun near 0.525–0.527 area acts as intraday buy-the-dip zone. Cloud overhead around 0.533–0.54 is thinning—favorable for a break if volume appears. On 4h/daily, price remains below cloud—rallies face supply into 0.55–0.56.

4. Volatility, Bollinger Bands, ATR

• Daily BBs expanded on Oct 10’s shock and have been slowly compressing; price is migrating from lower band toward the mid-band (still below on daily). Mean-reversion impulse favors a test of mid-zone supply (0.55–0.56) before any big decision.
• Hourly BBs show a modest squeeze with price repeatedly tagging upper band without blow-off—indicative of controlled trend. Expect a band walk on breakout above 0.535, projecting into mid-0.55s.
• ATR (qualitative): 14D ATR elevated by the capitulation, but the last several sessions show reduced realized volatility. A 24h ±0.03–0.04 move (5–7%) is reasonable, matching the 0.515–0.558 range projection.

5. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Pullback leg: Oct 13 high 0.633 → Oct 17 low 0.498.
  • 38.2% retrace: ~0.550.
  • 50% retrace: ~0.566.
  • 61.8% retrace: ~0.582. These align with the 0.55–0.56 resistance band. A break of 0.535 projects an initial measured move to ~0.551 (height of triangle ~0.016 added to the 0.535 neckline), in confluence with 38.2% Fib.

6. Volume, OBV, and capitulation read

• Volume peaked on Oct 10 (capitulation candle) and has moderated since—typical of a bottoming process. Post-capitulation rebounds often retest after a lower-vol pullback; current intraday buying suggests accumulation.
• OBV (qualitative): Likely bottomed and is ticking up on the hourly, matching higher lows in price—supportive of upside follow-through on breakout.

7. Pivot levels (classic) using Oct 17 H/L/C (0.5435/0.4979/0.5098)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.517.
• R1 ≈ 0.536 (near today’s intraday lid)—a pivotal breakout trigger.
• R2 ≈ 0.563 (near 50% Fib)—a plausible 24–36h extension target if momentum expands.
• S1 ≈ 0.491, S2 ≈ 0.472 (deep supports below the 0.50 shelf; unlikely in base case within 24h unless a fresh risk-off shock).

8. VWAP and profile considerations

• Anchored VWAP from Oct 10 capitulation likely runs ~0.54–0.55 given subsequent distribution—this area is a magnet and resistance confluence. Expect supply to appear into first test; success depends on breadth/volume on the breakout.
• Volume profile suggests a local high-volume node around 0.53–0.54 (chop zone) and a lighter pocket up to ~0.55–0.56—if 0.535 gives way, price can traverse that pocket quickly.

9. Pattern diagnostics and candle reads

• Hourly ascending triangle with higher lows pressing against 0.533–0.535. This pattern after a sharp decline often resolves upward as sellers get absorbed.
• Daily candles post-Oct 10 show a hammer/long lower wick (Oct 11), bullish follow-through (Oct 12–13), then orderly pullback—textbook for a second-leg bounce attempt, now initiating.

10. Risk management framework for the setup

• Invalidation for the intraday long thesis: sustained loss of 0.520–0.517 (hourly structure breaks; triangle invalidated). Below 0.509 opens 0.505/0.498 retest.
• Reward/risk from a 0.526–0.527 pullback entry toward 0.553–0.555 is attractive (~5%–6% upside versus ~1.5%–2% stop if using 0.515–0.517 structure stops). Even a momentum entry above 0.535 can aim for 0.551–0.555 with stops back inside the range.

11. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (55%): Breakout above 0.535, grind to 0.543, shallow pause, extension to 0.551–0.555. Close near upper third of day’s range.
• Bull extension (30%): Strong breadth; quick tag of 0.558–0.562 (near R2/50% Fib) before mean-reverting to ~0.55.
• Bear fade (15%): Rejection at 0.533–0.535; pullback to 0.522–0.518. If 0.517 fails, 0.509–0.505 retest; bounce back to 0.52 by session end.

Why Buy here?

• Multi-indicator confluence: hourly uptrend + ascending triangle, improving momentum (RSI/MACD), supportive OBV, and a well-defined resistance trigger at 0.535 with measured target aligning to Fib 38.2% (~0.55). Post-capitulation basing favors upside probes to test supply.
• Tactical entry preference: Limit buy on a dip to 0.526–0.527 captures better R:R while respecting the intraday trend (near Kijun/20EMA). Alternate: breakout buy >0.535 if momentum/volume expand.

Execution notes

• If filled on 0.526–0.527, look for first scale/assessment near 0.539–0.543 (prior supply, near R1) and push the remainder toward 0.553–0.555. If momentum stalls below 0.535 for several hours, reassess; a decisive loss of 0.517 invalidates the near-term long bias.

Prediction (24h)

• Drift higher with a breakout attempt over 0.535. Expected high 0.553–0.558; expected low on dips 0.520–0.517 barring new macro shocks.