CRV’s Bear-Flag Bounce Into Supply: Fade 0.47–0.48 for a Drop Toward 0.445

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for CRV (Curve DAO Token) Current snapshot

• Timestamp: 2025-11-13 03:56 UTC
• Price: 0.465232
• 24h structure (hourly): Bounce from 0.450–0.452 to 0.465–0.466 after intraday selloff; supply overhead 0.472–0.488; key support 0.445–0.452.
• Liquidity clusters: support 0.450/0.445/0.429; resistance 0.480/0.487/0.505/0.523.

1. Market structure and trend (Daily → 4H/1H)

• Daily structure: Persistent downtrend since mid-August highs (~0.88–0.94). Post-October 10 capitulation (intraday low ~0.237, close ~0.506) led to a broad, lower-high consolidation. Successive peaks: ~0.633 (Oct 13), ~0.579 (Oct 26), ~0.540–0.555 (Nov 10), followed by a rollover to 0.468 (Nov 11). The sequence of lower highs and lower lows remains intact.
• 4H/1H microstructure: After Nov 10 pop to ~0.54, price faded sharply to ~0.45, then rebounded to ~0.465. Price is carving a bear-flagging channel between ~0.45–0.49. Rallies into 0.48–0.49 get sold; dips to 0.45–0.452 see responsive bids.
• Conclusion: Dominant daily downtrend; intraday a weak bounce within a developing bear flag.

2. Moving Averages (trend confluence)

• Daily 20SMA/EMA: Estimated ~0.52–0.53 and declining. Price is below the 20D, indicating bearish short-term trend.
• Daily 50SMA: Estimated ~0.62–0.66 and falling; acts as overhead supply if reached.
• Daily 200SMA: Estimated well above (~0.80–1.00), confirming macro downtrend.
• EMA stack (9/21 on daily): Bearishly aligned (9EMA below 21EMA), both sloping down.
• 1H 20/50 EMA: 20EMA curling up modestly from the bounce, 50EMA flat-to-down; price oscillating around/just above 1H VWAP/20EMA, below 1H 200EMA. This is classic transient relief strength inside a broader downtrend.

3. Momentum (RSI, Stochastics, MACD)

• Daily RSI(14): Likely mid-30s to low-40s. It bounced off oversold (~Nov 6–7), but failed to reclaim 50 and rolled back below 45 after the Nov 10 spike—bearish momentum regime.
• Daily MACD: Below zero. Histogram turned up into Nov 10 bounce, now flattening and beginning to contract—momentum waning again.
• Daily Stochastics: Recovered from oversold during Nov 7–10 rally, now curling lower from midline—suggests renewed downside pressure.
• 1H RSI: Rebounded from oversold on the 0.45 tag to roughly neutral (~48–52), consistent with a reactionary bounce nearing resistance.

4. Volatility and ranges (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• Daily ATR(14): Recent ranges 0.02–0.07; latest wide days ~0.06–0.07. Conservatively estimate ATR ~0.045–0.055. From 0.465, a 1x ATR move suggests 0.420–0.520 as probable extremes over 1–2 days.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Mid-band ~20SMA ~0.52; price trades below mid-band, hovering near lower band 0.45–0.46. Near-lower-band behavior with a downsloping mid-band implies trend continuation after corrective bounces.
• 1H Bollinger: Price approaches mid/upper band around 0.465–0.472 after a weak bounce; typical spot where rallies fade in downtrends.

5. Volume, flow, and breadth (Volume, OBV, MFI)

• Volume character: Down legs (Nov 11) show heavier volume versus rebounds—sign of distribution. The massive Oct 28 volume with a close down (0.556 → 0.530) marked a strong supply event; subsequent attempts to recover failed.
• OBV (qualitative): Lower highs; no evidence of sustained accumulation.
• Money Flow index (qualitative): Mid-range (~40–50) and rolling over—confirms no bullish thrust in flows.

6. Support/Resistance map

• Resistance:
  • 0.480–0.488: Intraday supply and daily pivot R1 zone; repeated rejection area.
  • 0.505: Psychological and post-crash shelf; prior daily close (Oct 10) pivot.
  • 0.523–0.540: Nov 10 pop, heavy sellers re-emerged here; major supply cap.
• Support:
  • 0.452–0.455: Intraday demand where bounces start (today’s low ~0.450–0.452).
  • 0.445: Classic S1 from pivots; strong intraday shelf.
  • 0.429–0.424: Nov 3 close/Nov 2–4 demand; next downside magnet if 0.445 fails.
  • 0.420: Round-number handle and Nov 6 close; within 1x ATR of current.

7. Pivots (Classic, using recent H0.488, L0.446, C~0.465)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.466
• R1 ≈ 0.487
• S1 ≈ 0.445
• R2 ≈ 0.508
• S2 ≈ 0.424 Price currently hovers near P; typical sell location is between P and R1 during downtrends, aiming for S1.

8. VWAP and anchored reference

• Intraday VWAP (1H, today): Roughly ~0.458–0.461; price slightly above VWAP now, often a bull trap inside broader downtrends. Expect sellers near 0.472–0.487 where volume builds and R1 sits.
• Anchored VWAP (from Oct 10 capitulation): Still well above current price due to subsequent rallies being sold; no buyer control at higher-timeframe VWAPs.

9. Ichimoku Cloud (Daily and 1H)

• Daily: Price below Kumo; Senkou Span ahead is red; Tenkan < Kijun; price below both—classic bearish alignment. Kijun (~0.53) sits far above, acting as a distant magnet only if a squeeze occurs.
• 1H: Price attempts to reclaim Tenkan; Kijun/Cloud overhead around 0.472–0.485. Expect rejection at or just below cloud.

10. Fibonacci mapping

• From Nov 3 low 0.429 to Nov 10 high 0.540 (range 0.111):
  • 38.2%: 0.498
  • 50%: 0.485
  • 61.8%: 0.471
  • 78.6%: 0.450 Current price 0.465 sits below the 61.8% (0.471) and above 78.6% (0.450). Classical behavior: a failed reclaim of 0.471 often resolves to a 78.6% test (0.450) and possibly a full retrace toward 0.429. The 61.8% level at 0.471 aligns with our preferred short entry on a bounce.

11. Pattern recognition

• Bear flag: After a swift drop from ~0.54 to ~0.45, the consolidation up to ~0.48–0.49 is tight and upward sloping—typical for a bear flag. Measured move (flagpole ~0.09, 0.54→0.45) implies a downside target near 0.45 - 0.09 ≈ 0.36 on a full breakdown. Near-term, however, 0.445/0.429 are the more immediate objectives.
• Candles: Nov 11 produced a strong bearish candle with a long upper wick; today’s intraday candles show a rebound that is stalling under prior supply.

12. Statistical/seasonal micro-comment

• The sequence of post-spike fade days is persistent. With ATR elevated and rallies sold, probability favors another test of S1 (0.445) in the next 24 hours, with whipsaws around the pivot (0.466).

13. Risk framing and scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Price fades rallies into 0.472–0.487 and retests 0.452–0.445 (S1). Close in the 0.446–0.458 zone.
• Bear extension (25%): Clean break of 0.445 leads to a momentum drive toward 0.432–0.429 (S2 vicinity) before responsive buying. Requires modest expansion in volume.
• Bull squeeze (20%): If 0.487 is reclaimed on strong momentum and volume, price can spike to 0.500–0.505 (R2 proximity) and, in an extreme case, tag 0.523. This would negate the immediate short thesis.

14. Confluence summary (why short the bounce)

• Price below daily 20/50/200 MAs; EMA stack bearish.
• Momentum indicators (RSI/MACD/Stoch) in bearish regimes; 1H RSI neutral after a weak bounce.
• Price trades below daily BB mid-band; near lower band with a downsloping mid-band—trend continuation bias.
• Pivot confluence: P ~0.466, R1 ~0.487, S1 ~0.445; ideal to sell near P→R1 and target S1.
• Fibonacci: 61.8% retracement at 0.471 has failed; 78.6% (0.450) likely to be revisited.
• Volume: Rallies lighter; down legs heavier—distribution.
• Structure: Clear bear flag with lower highs; 0.48–0.49 is a sticky supply zone.

15. Trade Plan (Short setup)

• Bias: Sell (short)
• Entry: Optimal near 0.472 (61.8% Fib / 1H supply just under R1). If momentum overshoots, scale up to 0.480–0.487; but base plan uses 0.472.
• Stop (not part of schema, but essential): 0.491 (above R1/last intraday swing and the 0.49–0.50 supply shelf). Risk ≈ 0.019.
• Take Profit: 0.445 (S1 cluster, front-run deeper liquidity at 0.442–0.445). Reward ≈ 0.027.
• Risk/Reward: ≈ 1:1.4 from 0.472 to 0.491/0.445. Improves materially if filled closer to 0.480–0.485.
• Time horizon: 6–24 hours. If not filled within the next session or if 0.487 reclaims with momentum, reassess.

16. What would invalidate

• A strong reclaim and hourly close above 0.49 with volume expansion, followed by acceptance above 0.50–0.505 (and 1H/4H momentum flip) would invalidate the near-term short and open 0.523.

Bottom line forecast (24h)

• Expect CRV to fade into resistance 0.472–0.487 and rotate down toward 0.452–0.445. A decisive break of 0.445 can extend to 0.432–0.429. Conversely, a squeeze through 0.487 would target 0.500–0.505, with 0.523 as a stretch.

Note: This is a technical view based solely on supplied data. Manage risk; crypto can gap and overshoot levels, especially around liquidity pockets.