DEXE: Sell-the-Rip Setup Under Daily Pivot—Fade 6.66, Target 6.36 in a Compressed Weekend Tape

Executive summary and 24h path forecast

• Baseline view (next 24h): Sideways-to-down drift with a test of 6.52 support and a high-probability extension into the 6.36–6.40 demand zone, unless 6.70–6.74 breaks and holds on volume.
• Trade stance: Fade bounces into the 6.66–6.72 supply cluster; target a rotation back toward 6.36. If 6.74/6.84 reclaims decisively, reassess for a squeeze into ~6.95–7.02.

1. Market regime and structure

• Regime: Post-crash mean-reversion and compression. After the Oct-10 volatility event (extreme wick, step-change in realized vol), price based between 6.27–7.28 and is now compressing near 6.6.
• Trend hierarchy:
  • Higher timeframe (daily): Down/neutral. Price trades below the 20D SMA and below key post-crash reclaim lines; lower highs since Oct-14 (7.21 → 7.28 → 6.79 → 6.74).
  • Intraday (hourly): Micro downtrend since the 10/24 21:00 spike to 6.739; sequence of lower highs (6.739 → 6.710 → 6.669 → 6.640) and progressively lower lows (6.618 → 6.599 → 6.563 → 6.517), consistent with a gentle bearish channel.
• Range map:
  • Resistance: 6.66–6.74 (hourly supply and pivot confluence), then 6.84 and 6.97 (R1/R2 pivots), higher at 7.14 (major 23.6% retrace from pre-crash high) and 7.20–7.28 (post-crash swing high cluster).
  • Support: 6.52 (S1), 6.40/6.36 (prior reaction lows / S2 neighborhood), deeper 6.30–6.27 (multi-touch daily pivot base).

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily SMA20 (approx): ~7.9, well above spot 6.62 → bearish bias on the swing timeframe.
• Daily SMA50 (approx): upper-8s to low-9s, above price → confirms broader downtrend from early Oct highs.
• Daily EMA9/EMA21 (approx): EMA9 ~6.6–6.7, EMA21 ~7.1–7.3; price oscillating around EMA9 but below EMA21 → short-term equilibrium under a descending medium-term signal line.
• Hourly MAs: Price oscillates around the 20–50H MAs; rejects on tests above, consistent with a controlled intraday down channel. Implication: MA stack favors sell-the-rip while price remains below 6.74/6.84.

3. Momentum suite

• Daily RSI(14): Low-to-mid 40s. Mildly bearish but off oversold → room to move either way; momentum not strong enough to force a breakout.
• Hourly RSI(14): Mid-40s to ~50 with lower highs in RSI aligning with price lower highs → momentum confirms the intraday down channel.
• MACD (daily): Below zero; histogram contraction suggests seller momentum waning but no confirmed bull cross yet → susceptible to pop-and-fail rallies.
• MACD (hourly): Around the zero line; frequent whipsaws typical of compression. Slight negative tilt into 6.6.
• Stoch RSI (hourly): Cycling quickly; most recent signals failing near 6.66–6.70 → momentum exhaustion on bounces. Implication: Momentum prevents sustained upside; favors fading into resistance.

4. Volatility and compression

• ATR(14, daily) estimate: ~0.45–0.65 post-crash, shrinking. A 24h move of 0.25–0.40 is reasonable → puts 6.36 well within reach from 6.62.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Mid-band ~7.9, lower band near mid-5s due to legacy vol. Price sits below the mid-band and in the lower half of the envelope → sell-rally bias.
• Bollinger (hourly): Bands tightened; width ~0.12–0.16. With Keltner channels, a light “squeeze” regime implies a directional break likely within the session; probability skew favors a push to S1 before any larger move. Implication: Compression plus lower-highs favors a break lower first; volatility expansion target ~6.40–6.36.

5. Ichimoku (daily, standard 9/26/52)

• Price below Kumo; Tenkan below Kijun; Lagging span below price/cloud locations (given the pre-crash highs) → systemically bearish.
• Kijun (26-period mid) is much higher (reflecting September highs) → gravity remains downward until reclaimed. Implication: Until a decisive daily close above ~7.14/7.28, rallies are corrective.

6. Volume, OBV, VWAP

• Post-crash volume decaying trend → seller aggression cooling, but also no strong dip-buying sponsorship at resistance.
• OBV: Flat/sideways since Oct-18 → lack of accumulation signal.
• VWAP (intraday 10/25): ~6.61–6.63; price oscillates near VWAP with rejections above → mean-reversion short edge from 6.66+ into VWAP/lower band. Implication: No volume-backed breakout; VWAP magnet below resistance supports sell-the-rip.

7. Fibonacci reference levels

• From pre-crash swing (H Oct-02 ~12.38) to post-crash closing trough (C Oct-10 ~5.62, ignoring the anomalous deep wick):
  • 23.6%: ~7.14 (key pivot, repeatedly rejected)
  • 38.2%: ~8.14
  • 50%: ~9.00
  • 61.8%: ~9.86 Price failing under 7.14 for weeks confirms the corrective nature of current bounces.
• From post-crash low (Oct-11 ~5.39) to reaction high (Oct-17 ~7.28): 50–61.8% retrace zone sits ~6.33–6.63; price is inside this golden pocket, with the lower bound (6.33–6.36) a magnet when momentum sours. Implication: The 6.33–6.36 confluence is a highly probable test in the next down-impulse.

8. Classical pivots (derived from 10/24 intraday H/L/C)

• H ~6.782, L ~6.461, C ~6.710 → Pivot P ≈ 6.651.
• R1 ≈ 6.841, R2 ≈ 6.972; S1 ≈ 6.520, S2 ≈ 6.330. Current price 6.62 sits just under P; repeated rejections near P support a tactical short toward S1/S2. Clean upside only emerges on sustained hold above P plus a firm reclaim of 6.74/6.84.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Descending channel on the hourly; faint symmetrical triangle evidence broke bearishly in micro, now retesting the breakdown zone 6.64–6.66.
• Candles: Multiple upper wicks near 6.66–6.70 show supply absorption; 21:00 10/24 spike to 6.739 faded quickly.
• Heikin-Ashi (intraday): Smaller bodies with upper wicks on bounces indicate indecision and failure to trend up. Implication: Supply is active above 6.66; probability-weighted outcome is rotation back to supports.

10. Scenario tree (24h)

• Base case (55%): Fade bounces 6.66–6.70, rotate to S1 6.52, extend to 6.38–6.36; settle 6.38–6.50 into the close.
• Bull breakout (30%): Quick reclaim of 6.70–6.74, acceptance above 6.74 opens 6.84; squeeze target 6.95–7.02 if volume expands. Failure here likely reverts to 6.60.
• Tail risk (15%): Liquidity vacuum weekend move; swift wick into 6.27–6.30 or stop-run above 6.97 toward 7.14 before mean reversion.

11. Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Sell rallies while below 6.74/6.84.
• Entry: 6.66 (limit sell) inside the 6.66–6.72 supply band and right under daily pivot P.
• Target: 6.36 (take profit) where S2/Fib confluence sits and where prior buyers defended.
• Risk guide (not an order, informational): Invalidation on sustained reclaim/hold above 6.74–6.84; a practical stop for systems would be ~6.75–6.84 depending on risk tolerance.
• Reward/Risk guide: From 6.66 to 6.36 is 0.30; vs ~0.09–0.18 risk (6.75–6.84) → ~1.7x to 3.3x, acceptable for a range fade.

12. Why not long here?

• Price below daily 20SMA and under 7.14 pivot; hourly lower-highs; repeated supply response at 6.66–6.70; momentum waning on bounces. Longs carry unfavorable location until a clear reclaim above 6.74/6.84 flips the tape.

13. Time and tape triggers to watch

• Rejections with rising ask-imbalance near 6.66–6.70.
• Expansion in delta/volume on pushes down through 6.58 and 6.52.
• Failure to accept below 6.52 would argue for partial cover and re-offer higher.

Conclusion

• Probability-weighted path is a controlled drift lower into 6.52 then 6.38–6.36 over the next 24 hours, unless 6.74/6.84 is reclaimed with commitment. Strategy: Sell the rally; target S2/Fib confluence at 6.36.