DEXE poised for an intraday squeeze: Buy the 6.65 dip, aim for 6.88 within 24 hours

Comprehensive multi-tool technical walkthrough for DEXE over the next 24 hours

Timeframe and data used

• Higher time frame: Daily candles from late July through Oct 26, 2025
• Intraday: Hourly bars from Oct 25–26
• Current price: 6.6843 (20:55 UTC)

Executive context

• Massive September run-up to 12–13 followed by a sharp capitulation (Oct 10 flash-crash/structural gap) reset the regime. Since Oct 12–24, DEXE has formed a broad base between 6.13–7.20, with the last three sessions showing constructive higher intraday lows and a test of 6.80.
• Today’s session trades above the prior day’s pivot and hovers just above R1, with a clean magnet to R2 and a tactical shot at the 6.80–6.90 supply pocket if momentum persists.

1. Market structure and price action

• Daily swing points
  • Key demand: 6.13–6.20 (10/24 low), 6.36–6.40 (cluster of lows 10/19–10/23), 6.45–6.50 (multiple intraday reactions 10/25–10/26)
  • Near-term supply: 6.80–6.83 (today’s intraday high zone and repeated hourly rejections), 7.00 round, 7.13 (10/21 high)
• Regime: Post-capitulation accumulation. Daily lower-high sequence from early October is slowing; the last week is a contracting range with slight upward skew. On the hourly, a staircase of higher lows from 6.43 → 6.49 → 6.70 → 6.72 (intraday) prints an emerging uptrend channel.
• Candles: Intraday prints show dips bought above 6.66–6.67 (23.6% retrace—see Fib). Wicky rejections into 6.80 indicate overhead supply but not aggressive selling pressure—more like light supply absorption.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• SMA(7) ≈ 6.565, SMA(14) ≈ 6.642, SMA(20) ≈ 7.279 (inflated by early-October highs)
  • Price > SMA(7) and > SMA(14): short-term bullish bias
  • Price < SMA(20): medium-term still corrective within longer downtrend from September peak
• EMA view (qualitative): 12/26 EMA spread near flat-to-slightly negative on daily; on hourly, EMAs are positively stacked, consistent with the local uptrend.

3. Momentum

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 55: neutral-bullish, room to extend before overbought
• Hourly RSI oscillates mid-50s to low-60s: constructive, not extended
• MACD (qualitative): Daily histogram recovering toward zero; signal convergence suggests a nascent bull turn. Hourly MACD positive but flattening—consistent with a minor pullback before reattempting highs.

4. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) ≈ 0.58. Implies 24h expected range around ±0.58 from the current mark.
  • Probabilistic band: 6.10–7.26 (using ATR). Within a stable day, 6.55–6.90 is the more realistic tactical band.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 7.28; price trades below the mid, inside lower half of the 20-day envelope. In a non-trending context, this biases mean reversion upward over the next sessions.

5. Volume and participation

• Post-crash volumes elevated mid-October; recent sessions show declining turnover as price compresses—typical of late-stage consolidation. Today’s intraday volumes are moderate during pushes, not capitulative on dips—bullish microstructure.
• Implicit POC around 6.60–6.70 given repeated closes/exchanges in that area—acts as balance magnet and springboard.
• OBV (qualitative): Stabilizing, slight uptick; no distribution signature.

6. Support/resistance mapping

• Immediate supports: 6.67–6.65 (23.6% retrace, intraday balance), 6.58 pivot, 6.50, then 6.45 and 6.36–6.40
• Immediate resistances: 6.80–6.83, 6.90, 7.00–7.05, 7.13
• Conclusion: Price sits atop a layered support stack with nearby resistance. Structure favors a buy-the-dip approach into 6.62–6.66 aiming for a squeeze toward 6.80–6.90.

7. Pivot points (Classic, computed from 10/25 H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 6.583
• R1 ≈ 6.673 (near current price), R2 ≈ 6.794, R3 ≈ 7.004
• S1 ≈ 6.462, S2 ≈ 6.373
• Today’s action above P and around R1 leans toward an R2 test (≈6.79). If R2 breaks on momentum, a probe into 6.88–6.90 is feasible.

8. Fibonacci analysis

• Swing considered: 10/24 low 6.131 → 10/26 intraday high 6.804 (Δ=0.673)
  • 23.6%: 6.645; 38.2%: 6.547; 50%: 6.468; 61.8%: 6.388
• Current 6.684 ≈ just above 23.6% retrace—shallow pullback typical of strong minor trends. Holding above 6.645 keeps the pattern intact for another leg up toward 6.80–6.90.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Tenkan (9-period mid) ≈ (7.133 high + 6.131 low)/2 ≈ 6.632
• Kijun (26-period mid) ≈ elevated (influenced by Sept highs) around 9.7 → price far below cloud: long-term bearish regime
• Short-term: price above Tenkan—impulsive bias over the next day while below the broader cloud.

10. Mean reversion vs trend

• Short-term trend up (hourly), medium-term down/sideways (daily under SMA20 and cloud), long-term bearish from Sept peak. In such mixed regimes, tactical longs from support toward nearby resistance statistically outperform shorts initiated mid-range.

11. Pattern readouts

• Double-bottom/accumulation: 6.36–6.40 zone defended multiple times
• Ascending micro-channel on hourly with higher lows; resistance shelf at 6.80 forming an ascending triangle feel—favors an upside resolution on enough volume.
• No active bearish reversal candles on daily; intraday pullbacks are controlled.

12. Statistical and scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (60%): Hold above 6.64–6.65, rotate through 6.75–6.80, attempt breakout; peak 6.85–6.90 before mean-reverting toward 6.75–6.80 by session end
• Bear case (25%): Lose 6.645, slide to 6.58 pivot; extension to 6.50–6.47 if liquidity is thin; deeper flush to 6.36 is low-probability without a catalyst
• Bull extension (15%): Clean break 6.83–6.85 with volume, quick run to 6.95–7.00 (R3 zone), then fade

13. Risk management and trade design

• Long entry zone: 6.62–6.66 (ideally 6.65 limit near Fib 23.6%/prior R1 flip/PVWAP neighborhood)
• Profit target: 6.86–6.90 (front-run supply and round-number offers). I select 6.88 for optimized risk-reward with a realistic fill probability inside 24h.
• Logical stop (not required in output but recommended): 6.47–6.50 (below 50% Fib and prior micro-bases). This yields roughly 1.5–2.0R to the 6.88 target depending on exact fill.

14. Confluence summary

• Bullish: Price > SMA7/14 and > Tenkan; RSI ~55; hourly higher lows; shallow 23.6% pullback holding; classic pivots favor R2 test; accumulation signals at 6.60–6.70
• Bearish headwinds: Price < SMA20 and below daily cloud; 6.80–7.00 supply overhead; broader trend still damaged post-October flush
• Net: Tactical long with modest upside edge into 6.85–6.90, invalidated on a clean loss of 6.58 then 6.50

15. 24-hour prediction

• Expect a retest of 6.80. If 6.80–6.83 breaks, momentum likely carries to 6.86–6.90. Dips into 6.62–6.66 should be bought; loss of 6.58 would warn of a deeper mean reversion to 6.50.

Bottom line

• Bias: Buy-the-dip for a push toward 6.88 within 24 hours while guarding against a slip back into 6.58–6.50 if the 6.645 Fib fails.