DEXE Coils for a Push: Buying the 7.20–7.24 Pullback for a 7.75–7.80 Test

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish (continuation of short-term uptrend), expecting a grind higher toward 7.55–7.80, with key resistance break at 7.60 unlocking 7.75–7.85.
• Optimal plan: Buy pullbacks above 7.18–7.24 trendline/Fib support; take profit into 7.75–7.80 resistance zone. Risk pivots if 7.10/6.98 fail.

1. Market regime and structure

• Higher time frame context (daily): After the Oct 10 capitulation/flash-crash and subsequent basing, price printed a new swing low on Oct 30 (6.199), then pivoted up with strong breadth on Oct 31 and Nov 1. The sequence over the last three dailies is higher low (6.199 → 6.291 → 6.946) and higher high (7.150 → 7.608), confirming a nascent uptrend within a broader medium-term downtrend (price still far below Sept–Oct highs 12–13).
• Short-term structure (hourly): Today set a higher low at 7.178 and ranged 7.18–7.57, respecting the rising intraday trendline from 10/30. The last hours show compression around 7.25–7.30 — an indecision/doji-type balance after testing both ends of the day’s range. This is typical pre-break continuation if the trendline holds.

2. Price action diagnostics

• Supports: 7.18–7.20 (today’s session low + trendline), 7.10–7.12 (38.2% retrace of 10/31–11/1 upswing), 6.96–6.98 (Oct 31 close + S1 pivot), 6.70 (10/24 close), 6.29 (major swing low).
• Resistances: 7.35–7.37 (hourly supply shelf), 7.57–7.60 (today’s high and prior rejection band), 7.73–7.76 (Aug 30–31 supply), 8.00 (psych), 8.38–8.50 (Aug supply cluster).
• Candles: 10/31 wide-range bullish close near highs; 11/1 continuation with upper wick (supply at 7.6); 11/2 forming spinning top/doji near 7.26 after both-side probes — indicative of coil before the next move.

3. Moving averages and trend metrics

• SMA(8) ≈ 6.83; SMA(20) ≈ 6.73. Spot 7.26 > both — short-term uptrend confirmed.
• Likely SMA(50) above spot (dragged up by Sept spikes), so medium trend still down; short-term strength within broader repair.
• EMA stack (inferred): 9/12 EMAs curling up, crossover momentum positive since 10/31.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily, est.): mid-to-high 50s, climbing from oversold — room before overbought; supports continuation.
• Stochastic (14,3,3, est.): %K ≈ 76% (using 6.131–7.609 window); bullish zone but not extreme — favors trend carry.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Histogram turned positive post 10/31; signal cross likely bullish. On hourly, minor fade after morning pop, consistent with consolidation not reversal.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14, daily, est.): ≈ 0.65–0.75. From 7.26, an expected 24h envelope is roughly 6.55–7.95. Today’s realized range (~0.39 so far) sits inside ATR, leaving space for a late push.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2, daily, est.): Mid ≈ 6.73; upper ≈ 7.9; lower ≈ 5.5. BB% ≈ 0.7 — price in upper half with room to upper band; not extended.

6. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing A (10/31 low 6.29) → B (11/1 high 7.608):
  • 38.2%: 7.105; 50%: 6.949; 61.8%: 6.794.
  • Today’s low 7.178 held above 38.2% — healthy shallow pullback; bias to retest highs.
• Larger swing (10/30 low 6.199) → (10/7 high 13.54) implies big-picture retrace targets 9.00/9.87/10.74 — far above, but underscores upside headroom if the base extends. Irrelevant for 24h targets but contextually bullish.

7. Ichimoku (daily, inferred)

• Tenkan-sen ≈ (9-period high+low)/2 ~ (7.61 + 6.13)/2 ≈ 6.87; spot 7.26 > Tenkan — short-term bullish.
• Kijun-sen (26-mid) likely ~9–10 given Oct highs/lows; spot below Kijun — larger trend still bearish regime. This is a classic early-stage recovery profile: price above Tenkan, below Kijun, often leading to mean reversion rallies toward the cloud in coming sessions. Chikou likely still below past price — caution on breakouts, but fine for tactical longs.

8. Parabolic SAR (qualitative)

• PSAR likely flipped below price after 10/31 surge; dynamic support trails near 6.9–7.0. Long bias intact while PSAR stays below.

9. Pivots and intraday levels (from 11/1 H=7.6085, L=6.9467, C=7.3261)

• Pivot P ≈ 7.2938; R1 ≈ 7.6409; S1 ≈ 6.9790; R2 ≈ 7.9556; S2 ≈ 6.6320.
• Current 7.26 is just under P — slight intraday headwind; reclaiming 7.29 opens a path to 7.64 (aligns with 7.57–7.60 resistance). Clean confluence for take-profit.

10. Volume and participation

• Daily volumes elevated on green days (Oct 31: 17.3M; Nov 1: 15.4M; today already >10.6M). Accumulation signature, with supply absorbed on dips. Hourly spikes at 07:00 and 15:00 coincided with pushes toward resistance — healthy but not blow-off.

11. Pattern recognition

• Potential micro “cup-and-handle” from 10/31 to 11/2: cup 6.29 → 7.60, handle pullback to 7.18. Break above 7.60 would target ~8.90 by measured move, but likely unfolds over days, not just 24h. For the next day, a first leg toward 7.75–7.85 is feasible if 7.60 clears with force.
• Alternatively, a small ascending triangle may be forming (higher lows into flat 7.57–7.60 cap). Probability favors an upside break while higher lows persist.

12. Statistical and mean-reversion checks

• Price z-score vs SMA20 with stdev ~0.6: (7.26–6.73)/0.6 ≈ +0.88 — not stretched. No immediate overbought risk; room to mean-revert upward toward upper band.

13. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (60%): Hold 7.18–7.24, reclaim pivot 7.29, then test 7.35, push 7.57–7.60; if volume expands, extension to 7.75–7.85. Close near 7.60–7.75.
• Pullback case (30%): Lose 7.24, probe 7.12–7.10 (38.2% Fib) and even S1 6.98; buyers defend; range closes 7.20–7.35.
• Bear break (10%): Sustained below 6.98 triggers deeper test 6.70–6.60; would negate the immediate long idea.

14. Confluence matrix

• Bullish: Price > SMA8/20; MACD positive; stochastic mid-high; BB room to upper; higher lows; Fib 38.2% respected; PSAR long; accumulation volume; potential ascending triangle.
• Bearish risks: Below daily Kijun/50SMA; intraday under pivot 7.29 at the moment; known supply at 7.57–7.60; today’s lower high vs yesterday (7.57 < 7.61) shows sellers defending — requires a push to flip.

15. Execution plan

• Entry logic: Prefer a buy-the-dip limit in the 7.20–7.24 pocket (trendline/Fib confluence) to skew R:R positively while staying above structural support 7.18–7.20. Given current 7.26, a 7.24 limit is optimal for fill probability without sacrificing structure.
• Targeting: First objective 7.57–7.60; stretch target 7.75–7.85 aligned with R1/overhead supply. I’ll set TP at 7.78 to front-run offers below 7.80 and align with ATR-based range extension.
• Risk control (not requested but prudent): A protective stop would logically sit below 7.05–6.98 (under S1 and 50% retrace), e.g., 7.03, to avoid whips into the main support. This yields an attractive R:R toward 7.78.

Conclusion and 24h call

• The weight of evidence supports a Buy-the-dip approach for the next 24 hours. Expect a push to retest 7.57–7.60 and, on breakout, extension to ~7.78. Failure to reclaim 7.29 pivot quickly increases the odds of a deeper dip to 7.10/6.98, but the structure remains constructive while 7.10 holds.