Dogecoin Price Analysis Powered by AI

DOGE Poised For A Pivot-Driven Push: Buy The Dip Toward 0.226 For A Run At 0.239

Overview and context

Instrument: Dogecoin (DOGE)
Current price: 0.229005
Timeframes analyzed: Daily OHLC (May–Aug), Hourly (Aug 7–8)
Objective: Predict next 24 hours, decide Buy/Sell, and set optimal entry and target

Price structure and market regime

Daily market structure: After peaking on 2025-07-21 (H ≈ 0.2868), DOGE sold off to 2025-07-31 low (≈ 0.2099). Since 2025-08-02 low (≈ 0.1912), price has been carving higher lows (0.1912 → 0.1989 → 0.1997 → 0.2053 → 0.2290 today) and has now reclaimed a key prior supply band at 0.223–0.226. This shifts daily structure from bearish to neutral-to-bullish.
Hourly structure: Clear sequence of higher highs/higher lows across Aug 8 session, culminating in 0.2291. The 0.2267–0.2275 zone served as intraday demand on the last two pullbacks.
Conclusion: Structural break above 0.223–0.226 suggests buyers taking control; near-term trend is up with supportive pullbacks.

Key levels (confluence of historical S/R, Fibs, pivots, and volume nodes)

Immediate supports: 0.2261 (daily pivot P), 0.2247–0.2250 (prior cap turned base), 0.2230 (S1), 0.2201 (today’s session low), 0.2171 (S2).
Immediate resistances: 0.2320 (R1), 0.2351 (R2), 0.2393 (38.2% daily retracement from 0.2868→0.2099), 0.2406–0.2415 (7/23–7/27 closes), 0.2483 (50% retrace).
High-volume nodes (from the recent range): 0.223–0.226 (acceptance area), lighter volume above 0.229 until ~0.235–0.241 (likely to accelerate into that pocket on a break).

Fibonacci mapping

Swing high (7/21) 0.286756 to swing low (7/31) 0.209873:
- 38.2% retrace ≈ 0.2393
- 50% ≈ 0.2483
- 61.8% ≈ 0.2574 Price is currently below 38.2%, implying first major upside test is 0.239–0.241.
Short-term A-B-C-Extension (A=0.191214 on 8/2, B=0.210413 on 8/4, C=0.199739 on 8/5):
- 1.618 extension ≈ 0.2308 (we’re trading just under/around it)
- 2.0 extension ≈ 0.2381 (aligns with daily 38.2% zone) Confluence argues for a tactical target in 0.238–0.241.

Moving averages and trend filters

Short-term (7-SMA, quick EMA): The 7-day SMA ≈ 0.202 (computed from 7/31–8/6 closes) — price is well above, confirming near-term momentum.
Intermediate (20-SMA): Estimated ≈ 0.226 ± 0.003; price has reclaimed it — first bullish checkmark.
Medium (50-SMA): Estimated ≈ 0.200 ± 0.01 (given June–July range around 0.16–0.20 then July pop); price above 50-SMA.
EMA stack (approx): 8-EMA ≈ 0.208–0.212, 21-EMA ≈ 0.220–0.223; price above both, suggesting bullish alignment.
Slope: 8- over 21-EMA bullish crossover likely occurred during Aug 6–8, supporting an emerging uptrend.

Momentum oscillators

Daily RSI (14): Likely mid-50s (neutral-bullish). This supports further upside without being overbought; room to run toward 0.239–0.241.
Hourly RSI (14): Likely in the 60–65 range after today’s push. Mild overbought is possible intraday, favoring a pullback to P (0.226) before continuation.
MACD (daily): Histogram turning up from negative, signal likely curling higher — early bullish phase.
MACD (hourly): Above zero with positive histogram, consistent with intraday uptrend; watch for a shallow reset on any dip toward 0.226.
Stochastic/ Stoch RSI (hourly): Likely >80 (overbought); pullback risk into 0.225–0.226 is elevated before next leg.
CCI (hourly): Likely >+100, confirming momentum; a mean-reversion blip wouldn’t break the structure.

Volatility, bands, and ranges

Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Price trading near/above mid-band. Upper band projected ~0.258± (wide due to July volatility); mid-band near ~0.226, now reclaimed. That generally precedes tests of upper half of the band (0.236–0.241 first).
Keltner Channels (daily, 20,1.5 ATR): With ATR contracted versus July, price crossing above the midline hints at a trend resumption to the upper channel. Hourly Keltner suggests support near 0.226.
ATR: Daily ATR ≈ 0.012–0.015; Hourly ATR ≈ 0.0018–0.0022. Expected next-24h swing envelope roughly 0.221–0.241 (if trend continues).

Volume, OBV, and VWAP

Volume: Today’s aggregated intraday activity (~2.78B) is elevated vs prior sessions (8/4–8/6 ~1.27–1.81B). Rising price on rising volume = healthy.
OBV (qualitative): Trending up since 8/02, confirming accumulation.
Session VWAP (hourly, Aug 8): Estimated around 0.225–0.226 early, pulling higher with late-session prints; price holding above VWAP into close is bullish. Any dip to VWAP/P (0.226) offers a high-probability buy-the-dip zone.

Ichimoku (trend-following)

Daily: Price likely below or near the lower edge of the cloud given the July drawdown; Tenkan likely crossed above Kijun in early Aug. That is an early bullish signal, with the cloud above acting as resistance into 0.239–0.245.
Hourly: Price above cloud; cloud sloping up; Kijun ~0.222–0.223 and Tenkan ~0.221–0.222 acted as springboards earlier. Momentum supported while price remains above the cloud; a mean reversion to ~0.226 would keep the setup intact.

Pivot points (derived from today’s H/L/C)

High 0.22910 / Low 0.22009 / Close 0.22900
Pivot P ≈ 0.22607
R1 ≈ 0.23204, R2 ≈ 0.23507
S1 ≈ 0.22303, S2 ≈ 0.21706 These align tightly with our S/R map and Fib confluences.

Candles and pattern reads

Daily candles (Aug 4–8): Transition from indecision to constructive green bodies; no upper shadow blow-off today, implying controlled advance.
Hourly candles: Multiple bullish continuation candles; shallow pullbacks bought around 0.226–0.227; late-hour prints near highs show steady demand without extreme wicks.
Heikin-Ashi (qualitative): Sequence of green bodies with small lower wicks — supportive of trend continuation.

Elliott Wave (tactical intraday)

The move off the 8/5 C-point (~0.1997) counts as: Wave 1 to ~0.210–0.212, Wave 2 to ~0.205, Wave 3 extending through ~0.227–0.229 (approaching 1.618 extension), suggesting a Wave 4 pullback toward P/VWAP (~0.226) before a final Wave 5 probe into 0.235–0.239.

ADX/DI and PSAR (trend confirmation)

ADX (14) daily: Likely rising from sub-20 into low-20s with +DI above –DI — early trend development.
Parabolic SAR (daily): Likely flipped below price around 0.221–0.223; on hourly, SAR dots will trail around 0.225–0.226, supporting buy-the-dip bias.

Risk, liquidity, and scenario planning (next 24 hours)

Base case (60–65%): Brief pullback to 0.225–0.226 (pivot/VWAP/structure), followed by continuation to 0.235–0.239. Acceptance above 0.232 (R1) increases odds of a push to 0.235 (R2). First major supply expected into 0.239–0.241 (Fib 38.2%/prior daily congestion).
Bullish extension (20–25%): Strong momentum breaks 0.239–0.241 and squeezes into 0.245–0.248 (daily 50% retrace). Would likely require a clean hourly bull flag and renewed volume expansion.
Bearish risk (15–20%): Loss of 0.226 and 0.223 (S1) with rising supply could send price to 0.220–0.221 and possibly 0.217 (S2). Structure turns fragile below 0.223; trend invalidation if daily closes back under 0.221.

Synthesis and trade plan

Confluence for longs: Reclaim of 20-SMA, EMA stack bullish, higher lows, strong participation, hourly uptrend, and clean pivot map with nearby support. Multiple frameworks (Fibs, pivots, VWAP, Ichimoku, OBV) cluster around 0.225–0.226 as the optimal dip-buy zone.
Profit target rationale: 0.238–0.241 has dense confluence (Fib 1.618 extension from short-term leg ~0.238, daily 38.2% retrace ~0.2393, historical supply near 0.240–0.241). Setting TP slightly below the band improves fill odds.
Risk management (suggested in-text; separate from schema): Stop loss below 0.2210 (under S1 break and below hourly cloud base). Risk ≈ 0.005–0.006 for entry 0.2261 with target 0.2392 (reward ≈ 0.0131) yields R:R ≈ 2.2–2.6.

Prediction for the next 24 hours

Expected path: Early dip toward 0.225–0.226, then grind/hop to 0.232–0.235, with a late-session attempt at 0.238–0.239 if volume persists. Range estimate: 0.223–0.241.

Bottom line

Bias: Buy the dip
Optimal entry: Around the daily pivot/VWAP cluster near 0.226
Target: 0.239 area (first major resistance confluence)
Invalidation: Sustained trade below 0.223 (S1) or a daily close back under 0.221 would negate the setup