DOGE: Inside-Day Coil at 38.2% Fib — Position for a VWAP Reclaim and LVN Fill

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for DOGE/USD (spot)

Timeframe coverage

• Daily (swing context): May 18, 2025 → Aug 15, 2025
• Intraday (hourly, most recent 24h): Aug 14–15, 2025
• Current price: 0.22530128

Executive summary (what stands out)

• Price is consolidating just above the 20‑day SMA after a sharp, high‑volume selloff on Aug 14, printing an inside day on Aug 15. That combination often precedes a directional break within 24–48 hours.
• The pullback halted almost exactly at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the Aug 2 low → Aug 13 high leg (0.191 → 0.2452), which is a textbook level for bullish continuation if held.
• Momentum cooled but remains neutral‑to‑constructive on daily RSI (~58) with short‑term intraday bullish divergence observed around 0.222–0.223.
• Structure: Higher low vs early Aug (0.201/0.199 zone), lower highs vs late July peak—range/coil dynamics. Risk is clearly defined below 0.218–0.220; upside magnet zones sit at 0.232–0.236 and 0.241–0.246.
• Probability‑weighted path (next 24h): Modest mean‑reversion higher toward 0.232–0.236 with a non‑trivial chance of a liquidity sweep into 0.221–0.223 before pushing up. Bias = buy dips.

1. Price structure and market profile

• Macro swing: July 18–21 impulse to ~0.287, followed by corrective leg into Aug 2 low ~0.191. Subsequent advance peaked Aug 13 at 0.2452. Current pullback from 0.2452 is the first significant retrace post-recovery, so far holding a higher low vs Aug 2 and vs Aug 4–5 basing (0.210–0.212).
• Range context since late July: Lower highs (0.287 → 0.273 → 0.245) but higher lows (0.191 → 0.201 → 0.223), tightening triangle/coil dynamics. Today’s inside day strengthens the “coiled spring” argument.
• Volume context: Aug 13–14 featured outsized volume (4.07B → 5.43B) with a rejection at 0.254–0.255 and a flush to 0.218. Aug 15 volume (~3.36B so far) is reduced—typical for an inside day consolidation.
• High‑volume nodes (HVN) and low‑volume nodes (LVN):
  • HVN around 0.222–0.226 (current value area, strong acceptance).
  • LVN/inefficiency above 0.232–0.236 (thin zone from the fast drop; likely to be “filled” on reversion).
  • Larger supply belt 0.241–0.246 (prior cluster and day highs).

2. Support and resistance (confluence)

• Immediate demand: 0.221–0.223 (hourly pivot lows on Aug 15, intraday accumulation, previous VA).
• Fib + MA confluence: 0.224–0.225 (38.2% retrace of 0.191 → 0.2452 sits ≈0.2245; price is hovering here; 20‑SMA ≈0.2208 just below).
• Secondary demand: 0.218–0.219 (50% retrace ≈0.218; yesterday’s washout low ~0.2181).
• Stronger base: 0.210–0.212 (Kijun vicinity / prior consolidation and Aug 4 daily close 0.2104).
• Immediate supply: 0.232–0.233 (hourly upper bound 0.2328 high; session VWAP magnet region).
• Next supply: 0.240–0.243 (recent rejection cluster) and 0.245–0.246 (Aug 13 closing zone; pre-break pivot).
• Major: 0.254–0.256 (Aug 14 high; start of the liquidation cascade).

3. Moving averages and trend bias

• SMA20 (est.) ≈ 0.2208: Upward sloping; price slightly above—constructive for trend continuation if maintained.
• SMA50 (est.) ≈ 0.205–0.210: Upward sloping; price well above—medium‑term trend remains positive.
• SMA200 (contextual, est.) ≈ upper 0.18s–low 0.19s: Price well above—long‑term uptrend intact.
• Short EMAs (9/21): Likely compressing post‑drop; 9‑EMA near 0.226–0.228, 21‑EMA near 0.221–0.223. Price consolidating between/around them often precedes a push toward the 9‑EMA first (≈0.228) and then tests the supply at 0.232–0.236.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (calculated): ≈ 58.3. Interpretation: Neutral‑bullish; pullback relieved overbought pressure without breaking trend.
• Hourly RSI: Oscillated mid‑40s to low‑50s throughout the session; bullish divergence noted between the 14:00–15:00 lows (price made a marginal lower low near 0.2219 while RSI held higher) → hints at near‑term upward mean reversion.
• Stochastic (intraday): K crossing above D from sub‑50 region in late session indicates momentum inflection up.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ≈ 0.019–0.020. After Aug 14 expansion (range ~0.0366), Aug 15 printed an inside day with a 0.221–0.233 range (~0.012), suggesting volatility compression.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (est.): Mid ≈ 0.2208; Upper ≈ 0.254; Lower ≈ 0.187. Price sits slightly above the midline. Volatility expanded yesterday; today’s inside day suggests a possible BB contraction starting—often a prelude to a directional move. Bias: with price above the mid, a tag of the mid‑upper band segment (0.232–0.240) is favored if support holds.

6. Fibonacci and harmonic structure

• Pullback retracement of the Aug 2 (0.1912) → Aug 13 (0.2452) leg:
  • 38.2%: ≈ 0.2245 (current stabilization zone—bullish if defended)
  • 50%: ≈ 0.2182 (yesterday’s low ≈ 0.2181—clean confluence)
  • 61.8%: ≈ 0.2117 (just above major base 0.210–0.212)
• Extension targets if the bounce resumes:
  • 0.236–0.241 (first reversion pocket)
  • 1.0 retest: 0.245
  • 1.272 ext. of the most recent sub‑swing: ≈ 0.251–0.253 (into prior supply)
• The neat hold at 38.2% after a one‑day liquidation is classic trend‑continuation behavior, provided 0.218 does not break on a closing basis.

7. Ichimoku framework (daily, qualitative estimate)

• Tenkan (9‑period mid): ≈ 0.231–0.233. Price is just below, indicating short‑term consolidation under fast baseline.
• Kijun (26‑period mid): ≈ 0.220–0.222. Price is slightly above/at Kijun—this is the battlefield. Holding above Kijun often resolves higher in trend.
• Senkou Span A/B (cloud): Likely flat‑to‑slightly upward around 0.225–0.233. Flat clouds tend to attract price; we are within/near that magnet.
• Chikou Span: Current price (0.225) vs price 26 periods back (~0.273 on Jul 20). Chikou is below historical price—keeps the longer‑term signal mixed, but near‑term resolution still favors a test of Tenkan once Kijun holds.

8. MACD and OBV

• MACD (daily, qualitative): Line remains above zero given the early‑Aug rally; histogram flipped negative post‑Aug 14 dump, indicating momentum pause rather than confirmed trend reversal. A shallow negative histogram that re‑contracts is often a buyable dip if price holds the 20‑SMA.
• On‑Balance Volume: Advanced from Aug 2 through Aug 13; retraced sharply Aug 14 but not to new lows, implying some accumulation remains intact. Today’s inside‑day OBV stabilization is constructive.

9. Candlesticks and pattern read

• Aug 14: Large bearish candle with long upper wick (near marubozu), high volume—capitulation‑style flush ending at 50% Fib.
• Aug 15: Inside day with small real body near prior close—indecision/absorption at support. Intraday showed higher low formation into the NY afternoon and close.
• Intraday rectangle: 0.222–0.232 consolidation; failed breakdowns near 0.222 were bid.

10. Intraday VWAP, mean reversion, and liquidity

• Session VWAP (Aug 15) sits near 0.226–0.227. Price closed a touch below VWAP (~0.2253), typical into a weekend where liquidity thins. VWAP often acts as a magnet on next session open; odds favor a probe back to 0.227–0.229.
• Liquidity pockets: Resting stops likely below 0.221–0.222; a quick liquidity sweep to 0.222/0.221 followed by reversal is a common setup. Above, thin air 0.232–0.236 can fill rapidly if momentum picks up.

11. Elliott wave take (heuristic)

• From Aug 2 low: (1) up into ~0.210–0.214, (2) shallow pullback, (3) extended leg to 0.245, (4) corrective drop into 38.2% (current), (5) pending? If this count is valid, a measured fifth could target 0.245 retest with interim pause at 0.236/0.241. Invalidation below 0.211–0.212.

12. Risk scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (~60%): Hold 0.223–0.225, reclaim VWAP 0.226–0.227, break 0.232, and extend to 0.236–0.240.
• Bear sweep then up (~25%): Brief stop‑run to 0.221–0.223 (testing 50% of the intraday range), quick recovery and then same path as base case.
• Bear continuation (~15%): Failure at/under VWAP; loss of 0.221–0.222 leads to 0.218 retest. A daily close below 0.218 would open 0.212.

13. Trade plan synthesis

• Edge drivers:
  • Confluence of 38.2% Fib + 20‑SMA under price.
  • Inside day after expansion (volatility compression).
  • RSI neutral‑bullish; intraday bullish divergence.
  • Nearby LVN gap above (0.232–0.236) offers fast reversion potential.
• Tactics: Buy‑limit within demand 0.2235–0.2245 to improve R:R, targeting the LVN fill and first supply belt.
• Targeting: Conservative TP in front of 0.240 resistance (0.239–0.240) to increase fill probability within 24 hours.
• Invalidation (not executable here but essential): A daily close back below 0.218 (50% Fib and yesterday’s low) would negate the setup and argue for patience toward 0.212.

14. Probability‑weighted expectation

• Expected path is a modest upward drift with a likely test of 0.232–0.236; momentum/volume would dictate whether 0.240–0.241 prints within the window. Given weekend liquidity, wicks are common—hence the preference to work a dip‑buy limit rather than chase.

Conclusion

• Bias: Buy dips. The market defended a classic retracement level, sits above the 20‑day, and printed an inside day. The first upside magnet is the 0.232–0.236 pocket; a stretch objective is 0.239–0.241.

Actionable levels

• Open (limit buy): 0.2238 (just inside intraday demand, high fill probability and tight risk)
• Primary target: 0.2398 (front‑run 0.240/0.241 supply)
• Contextual stop (for risk planning; not part of execution here): Below 0.2180 (close risk), or tighter intraday below 0.2210 depending on risk tolerance.

Note: This is a technical view over ~24h. Exogenous events and weekend liquidity can cause slippage/vol spikes. Adjust sizing accordingly.