DOGE teeters below 0.23: breakdown retest favors a short into 0.215

Overview and bias

• Timeframe context: Daily trend turned down after the Sep 13 spike to ~0.3056. The last three sessions formed lower highs and lower lows. Today (Sep 25) price broke the 0.232–0.241 congestion and printed a fresh swing low near 0.2216 before closing around 0.2246. Intraday structure on the hourly is a clear stair-step lower.
• Immediate bias (next 24h): Moderately bearish with a bounce-risk into a breakdown retest first. Base case: a weak pop toward 0.228–0.230 gets sold, followed by continuation toward 0.221–0.219 and possible extension to ~0.215.

Multi-timeframe market structure

• Daily structure: Clear downtrend from the Sep 13 high (0.3056) with successive lower highs (0.2942 on Sep 14, 0.2836–0.2879 area mid Sep, 0.2788/0.2698 mid-to-late Sep) and lower lows. The prior support shelf 0.241–0.245 (late Aug/early Sep balance) failed on Sep 22 and again today’s session closed below that zone.
• 4H/Hourly structure (past ~24–36 hours): Lower-highs sequence: 0.2419 → 0.2395 → 0.2389 → 0.2356 → 0.2328 → 0.2311 → 0.2302 → 0.2272 → 0.2219 (low) → tepid bounce 0.2289 → end-of-hour 0.2246. The bounce volumes at 19:00–21:00 were lighter than the breakdown volumes (17:00–18:00), a classic weak retest dynamic.

Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily 8/21/50 EMA stack (approximate): Price is below the 8-EMA (~0.237), 21-EMA (~0.246–0.248), and 50-EMA (~0.232–0.235). Bearish alignment (8 < 21 downward slope; price < all three) supports short-the-bounce setups rather than dip buys.
• 20/50 SMA cross: The 20-SMA (roughly ~0.248) sits below price? No—price is below the 20-SMA and 50-SMA. The slope of both is rolling over, confirming momentum to the downside.
• 200D MA: Not available in the dataset window; trend inference relies on nearer-term MAs.

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

• Daily: Price is riding the lower band after a band expansion originating from the Sep 13 blow-off. With the 20-SMA around ~0.248 (mid-band), current trade ~0.225 leaves a large gap to the mean. In downtrends, such lower-band rides often produce shallow mean reversion bounces that fail near the 8–20 EMA zone. Expect any push toward 0.231–0.235 to attract sellers.

RSI/Momentum

• Daily RSI(14) (approximate): Drifting in the 35–40 region—bearish momentum but not deeply oversold, leaving room to extend lower before a strong reflex rally. No clear bullish divergence versus the Sep 21–22 swing lows; momentum confirms trend.
• Hourly RSI(14): Printed sub-30 on the breakdown and recovered to low/mid-30s on feeble bounce—mild positive divergence at best, consistent with a small retest bounce rather than a primary reversal.

MACD

• Daily MACD: Below zero with a negative histogram since the mid-September reversal. The histogram shows only slight deceleration—early evidence of a bounce attempt but not yet a signal of trend change.
• Hourly MACD: Curling up from very negative, supportive of a countertrend pop into prior intraday supply (0.228–0.231), a tactical spot to fade.

Ichimoku Cloud (trend and equilibrium)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; Tenkan < Kijun; projected cloud likely flipped bearish post-9/22. Chikou span below price. All four signals lean bearish. Interpretation: rallies into Kijun/Tenkan (~0.229–0.233 intraday) are shortable with defined risk.

VWAP and intraday microstructure

• Session VWAP (approx) slopes down; the heaviest volumes occurred on the breakdown hours (17:00–18:00 UTC) around 0.222–0.227, establishing a new value area lower and above-price overhang. Current price below session VWAP suggests sellers still control. Expect responsive sellers near VWAP/previous value area highs (~0.228–0.231).

Volume/Distribution

• Daily volumes expanded into the down move (Sep 22 and today), marking distribution days. Today’s intra-hour prints: breakdown hours had 4–5x the bounce hour volumes, indicating supply dominance. Lighter-volume bounces tend to fail in ongoing downtrends.

Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing (Aug 19 low 0.2090 → Sep 13 high 0.3056):
  • 38.2%: ~0.2687 (lost)
  • 61.8%: ~0.2459 (lost)
  • 78.6%: ~0.2297 (now broken/being retested from below) Interpretation: Failure under 78.6% often precedes a round-trip toward the origin of the move—i.e., a test of 0.209 in coming sessions. Within 24h, the 0.215–0.218 pocket is a realistic interim target.

Classical Pivots (based on Sep 24 H/L/C ≈ 0.25016/0.23209/0.24124)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.24116
• S1 ≈ 0.23217 (broken)
• S2 ≈ 0.22309 (tagged; intraday low pierced to 0.2216)
• S3 ≈ 0.20502 Interpretation: Trading below S2 into the close keeps S3 in play over a multi-day horizon; near-term oscillation between S2 (resistance on retest) and the mid-teens support (0.214–0.216) is probable.

Support/Resistance map (confluence)

• Resistance
  • 0.228–0.231: Breakdown retest zone (hourly supply, VWAP vicinity, Tenkan/Kijun confluence).
  • 0.232–0.235: Intraday failure cluster and lower MA band.
  • 0.241–0.245: Major broken shelf—now strong resistance.
• Support
  • 0.2215–0.222: Today’s low/mini shelf.
  • 0.215–0.216: Multi-touch level from late Aug/early Sep; next high-odds magnet if 0.221 fails.
  • 0.209–0.210: August capitulation lows/round-trip target of the Sep rally.

ATR/Expected move

• Daily ATR(14) (approx): 0.012–0.015. From 0.2246, a 1-ATR move implies 0.212–0.239 range over 24 hours. Our base target (0.215) sits within 1 ATR, feasible without extraordinary volatility.

Donchian/Channel context

• 20-day Donchian high 0.3056, low 0.2090. Current price trades in the lower quartile of the range after multiple failed attempts to reclaim the midline, consistent with trend continuation rather than reversal.

Heikin-Ashi read

• Recent daily candles show elongated lower bodies with minimal upper wicks—momentum to the downside. Today added another bearish bar, albeit with a small lower wick (minor loss of momentum consistent with a bounce-before-down scenario).

Elliott wave (tentative)

• The decline off 0.3056 appears as an impulsive leg (A) to ~0.261, a shallow countertrend (B) to ~0.283, and a continuing (C) leg lower underway. Within C, sub-waves suggest a brief wave iv bounce into 0.229–0.233, then wave v extension into 0.215–0.209.

Market profile/volume-by-price (conceptual)

• High-volume nodes (HVNs): 0.241–0.245 and 0.214–0.220. Low-volume node (LVN): ~0.227–0.229. Price just knifed through the LVN; retests often reject quickly, pushing price toward the next HVN below (0.214–0.220).

Pattern diagnostics

• Breakdown from a multi-week rectangle (0.232–0.245) with a throwback risk to the lower boundary and then continuation. No credible double-bottom formed yet (today’s 0.2216 is a new low relative to recent days); confirmation would require a higher low plus reclaim of 0.232+—absent for now.

Scenario probabilities (next 24h)

• Bearish continuation after retest: 55% probability. Path: bounce to 0.228–0.230, fade to 0.221–0.219, extension toward 0.215.
• Range and base-building: 25% probability. Path: 0.222–0.232 chop, close near 0.226–0.229 as volatility compresses.
• Sharp squeeze/reversal: 20% probability. Path: reclaim 0.232, squeeze to 0.236–0.241, then reassess. This would require a clear shift in order flow and volume profile not yet evident.

Risk management and trade plan

• Thesis: Primary trend and momentum are down; breakdown is fresh; bounce volumes are weak; confluences of resistance stack above current price. The optimal tactical play is to Sell a bounce into 0.228–0.230 (breakdown retest) with a stop above 0.2338–0.235 (above hourly supply and short-term MAs), targeting 0.215 near-term. R:R ~2.5–3.0 depending on entry.
• Entry: Limit Sell around 0.2290 (inside the 0.228–0.230 supply pocket). If price fails to bounce, consider a momentum add-on below 0.2215 with tighter risk.
• Stop (for risk control; not part of the requested outputs): 0.2339 (conservative) or 0.2355 (safer, above 0.235–0.236 supply). Trail lower once price breaks 0.221.
• Take-profit: Base TP at 0.2150 (first major support). Optional runner for 0.2090 if momentum accelerates.

Why not Buy here?

• The multi-timeframe structure is bearish; price sits below key MAs, below the 78.6% retracement, and under S2 pivot. Momentum/volume do not yet show capitulation plus strong reversal confirmation. A long would need 0.232–0.235 reclaimed with impulse and breadth.

Bottom line

• Sell the bounce. Expect a mean-reversion pop into the breakdown zone to fail and next leg lower to target 0.215 within 24 hours. Tail risk of a deeper flush to ~0.209 exists if 0.215 gives way on heavy volume.