DOGE: Liquidity Sweep Reclaim Sets Up Pivot-To-R1 Long Into 0.200–0.203

Executive view

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (range expansion to the upside favored) with resistance into 0.200–0.203 and a larger cap at 0.205–0.210.
• Rationale: Post-liquidity sweep recovery above intraday VWAP and the daily pivot, confluence with Fibonacci and classical pivots; improving short-term momentum while still below higher-timeframe MAs.

Multi-timeframe structure

• Higher timeframe (Daily):
  • Trend: Primary downtrend since early October (50D SMA above price; sequence of lower highs). Post-10/10 capitulation low at 0.1148 produced a reflexive bounce, then a range 0.185–0.209 emerged.
  • Market structure: Higher low vs. 10/17 (0.1762) and 10/11 (0.1790). Local high 10/27 at 0.2093 rejected near the 61.8% retracement of the 0.270→0.1148 swing (~0.2107), establishing a clear resistance shelf 0.205–0.210.
  • Current state: Price is basing near the 0.19–0.20 pivot zone; consolidation following 10/28 selloff suggests absorption rather than trend resumption.
• Intraday (Hourly from 10/28–10/29):
  • Range: 0.1906–0.1973 with repeated tests of 0.193–0.195 and a late-session push to ~0.1964–0.1965.
  • Liquidity dynamics: 10/29 18:00 UTC large-volume flush to 0.1893 was immediately reclaimed, closing back near 0.1933 and then grinding higher. That looks like a spring/liquidity sweep of the 0.19 shelf.
  • Current: Trading slightly above intraday VWAP estimates and the daily pivot (calculated from 10/28), indicating short-term buyer control.

Key levels (confluence)

• Support
  • 0.191–0.193: Repeated intraday defense; 50% retrace of 10/17→10/27 swing ≈ 0.1928.
  • 0.185: Daily cluster lows (10/15–10/18) and S2 from daily pivots (approx 0.1843–0.1850 zone).
  • 0.176–0.179: Post-crash base (structural support; only if downside accelerates).
• Resistance
  • 0.1967–0.1973: Intraday cap and 38.2% retrace of 10/17→10/27 swing (≈0.1967). A clean hourly close above ~0.1973 opens 0.199–0.202.
  • 0.2007: Daily R1 pivot from 10/28 OHLC (see Pivots below).
  • 0.202–0.203: Minor supply from 10/8–10/9 postures and intraday wicks.
  • 0.205–0.210: Major resistance band; includes 61.8% of 0.1148→0.270 swing at ~0.2107 and the 10/27 high 0.2093.

Classical pivot points (using 10/28 H/L/C = 0.202907/0.191220/0.193757)

• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.195961
• R1 = 2P − L ≈ 0.200702
• S1 = 2P − H ≈ 0.189015
• R2 = P + (H − L) ≈ 0.207648
• S2 = P − (H − L) ≈ 0.184274 Interpretation: Price reclaimed P (~0.196), bias to test R1 (0.2007). R2 (0.2076) aligns with the lower edge of the 0.205–0.210 supply zone.

Fibonacci analysis

• Major swing (10/06 high 0.2700 → 10/10 low 0.1148):
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.1741 (held as higher base after the crash)
  • 61.8% ≈ 0.2107 (tagged/rejected via 10/27 high 0.2093)
• Post-crash upswing (10/17 low 0.1762 → 10/27 high 0.2093):
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.1967 (current pivot)
  • 50% ≈ 0.1928 (yesterday’s low cluster ~0.191–0.193)
  • 61.8% ≈ 0.1898 (intraday sweep down to 0.1893 on 10/29) Interpretation: Textbook pullback to the 50–61.8% retracement zone, followed by a spring and reclaim to the 38.2%—bullish for a push toward the prior swing highs of the pullback (0.200–0.203) before reassessing.

Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA: ~0.197–0.199 (price is oscillating around it). Mean reversion magnet near 0.198.
• 50D SMA: Likely ~0.23–0.24 (well above), confirming the broader downtrend remains intact; rallies should be treated as countertrend within daily context.
• EMAs (approx): EMA9 ~0.196–0.197, EMA21 ~0.200. Price is near EMA9 and below EMA21; an intraday push through 0.197–0.200 flips short-term momentum constructive.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI (Daily): Mid-40s to low-50s, consistent with range-bound but recovering conditions after a capitulation event.
• RSI (Hourly): Rebounded from oversold on the 0.189 sweep; likely printing a mild bullish divergence vs. the prior ~0.1906–0.1910 lows.
• Stochastics (Hourly): Rising out of a trough—supports a continuation toward resistance before momentum resets.
• MACD (Daily): Still below zero line but histogram contracting vs. mid-October—momentum loss on the downside; a small bull cross is possible if price holds above ~0.196–0.198 for a session.

Volatility and bandwidth

• ATR(14D) estimate ≈ 0.011. Current intraday range fits inside ATR, suggesting scope for a 0.005–0.008 expansion from the mean without stretching volatility risk.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Price near the middle band; band width has compressed versus early October, hinting at a coiled state. A measured move to the upper band (~0.202–0.205) is feasible if momentum persists.

Volume, OBV-style read, and order flow

• 10/10 crash volume was climactic; subsequent sessions show diminishing volume on down legs and moderate volume on bounces.
• 10/29 18:00 UTC hour printed the session’s heaviest volume bar on a downside push that failed, closing well off the lows—classic absorption and potential demand emergence.
• Net effect: OBV proxy would show stabilization, not yet a definitive uptrend, but supportive of a near-term push into overhead supply.

Ichimoku (directional cues)

• Price likely below a thin, slightly downward-sloping cloud on daily; Kijun/Tenkan near 0.198–0.200. Reclaiming/holding above 0.198–0.200 typically invites mean reversion toward the flat Kijun; failure to hold 0.193–0.195 risks another cloud rejection leg.

Wyckoff lens

• Phase: Accumulation-like behavior inside 0.189–0.200 after a selling climax and AR. 10/29’s undercut to 0.1893 resembles a spring, with subsequent test and lift above P/VWAP—bullish for a move to test the upper range (0.200–0.203) and potentially sign of strength to 0.205–0.207 if momentum expands.

Pattern diagnostics

• No clean triangle; instead, a horizontal range between 0.191–0.197 with attempts to break higher.
• Micro “inverse H&S” flavor if 0.189–0.191 acts as the right shoulder; neckline ~0.1967–0.1973. A decisive hourly close above 0.1973 targets 0.200–0.203.

Quant-style edges and confluence checklist

• Above daily pivot P and intraday VWAP: Yes → mild long bias.
• Close to 20D SMA mean: Yes → mean reversion target aligns with 0.198–0.200.
• Fib confluence: 38.2% sits at 0.1967 and is being contested; above it begets 0.2007 (R1) and 0.202–0.203.
• Liquidity sweep and reclaim: Yes at ~0.189 → increases odds of upside follow-through in next 12–24h.
• Broader trend headwind: Yes (50D SMA above) → cap likely into 0.205–0.210 unless strong impulse appears.

Scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Gradual drift up; break and hold above 0.1973 → test 0.2007 (R1). If momentum persists, tags 0.202–0.203 where supply reappears. Close in the 0.199–0.203 band likely.
• Bearish alt (25%): Failure at 0.1967–0.1973; fade back to 0.194–0.195. If liquidity thins, quick probe of 0.1928 (50% fib) and S1 ~0.189, where buyers likely defend again.
• Squeeze up (15%): Strong impulse through 0.203 leads to 0.205–0.207 (R2) before mean reversion.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Direction: Buy the dip into the pivot with a momentum confirmation.
• Entry: Buy limit around 0.1955 (just below the daily pivot 0.19596 and beneath intraday micro-support), expecting minor pullback fill.
• Initial target: 0.2027 (between R1 and the lower edge of supply at 0.205; ahead of the 0.203 offer wall).
• Suggested risk (not an order in output): Stop below 0.1910 (under 61.8% fib and S1 sweep), yielding an R:R ≈ 1.3–1.5 depending on fill.
• Invalidation: Hourly close below 0.191–0.192 zone after entry would invalidate the spring thesis; would step aside.

Why Buy over Sell here

• Multiple confluences—reclaim of daily pivot/VWAP, fib spring at 61.8%, and improving intraday momentum—favor a push to test overhead levels before any larger trend sells into 0.205–0.210. Shorting into the pivot when absorption is evident is lower edge-quality; waiting to fade 0.202–0.205 would be higher quality for shorts if momentum stalls.

24-hour price path expectation

• Probable path: 0.195–0.196 pullback → 0.1973 breakout → 0.2007 touch → 0.202–0.203 tag with intraday wicks. If momentum is strong, brief overshoot toward 0.205; otherwise consolidation below 0.203 into the following session.