DOGE: Sell the Bounce — Pivot/VWAP Fade into S1

Executive summary

• Regime: Fresh downside expansion after a multi‑week distribution range. Today broke the 0.182–0.205 consolidation with a high‑volume shove to 0.163–0.168, shifting near‑term control to sellers.
• Bias next 24h: Bearish with intraday bounces. Base case is a rally failure into 0.171–0.173 followed by a slide toward 0.159–0.161. Range expectation ~0.156–0.173.
• Trade plan (tactical): Sell a bounce near 0.171–0.173 (pivot/38.2% retrace confluence). Target 0.158–0.160 (classic S1). Risk above 0.176–0.178 (61.8% retrace / supply shelf).

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily trend: Lower highs since 2025‑10‑26 (0.2057) and successive lower lows (0.1827 → 0.1676 today). Today’s candle is a wide‑range bearish expansion bar closing near the lows—classic continuation signal.
• Intraday (1h) sequence on 2025‑11‑03: Gradual slip 0.186→0.175 overnight, sharp liquidation 15:00 UTC to 0.1678 on heavy volume, weak bounce to 0.1712, then lower highs and a late session close 0.1676. Sellers defended each rally.
• Volume: Today’s aggregate volume materially above recent sessions (3.58B on final bar + heavy 15:00 UTC burst). Breakdown confirmed by participation—bearish confirmation.

2. Key levels (multi‑timeframe confluence)

• Resistance/supply: 0.1710–0.1730 (1h reaction high + daily pivot P ≈ 0.1727 + 38.2% retrace of today’s drop), 0.1752–0.1780 (50–61.8% retrace zone), 0.1865–0.1885 (yesterday’s high/failed breakout area), 0.200–0.206 (prior range ceiling/Kijun cluster).
• Support/demand: 0.164–0.168 (today’s closing cluster; includes 50% retrace of 0.1148→0.218 swing ≈ 0.1644), 0.1587 (Classic S1 from today’s pivots), 0.150 (S2), 0.114–0.116 (October capitulation low; tail risk if momentum accelerates).

3. Moving averages (trend and slope)

• Daily SMA(20) ≈ 0.192 (downward sloping). Price 0.1676 is well below—bearish.
• Daily SMA(50) ≈ 0.23–0.24 and SMA(200) higher still—clear long‑term downtrend alignment (price < 20 < 50 < 200).
• EMAs: 9/12/26 EMAs are declining; 9EMA < 12EMA < 26EMA, with widening gaps—bearish momentum regime.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) Daily ≈ 30–34: entering oversold, but in downtrends RSI can “stick” sub‑40; favors sell‑the‑rip tactics rather than knife‑catching.
• RSI(14) 1h ≈ low‑40s after a brief oversold rebound: room for one more push up to test 0.171–0.173 before momentum rolls over.
• Stochastic (14,3,3) 1h: crossed up from oversold but below 50—signals weak bounce rather than trend change.
• MACD Daily: Below zero with a negative histogram expanding—bearish continuation. 1h MACD attempting a shallow bull cross beneath zero—typical of dead‑cat bounces in a downtrend.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) Daily ≈ 0.011–0.013. Implies a typical 24h swing of ±0.011 around the mean; from 0.1676 this frames 0.156–0.179 as a plausible envelope.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 0.192; lower band recently around 0.178 pre‑break, now expanding down. Today’s close is outside/near the expanding lower band—down‑band walk conditions; expect rallies to mid‑band on 1h to be sold.

6. Volume analytics

• OBV Daily: Rolling over since late October; today’s distribution pushes OBV below recent basing levels—confirms supply dominance.
• Volume‑weighted context (intraday VWAP): Session VWAP sat ~0.171–0.172 after the dump; price held below VWAP most of the day. Expect VWAP retests to reject unless new buyers step in—bearish edge to fade into VWAP.

7. Ichimoku (trend breadth)

• 1h: Price below a downward Kumo; Tenkan < Kijun, both pointing down. Any rally toward Kijun (~0.171–0.172) is likely to meet supply.
• Daily: Price well below cloud; Senkou Span A < Span B; Tenkan and Kijun above price—bearish layout with no immediate cloud support.

8. Parabolic SAR and ADX

• Parabolic SAR (Daily): Dots above price since mid‑Oct; today’s expansion keeps SAR safely overhead—bearish.
• ADX(14) Daily: Rising toward/above ~25 with -DI > +DI—strengthening bearish trend; favors continuation moves over reversals.

9. Fibonacci structure

• Today’s intraday swing 0.1866 → 0.1638: 38.2% = 0.1725, 50% = 0.1752, 61.8% = 0.1779. Price topped near 0.1711 (shy of 38.2%), indicating weak dip‑buying.
• Larger swing (Oct low 0.1148 → Oct/Nov recovery ~0.214): 38.2% ≈ 0.1758, 50% ≈ 0.1644, 61.8% ≈ 0.1530. Current price straddles the 50% retrace; losing 0.164 opens a path to 0.153–0.158.

10. Classical pivots (derived from today’s H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.1727, R1 ≈ 0.1815, S1 ≈ 0.1587, R2 ≈ 0.1954, S2 ≈ 0.1499. Price is below P and failed on approach—bearish. S1 at 0.1587 aligns with Fibonacci/ATR projections—probable magnet on fresh sell pressure.

11. Pattern read and candles

• Daily candle: Wide‑range bearish body closing near the lows—no bottoming wick. Suggests unfinished business lower.
• 1h candles: Post‑dump doji/weak bullish candles with small bodies, lower highs—distributive micro‑structure. No bullish engulfing or hammer confirmation noted.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Weak bounce fails at 0.171–0.173 (VWAP/Pivot/38.2% confluence), then grind down to 0.159–0.161, with intraday spikes potentially to 0.165–0.166 before the close.
• Bear extension (20%): Momentum accelerates through 0.1587 S1, probing 0.153–0.155 (Fib 61.8%/S2 proximity) before responsive buying appears.
• Counter‑trend squeeze (25%): Short‑covering lifts price above 0.173 toward 0.176–0.178 (50–61.8% retrace). Expect supply to re‑emerge there; sustained acceptance above 0.178 would be required to negate the near‑term bear case and re‑target 0.186–0.188.

13. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Edge: Multiple systems align bearishly—MA/EMA slope, MACD below zero, price sub‑VWAP, below pivot P, ADX rising, OBV distribution, Ichimoku below cloud. While daily RSI is near oversold, the structure favors selling rips into resistance rather than buying dips.
• Entry: Use a limit‑sell in the 0.171–0.173 zone. This is where confluence is strongest (Pivot P ≈ 0.1727 + Fib 38.2% ≈ 0.1725 + intraday VWAP resistance).
• Target: 0.158–0.160 region (Pivot S1 ≈ 0.1587; matches ATR‑projected range and larger swing 50–61.8% window).
• Risk/invalidations: A sustained push/close above 0.176–0.178 (61.8% retrace cluster) weakens the short; above 0.1815 (R1) would signal a squeeze toward 0.186–0.188 and negate this 24h plan.
• Indicative R:R: Entry 0.1718, stop 0.1766 (above 61.8%/supply shelf), target 0.1588 → Reward 0.0130 vs Risk 0.0048 ≈ 2.7:1.

14. Bottom line

• Expect a sell‑the‑bounce session with a likely range 0.156–0.173 and a bearish drift toward 0.159–0.161 by the 24h mark. Optimal execution is to fade a push into 0.171–0.173 rather than chase at lows.