DOGE: Short the Retest — Sell 0.1298 Into 0.1212 Target as Downtrend Resumes

Executive summary

• Context: DOGE is in a persistent, multi-month downtrend. Today set fresh multi-week lows and closed beneath prior support, indicating trend continuation. Short-term is oversold, so a reflexive bounce into newly formed supply is likely before a further leg lower.
• Next 24h base case: Mean-reversion bounce toward 0.129–0.131 (retest of broken support/VWAP/50%–61.8% intraday retrace), then continuation to 0.122–0.123, with tail risk to ~0.120.
• Trade plan: Sell the bounce (limit short) near 0.1298; target 0.1212. Invalidation if hourly closes sustain above ~0.1345.

1. Market structure and trend

• Higher time frame (daily): From 2025-09-19 close 0.265 to current 0.1259 is ~-52%. The structure since the 2025-10-10 capitulation (low ~0.1148, close 0.1932) has been a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Rallies into 0.14–0.15 have consistently sold off, culminating in a fresh breakdown in mid-Dec.
• Recent daily pivots: • 2025-12-03 local high/close 0.1519; subsequent roll-over. • 2025-12-09 bounce high 0.1480 failed below prior lower-high zone. • 2025-12-15 new swing low 0.1297. • 2025-12-16 weak bounce to 0.1317. • 2025-12-17 intraday squeeze to 0.1357 then sharp rejection and trend day down to 0.1259 (new low under 12/15).
• Support/resistance map: • Immediate resistance: 0.1290–0.1310 (broken support, intraday retrace cluster), then 0.1340–0.1360 (today’s failed breakout high 0.1342/0.1357 spike), then 0.139–0.142 (daily supply pivot). • Immediate support: 0.1250–0.1260 (current shelf), then 0.121–0.123 (Fibonacci extensions / ATR projection), then 0.1148 (October capitulation low; major).
• Pattern: Dec 1–10 built a descending range/flag; Dec 12–16 was a weak retest; Dec 17 broke down, confirming bear-flag continuation with a breakdown retest setup likely in the next session.

2. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 25 (computed from the last 14 daily closes). This is oversold, but with trend dominance RSI can remain sub-30 while price “walks the band.” Expect reflexive bounces yet favor lower highs.
• Stochastic (inferred) is sub-20, consistent with exhaustion but not a buy signal by itself in a trend.
• MACD (daily) is negative with the histogram expanding after today’s breakdown, indicating momentum re-acceleration to the downside.
• ADX (inferred) > 25 and rising after the fresh low, consistent with trend strength resuming.

3. Moving averages

• Price trades below the 20/50/100/200-day MAs (20D ~0.144±, 50D ~0.17± by inference). All are overhead and declining, acting as dynamic resistance. Short-term MAs are aligned bearishly (fast < slow), confirming trend following signals to stay short on rallies.

4. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~20D SMA near 0.144; lower band estimated ~0.131. Today’s close near 0.1259 is below the lower band, indicating an overshoot. Typical sequence: a small mean-reversion toward the lower band or mid-band test followed by continued band-walk if the trend persists. Expect a bounce toward 0.129–0.131 (lower band vicinity) before another leg lower.
• ATR(14) (daily) estimated ~0.006–0.008. From 0.126, a 1–1.5x ATR move projects 0.118–0.134 for the next session’s envelope. Our base-case target (0.121–0.123) sits inside that band on the downside.

5. Ichimoku framework (daily)

• Price is below the Kumo; Senkou Span A < Span B (bearish cloud), Tenkan < Kijun, and Chikou span below price/cloud. Kijun (baseline) likely sits far above near 0.139–0.141, consistent with overhead supply. Classic bearish alignment favors shorting rallies toward Tenkan/Kijun rather than bottom-fishing.

6. Fibonacci levels

• Intraday swing (2025-12-17 14:00 high 0.13421 → 18:00 low 0.12560): • 38.2%: 0.12889, 50%: 0.12991, 61.8%: 0.13092. This tightly aligns with the 0.129–0.131 breakdown-retest zone and today’s session VWAP.
• Extension of the same swing: • 1.272: ~0.1243; 1.618: ~0.1228. With price closing ~0.1259 (near 1.272), the 1.618 extension around 0.1228 is a logical next downside magnet if the retest fails.
• Higher-timeframe swing (Dec 9 high 0.1480 → Dec 15 low 0.1297): • 23.6–38.2% retraces at ~0.134–0.1367 capped last bounce attempt, strengthening the 0.134–0.136 supply zone.

7. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Daily volumes have been heavier on selloffs than on bounces since late Nov, a bearish distributional signature.
• Today’s intraday: heavy sell impulse at 15:00 UTC hour (large volume) from ~0.134 to ~0.130, then continued distribution lower into the close. Day VWAP estimates ~0.1299–0.1303. Price closed well below VWAP, increasing the odds of a next-session VWAP reversion toward ~0.13 before sellers reassert.
• Volume profile (recent weeks) shows a prominent node in 0.140–0.150; the 0.129–0.134 pocket is a relatively thin area, which can produce fast moves and failed retests.

8. Price action and microstructure (hourly)

• Sequence today: morning grind 0.13→spike 0.1357, then a decisive momentum reversal and trend-day lower, setting a fresh low (0.1252) and closing weak.
• Into the close: small stabilization prints around 0.1258 with limited buy response—typical of a market needing a bounce to unlock overhead liquidity before the next leg down.
• Liquidity map: obvious resting liquidity above 0.129–0.131 (prior support/VWAP/50–62% retrace), and below 0.125/0.123. Expect a sweep toward 0.13 to fill, then a push into sub-0.123 if sellers remain active.

9. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• The 12/16 to 12/17 push up to ~0.1357 looks like a counter-trend wave (iv) that failed; 12/17’s selloff likely initiated a wave (v) extension. A shallow wave (iv) retest to 0.129–0.131 would complete before a terminal wave (v) toward 0.122–0.120, aligning with Fibonacci extensions.

10. Confluence summary

• Bearish continuation factors: lower lows, rejection at 0.134–0.136 supply, price under all key MAs and lower BB, MACD negative and expanding, ADX rising, weak close at new low.
• Mean-reversion factors: Daily RSI ~25 and close below lower BB point to a reflexive bounce probability near-term; VWAP confluence at 0.129–0.130 supports a tactical sell-the-bounce plan rather than chasing lows.

11. Scenarios for next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Gap/creep up toward 0.129–0.131, stall under 0.131, roll down to 0.122–0.123; intraday low risk to ~0.121 on momentum.
• Sideways (25%): 0.126–0.131 choppy balance, closes near 0.127–0.129 as market digests.
• Squeeze (15%): Strong bid drives through 0.131 to 0.134–0.136 supply; unless acceptance >0.136 with volume, rallies likely fade. Invalidation for shorts if hourly closes build above 0.1345–0.1350 and VWAP flips supportive intraday.

12. Trade plan (tactical short)

• Rationale: Short into overhead confluence at 0.129–0.131 (breakdown retest, VWAP, 50–61.8% intraday retracement, former support → resistance). This optimizes reward-to-risk versus shorting at current lows.
• Entry (limit sell): 0.1298.
• Take profit (TP): 0.1212 (captures move toward 1.618 extension ~0.1228 with buffer; inside 1–1.5x ATR).
• Invalidation (stop; for risk planning): 0.1346 (above hourly structure and the 0.134–0.136 supply; a sustained reclaim would signal a squeeze toward 0.139–0.142).
• Notional R:R: Risk ~0.0048 vs reward ~0.0086 ≈ 1:1.8; improves to >2:1 if momentum extends to ~0.120.

13. Key levels to watch

• Resistance: 0.1290–0.1310 (sell zone), 0.1340–0.1360 (squeeze zone/invalidates tactical short if reclaimed), 0.139–0.142 (major daily supply).
• Support: 0.1250–0.1260 (current shelf), 0.1228 (1.618 ext), 0.1210–0.1215 (ATR support), 0.1200 (psych), 0.1148 (major).

14. Risk notes

• Oversold conditions can produce sharper bounces than expected; prefer waiting for price to come to the entry. Avoid chasing breakdowns into thin liquidity.
• If BTC/majors rally strongly, DOGE can overshoot 0.131→0.134 quickly; use the invalidation.

Bottom line

• Trend is down; momentum has re-accelerated after a failed bounce. Use oversold mean-reversion into 0.129–0.131 to establish short exposure. Target 0.121 area over the next 24 hours; reassess if price accepts above ~0.1345.