DOGE Breaks January Support: Sell-the-Retest Setup Targets a Drop Toward 0.137

Market context (multi-timeframe)

Instrument: DOGE (USD)
Current price: 0.13959
Data coverage: Daily candles (2025-10-18 → 2026-01-15) + intraday hourly (last ~24h)

1) Higher-timeframe trend (Daily)

• Primary trend (Oct → Dec): bearish. Price fell from ~0.19–0.20 in late Oct to a capitulation low zone ~0.117–0.122 around Dec 31–Jan 1.
• Relief rally (Jan 1 → Jan 5): sharp rebound to ~0.151–0.156 (Jan 4–6 highs), typical of a bear-market/mean-reversion bounce.
• Current regime (Jan 6 → now): consolidation-to-distribution. After the bounce, DOGE failed to extend, rolled over, and is now back below the mid-range of the recent rebound.

Key takeaway: the dominant daily structure is still lower highs / heavy supply above ~0.147–0.151, with price now slipping back toward the lower portion of the January range.

---

2) Most recent daily candle behavior

Latest daily print (2026-01-15):

• Open: 0.14722
• Low: 0.13903
• Close/current: 0.13959
• Large red body / decisive breakdown from the prior day’s close (0.14722).

This is a classic range-break + momentum shift day: sellers controlled the session and price closed near the lows, which statistically increases the odds of follow-through or at least a retest of breakdown levels.

---

3) Support/Resistance mapping (price-action & volume logic)

Immediate resistances (supply):

• 0.1429–0.1447: intraday reaction zone (multiple hourly opens/closes earlier in the day). Expect first meaningful selling on any bounce.
• 0.1465–0.1475: prior support turned resistance (breakdown origin). Strong “sell-the-retest” area.
• 0.1500–0.1518: January swing supply / failed extension zone.

Immediate supports (demand):

• 0.1390–0.1402: current breakdown base (today’s low 0.13903). First line of defense.
• 0.1365–0.1377: prior daily closes (Jan 11–12 area) — next support if 0.139 fails.
• 0.1320–0.1342: late-Dec/early-Jan consolidation shelf.

Implication: price is sitting on thin immediate support; below 0.139, the next magnets are 0.137 → 0.134.

---

4) Moving-average regime (trend filter inference)

Even without explicitly computing MAs, the sequence provides strong inference:

• Price is below recent rebound highs and has rotated down into the mid/lower band of the January range.
• The failure to hold ~0.146–0.147 suggests short-term averages (e.g., 9/20) have likely rolled over, while longer averages (50+) are still above price from the prior downtrend.

MA conclusion: trend filter bias = bearish-to-neutral, favoring shorts on rallies rather than buying breakdowns.

---

5) Momentum & oscillator read (RSI/MACD-style inference)

Using price structure:

• The drop from ~0.147 to ~0.139 in one session is a momentum impulse.
• Prior to this drop, price was not making strong higher highs; momentum was waning.

Interpretation: RSI-like behavior likely moved from neutral to bearish (sub-50); MACD-like structure likely shows negative crossover / widening after today’s selloff.

Momentum conclusion: higher probability of continuation down or weak bounce (dead-cat bounce) rather than immediate V-reversal.

---

6) Volatility / range analysis (ATR-style)

Recent daily ranges (high-low) have been sizable during turns (e.g., Jan 2 and Jan 15). Today’s range is ~0.0082 (~5.9% of price), which is large for DOGE.

Volatility conclusion: elevated volatility favors mean-reversion bounces, but within a bearish regime these bounces are often sellable (retest mechanics).

---

7) Intraday microstructure (Hourly last ~24h)

• Early hours: clustered trading around 0.143–0.145, indicating acceptance there.
• Midday onward: breakdown through 0.142 → 0.141 → 0.140, then compressed trading near 0.139–0.140.
• Late prints: small rebound attempts fail to reclaim 0.1405–0.141.

Intraday conclusion: market is accepting lower prices; bounces are shallow; sellers are defending overhead levels.

---

24-hour outlook (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability): Bearish continuation / retest-lower

• Expect a retest of 0.1390; if it breaks, a move toward 0.1377 then 0.1365 becomes likely.

Alternative (lower probability): Relief bounce then stall

• If 0.139 holds, a bounce toward 0.1429–0.1447 may occur, but given structure it is more likely to be sold unless price reclaims and holds above ~0.145.

Directional bias for next 24h: Down to sideways, with rallies likely capped beneath 0.144–0.147.

---

Trade plan decision

Given:

• Breakdown day with close near lows
• Strong overhead resistance at 0.146–0.147 (prior support)
• Higher likelihood of follow-through to 0.137–0.136

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Optimal open (entry) logic

Avoid shorting into immediate support (0.139) because bounce risk is high. Prefer shorting a retest of broken intraday structure.

• Optimal open price: 0.14460 (inside the 0.1429–0.1447 reaction band, closer to resistance)

Target (take profit)

• Close price (TP): 0.13680 (near the next support cluster 0.1365–0.1377; leaves room before demand)

(If price never bounces to 0.1446 and instead breaks 0.139 decisively, the move can run without providing the preferred entry; the higher-quality setup remains “sell the retest.”)

---

Note: This is technical-analysis-based, not financial advice; crypto can gap on news/liquidity. Consider sizing and a protective stop above ~0.1475 if you implement the short thesis.