DOGE at a Breakdown Retest: Favor Selling the 0.140 Supply Zone Into 0.132 Support

Market structure (top-down)

Current price: 0.1377755

1) Daily trend & regime

• Primary trend (since Oct peak ~0.205–0.209): bearish. Price has been making lower highs/lower lows into mid-Dec, then a reflex rally early Jan.
• Recent swing:
  • Low area: 0.1173 (Dec 31)
  • Rally peak: 0.1539 (Jan 4)
  • Pullback: 0.1390–0.1354 (Jan 15–16)
• Net: market is in a bear-market bounce that is now fading, returning to the mid-lows of the early-January rally leg.

2) Moving averages (directional bias)

Using the daily closes provided:

• Short-term MAs (5–10D) are rolling over. Last ~6 daily closes: 0.1481 → 0.1472 → 0.1400 → 0.1378 (down sequence). This typically puts price below/near the fast MA, biasing to sell rallies.
• Medium-term MA (20D) likely overhead given the broader downtrend from Nov–Dec. This implies dynamic resistance above current price (roughly in the 0.140–0.146 zone).

3) Support/Resistance mapping (price action)

Key resistance (supply):

• 0.1398–0.1403: prior daily close (Jan 15 close 0.139995) and intraday congestion around 0.140.
• 0.1426–0.1435: prior pivot zone (Jan 8 close 0.14199; Dec 10 close 0.1435). If price reclaims and holds above this, bearish thesis weakens.
• 0.1472–0.1481: last breakdown area (Jan 14 close 0.1472; Jan 13 close 0.1481).

Key support (demand):

• 0.1353–0.1360: intraday low on Jan 16 (~0.13538) and subsequent bounce.
• 0.1310–0.1325: late-Dec base/mean area (multiple closes around 0.131–0.132).
• 0.1267–0.1285: late-Dec breakdown region.

Interpretation: price is below a nearby resistance shelf (0.1398–0.1403) and is currently holding only a thin intraday support (0.1353–0.1360).

4) Candlestick/auction insight

• Daily: Jan 15 was a notable down day (0.1472 → 0.1400) suggesting a distribution-to-breakdown. Jan 16 continued weakness but with a bounce from 0.1354 into 0.1378: dead-cat bounce / short covering characteristics unless it reclaims 0.140+.
• Hourly: sequence from ~0.140 down to 0.1379 (11:00 hour with large volume), then a liquidation wick to 0.1354 and a grind back to 0.1378. This is classic: impulse down → corrective bounce. Corrective bounces often retrace toward the breakdown level (0.1395–0.1403) and fail.

5) Momentum (RSI/MACD-style inference)

No RSI values given, but we can infer:

• The sharp sell from ~0.148 to ~0.137 in ~2 days plus the intraday flush indicates momentum negative, likely RSI below midline (50).
• The bounce is modest and has not reclaimed key levels, suggesting bearish momentum persists.

6) Volatility / ATR-style inference

• Daily ranges recently: Jan 15 range ~0.1472 high to ~0.1390 low (~5–6%); Jan 16 range ~0.1403 to ~0.1354 (~3.5%).
• This implies elevated short-term ATR, making mean-reversion bounces plausible, but trend continuation risk is high once supports break.

7) Volume / participation

• Daily volumes remain large (often 1.3B–1.7B). Recent down days did not show a dramatic volume collapse, which suggests selling pressure is still well-participated.
• Hourly: a spike at 11:00 (285M) coincided with the break toward 0.137–0.138: sell impulse with real size.

8) Pattern/levels strategy (break-retest)

• The market broke down from ~0.147–0.148 and is now below the retest zone.
• A common high-probability setup is to sell the retest of the broken support (now resistance) near 0.1398–0.1403, with invalidation above the next resistance band.

24-hour expectation (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability):

• Price attempts a mean-reversion bounce toward 0.1395–0.1403, fails to hold above, then drifts back toward 0.1360 and potentially tests 0.1353 again.

Bear extension scenario:

• A clean break and acceptance below 0.1353 opens a quick move toward 0.1325–0.1310 (next major daily demand).

Bull invalidation scenario:

• Sustained trade above 0.1426–0.1435 would imply reclaim of a prior pivot and increases odds of retesting 0.1472–0.1481; until then, rallies are sellable.

Trade plan derived from the data

Given (1) dominant downtrend from Oct/Nov, (2) recent breakdown from 0.147 area, (3) failure to reclaim 0.140 handle so far, the higher expectancy over the next 24h is down/sideways with a sell-the-rally edge.

Therefore: Sell (Short Position).

Optimal open (entry)

• Best risk/reward is not at market but on a bounce into resistance:
• Open (short) at: 0.1402 (retest of 0.1398–0.1403 supply zone).

Take-profit (close)

• First meaningful daily support is 0.1353–0.1360; below that, next is 0.1325–0.1310.
• For a 24h horizon, target the nearer high-probability support:
• Close (take profit) at: 0.1326 (front-run the 0.1324–0.1310 base zone).

This aims to capture a continuation leg if 0.1353 breaks, while still being realistic within 24h volatility.