Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for EigenLayer (EIGEN)

1. Trend Analysis & Context

Examining the price history from late March to current June 28, EIGEN has undergone significant volatility and large swings. The asset surged aggressively in early May (climbing from ~$0.80s to near $1.70) and then entered a pronounced correction and volatility phase over subsequent weeks. As of the latest data (June 28), the price is $1.0918.

• Long-term context: The recent price is much closer to local lows than previous highs, indicating that the asset is in a corrective or bear phase after an earlier explosive rally.
• Short-term context: Price action since late June shows stabilization and possible formation of a short-term base, with a modest rebound from sub-$1.05 to current $1.09 - but lacking strong volume confirmation.

2. Moving Average Analysis

• EMA (Exponential Moving Average):
  • Approximating 20/50/100 period EMAs, considering the 30+ period closing prices (which have generally declined or been flat): the shorter EMA (20) would be close to the current price ($1.09), and the longer ones (50/100) likely above, hinting current price is stuck below major resistance.
  • Implication: EIGEN is possibly trapped below dynamic resistance, reinforcing short-term bearishness.

3. Volume Profile

• Recent Volume: The highest volumes occurred during selloffs and subsequent mild recoveries. Volumes have decayed in the last few days, with brief bursts on select hourly moves (e.g., 07:00-08:00 and 19:00-21:00 UTC June 28), without follow-through.
• Conclusion: Lack of strong accumulation or breakout volume recently, suggesting no significant buying interest stepping in. Sellers have dominated earlier, and the bounce is on lower conviction.

4. Support & Resistance (SR Levels)

• Short-Term Support: $1.03–$1.06 (recent lows, minor bounce region)
• Short-Term Resistance: $1.12–$1.16 (recent multi-day ceiling)
• Major Resistance: $1.18–$1.22 (local June highs before most recent drop)
• Key Breakdown Level: $1.00 (psychological, round-number support — if breached, likely further downside)

5. Candlestick / Price Action Pattern

• Price action since June 27–28: Short candles with small bodies and upper wicks near $1.09, demonstrating indecision and failed upward momentum.
• Recent hours: No higher highs; every slight push is met by sellers. Last day's candles are doji/small-bodied, often preceding renewed trend continuation (likely down, given context).

6. Momentum & Oscillators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Approximating visually — after a substantial selloff, there was short-term oversold, leading to a small relief rally. However, EIGEN is likely neutral to slightly weak; RSI under 50-45 on the hourly/daily.
• MACD: With the price consolidating after a strong leg down and weak bounce, the MACD fast line may be turning back down against the slow line, signaling persisting bearish momentum.
• Stochastics: Likely ticking up from extreme oversold but potentially curling back down as the bounce fades.

7. Fibonacci Retracements

• Key levels:
  • The retracement from swing high ~$1.68 (June 10–11) to the current low ($1.03+) aligns the $1.12–$1.16 as a 23.6%/38.2% retracement—an area where sellers often reload in bear trends.
• Recent bounce failed at this zone, confirming its strength.

8. Trendlines & Structure

• Downward channel: Connecting recent local swing highs ($1.32, $1.16, $1.12) and lows ($1.05), structure points to a descending channel, with lower highs and lower lows persisting.

9. Market Sentiment & Microstructure

• Order Book Action (inferred): With multiple failed attempts to push above $1.10, visible resistance exists; sellers are overpowering buyers at each rally attempt.
• No sign of aggressive absorption by large buyers.

10. Volatility Analysis

• ATR (Average True Range): ATR has likely spiked during the major selloff but is tapering as consolidation sets in — potentially a setup for another breakdown as the range tightens.

11. Pattern Analysis

• Bear Flag/Bearish Pennant: The price action since June 24–28 fits a classic bear flag — a rapid down move (flagpole) followed by a choppy, weak recovery (flag), often setting up for a further drop.

12. Statistical Edge – Mean Reversion and Momentum

• Given the strong mean-reverting bounce has already transpired, and we're below mean price for the last 100 periods, the edge now is for trend continuation lower — typical in post-bounce failure zones.

13. Risk/Reward and Trade Planning

• Short Position Rationale: Downtrend remains intact; bounce failed at resistance; no accumulation signal.
• Optimal Entry: Ideally, "Sell the bounce" at $1.10–$1.11, but a breakdown trade is valid below $1.09.
• Target: Next high-probability support zones are $1.05, then $1.03, and if momentum follows, even a test of $1.00 (psychological support). Short-term target is $1.04–$1.05.
• Stop for Short: Above $1.13 (recent resistance), providing a logical structure-based risk.

14. Alternate Scenario – Buying Opportunity?

• Invalidation: Only if price reclaims $1.16 with volume does the chart turn bullish again. Currently, probability is low for near-term.

---

CONCLUSION:

• The current setup is a textbook bear flag after a failed relief bounce, within a persistent downtrend, with volume and momentum waning after each rally attempt. Significant overhead resistance and lack of aggressive buying pressure make further downside the most likely scenario in the next 24h.
• SELL (Short position) is favored, ideally on a minor uptick ($1.10+) or upon break of $1.09. Target $1.04. Tight stop above $1.13.

---

Summary Table:

Indicator/Tool	Signal	Comment
Trend	Bearish	Lower highs/lows persist
Volume	Weak	No big buyers; sellers dominate
Support/Resistance	S: $1.05, R: $1.12	Breakout-failure at resistance
RSI/MACD	Weak/Bearish	Momentum fading, possible down continuation
Pattern	Bear Flag	Favors further downside
ATR	Lowering	Pre-breakdown consolidation

---

Trade Setup:

• Action: SELL (Short position)
• Open Price: $1.10 (ideal), $1.0918 (current, still valid)
• Target: $1.04 (support zone)
• Stop Loss: $1.13 (recent swing high)

---

Final Decision: Strongly favor SELL (Short). Market likely to retest $1.04–$1.05 base in the next 24 hours. If momentum picks up, could break below $1.00 psychological as well.