EIGEN coils under 1.45: coiled spring setup favors a dip-buy and breakout toward 1.50

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bullish within a 1.35–1.45 range, with a breakout risk skew to the upside; most-probable path is a buy-the-dip toward 1.38–1.39 and a push into 1.45–1.50 if 1.453 breaks.
• Key levels: Support 1.35/1.32/1.30; Resistance 1.45, then 1.50–1.53. Pivot zone/AVWAP cluster around 1.39–1.41 is the battleground.
• Trade idea: Buy-the-dip limit near 1.389 targeting a retest of 1.49–1.50 within 24h. Invalidation on sustained break below 1.35.

1. Multi-timeframe price structure

• Higher timeframe (daily): From late-June base ~1.00, impulsive advance to 1.669 (2025-08-13) followed by a controlled pullback/consolidation. Current price 1.396 sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the 1.00 → 1.669 leg (38.2% ≈ 1.416, 50% ≈ 1.337), indicating a healthy digestion rather than trend reversal. The last four daily sessions show narrowing ranges and a leveling of momentum—typical of a bull flag/base-building phase.
• Intermediate (last 2 weeks): After the spike to 1.669, closes cooled to 1.409/1.347/1.354, now 1.396. Price is holding above the 50% retrace and repeatedly defending 1.35–1.36, suggesting buyers are absorbing supply in that zone. Rebounds continue to stall just under 1.45, defining a tight 1.35–1.45 box with rising accumulation signatures.
• Intraday (hourly 08/16–08/17): Sequence of higher intraday lows from 1.315 → 1.350 with repeated tests of 1.43–1.45. Today’s high 1.453 was sold, but pullback lows held above 1.39–1.40 (AVWAP/Pivot neighborhood), keeping the short-term up-channel intact.

2. Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~1.29. Price (1.396) trades above the 20SMA, signaling short-term bullish bias after reclaiming the mean.
• 50-day SMA (rough): Slightly under/around 1.30–1.32 given June-July weakness; price > 50SMA supports medium-term uptrend continuity.
• Hourly MAs: 200H near 1.36–1.37; 50H near ~1.40. Price oscillating around the 50H and above the 200H—constructive, with potential for a 50H>200H reassertion if 1.41–1.43 holds.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (approx): Mid-50s after cooling from an overbought spike on 08/13. Neutral-to-bullish; plenty of room for another leg up without immediate overbought risk.
• Hourly RSI: Mid-40s to low-50s with bullish divergences developing vs. the 1.350–1.390 retests; no bearish extremes. Suggests dip buying around 1.38–1.40 remains favored.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Momentum peaked on 08/13; histogram has contracted. Cross risk is moderating while price holds above the 20SMA, a typical setup for a reattempt upward if resistance gives way.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~0.16. Implies a 24h expected move of ±0.16 around spot; that maps to a band roughly 1.24–1.56 from the current mean if volatility expands, but realistic near-term path remains inside 1.35–1.50 unless a catalyst arrives.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) (approx): Mid-band ~1.29; upper ~1.59; lower ~0.99. Price above the mid-band and compressing under the mid-upper half—a pre-breakout posture.
• Keltner (EMA20 ± 2*ATR): Center ~1.29; upper ~1.61. Price in the upper half but not extended, favoring a continuation attempt rather than mean-reversion lower.

5. Support/resistance, volume and VWAPs

• Horizontal support: 1.35 (recent defense), then 1.32/1.30 (prior demand, high-volume nodes), and 1.29 (late-July pivot/HL area).
• Overhead resistance: 1.43–1.45 (intraday supply wall, multiple rejections), then 1.50–1.53 (psychological + minor cluster), and 1.60–1.66 (prior spike zone).
• Volume profile: Heavy participation 1.38–1.45 recently; buyers showed up on dips, sellers at 1.45+. The balance is shifting toward buyers as pullback lows rise.
• Anchored VWAP (from 08/13 high est.): Tracks ~1.40 +/-; price toggling around AVWAP with buyers defending, a constructive sign. A steady hold above AVWAP typically precedes a resistance break.

6. Market structure and patterns

• Bull flag / ascending base: Post-spike consolidation within a narrowing band, with higher lows and flat tops near 1.45—a textbook pressure build under resistance. Flat resistance often breaks after several tests; we’ve seen multiple.
• Candles: 08/14 was a long red candle (post-blowoff cool-off). Subsequent candles are smaller real bodies with lower tails around 1.35–1.36 (demand). Today’s intraday upper wick shows supply at 1.45, but lack of follow-through selling back below 1.39 suggests absorption.
• Measured move potential: Prior impulse (approx 1.10 → 1.67 = 0.57). A confirmed break over 1.45 often produces a local measured swing into 1.50–1.55 initially (not necessarily the full 0.57 in 24h, but room exists toward 1.50–1.53).

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing low 1.005 → high 1.669:
  • 38.2% = ~1.416 (nearby lid now). A decisive recapture/hold above ≈1.42–1.43 would strongly validate upside.
  • 50% = ~1.337 (defended). This behavorally confirms buyers at halfback.
  • Intraday fibs from today’s 1.350–1.453 suggest 0.618 pullback ~1.386–1.390; that coincides with our optimal dip-buy area.

8. Pivots and confluence

• Prior-day classic pivots (08/16): P ~1.347; R2 ~1.405; R3 ~1.437. Today’s price extended above R3 intraday (1.453), signaling strength before reverting toward R2 (~1.40). Confluence of R2 and intraday AVWAP around 1.39–1.41 underpins the dip-buy thesis.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative approximation)

• Price reclaim above conversion/base is likely after the consolidation. Cloud ahead is thinning (implied by recent rally), leaving room for a fast move if 1.45 breaks. Lagging span likely near price, not bearish.

10. Elliott Wave (heuristic)

• Wave-3-like impulsive move into 1.669 followed by a wave-4-style sideways/down flag above 38.2–50% retrace. This typically precedes a final wave toward prior highs or at least into the 1.50–1.55 zone before a larger reset.

11. Risk management and scenarios

• Base case (60%): Range holds 1.38–1.45 early; breakout attempt later in the session. If 1.453 prints and holds, extension toward 1.49–1.50 likely within 24h given ATR and recent behavioral momentum.
• Bear case (25%): Failure at 1.43–1.45 and loss of 1.39 AVWAP leads to a sweep of 1.36–1.35. Only a firm daily close below 1.35 would jeopardize the bullish structure and open 1.32/1.30.
• Tail risk (15%): Volatility shock—swift test of 1.32 followed by sharp reversal, or a surprising upside spike if liquidity thins above 1.45.
• Stop placement (for the plan): Below 1.345 (beneath multi-touch support), keeping us out if structure fails.
• Reward-to-risk (indicative): Entry 1.389, TP 1.495 (+0.106), SL 1.345 (−0.044) → R:R ≈ 2.4:1. Fits a 24h tactical trade.

12. Probability-weighted path

• Most likely path: Early dip toward 1.386–1.392 gets bought → grind back to 1.42–1.44 → breakout probe of 1.45 → momentum carry to 1.49–1.50. If 1.39 breaks down with impulse, stand aside until 1.35 reaction.

Conclusion

• The confluence of reclaimed 20SMA, supportive AVWAP zone 1.39–1.41, repeated higher intraday lows, and a flat overhead at 1.45 favors a long setup on shallow pullbacks with a breakout target just shy of 1.50 within 24 hours.