EIGEN 24h Playbook — High-Probability Pullback Buy at Daily Pivot With Continuation Upside

Market snapshot

• Current price: 1.4477
• Context: Strong impulsive green day on 2025-08-22 (close 1.5065, +14.7% vs prior day) on elevated volume, followed by today’s orderly pullback toward the daily pivot and 38.2 percent retracement of the most recent upswing.
• Intraday 2025-08-23: Drifted from 1.50 area to a 1.42–1.43 base, bounce to 1.455, back to 1.446–1.448 — indicative of constructive consolidation above key supports.

Multi-timeframe trend check

• Structure since mid-June: Major low near 0.963 on 2025-06-22, higher swing high 1.669 on 2025-08-13, higher swing low cluster 1.25–1.35 into 2025-08-19–21, and an impulsive rally 2025-08-22. Short-term trend is up, medium-term is transitioning from range to up.
• Daily higher lows: 1.2540 (Aug 19) → 1.3137 (Aug 21 close) → 1.4477 current intraday higher low zone 1.42–1.43.
• Hourly sequence today: Series of equal-to-higher intraday lows around 1.423–1.433 followed by a rebound — accumulation signature.

Support and resistance map

• S1 1.420–1.435: 38.2 percent retrace of 1.2535 → 1.5236 leg, intraday basing cluster, and daily pivot proximity — primary buy zone.
• S2 1.388–1.395: 50 percent retrace, prior congestion, 14-SMA vicinity.
• R1 1.495–1.523: Yesterday’s close 1.5065, session spike high 1.5236, intraday supply shelf.
• R2 1.56–1.58: Approx upper Bollinger band and prior failure area; stretch target if momentum reignites.

Moving averages and trend filters

• 7-SMA ≈ 1.356 (bullish: price above).
• 14-SMA ≈ 1.392 (bullish: price above; slope turning up).
• 20-SMA ≈ 1.330 (bullish: price above; band mids rising).
• 50-SMA estimated ≈ 1.32–1.34 (price above; medium-term improving).
• EMA stack qualitative: EMA9 has likely crossed above EMA21 between Aug 20–22; price is currently pulling back toward EMA9–EMA10 on the daily — classic trend pullback context.

Implication: Pullbacks into 1.43–1.45 should attract dip-buyers while above 1.39.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 53 (neutral-bullish). Well away from overbought; room to extend higher after pullback.
• Hourly RSI: Cycled from oversold during 1.42 test, now mid-zone — supports base building rather than trend break.
• Stochastic (hourly) qualitative: Bullish cross from oversold near the 19:00 bounce — near-term upward skew.

Implication: No exhaustion signals; momentum reset favors a continuation attempt.

MACD

• Daily MACD likely flipped positive post-2025-08-22 with histogram turning green; intraday histogram contracted during pullback — a buy-the-dip setup when price holds above the daily pivot.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• 20-period BB mid ≈ 1.330; upper band estimated ≈ 1.56; lower ≈ 1.10.
• Price is consolidating between mid and upper bands after a band expansion — typical of bullish continuation flags.
• ATR(14) daily ≈ 0.12–0.13 — expect 8–10 percent daily travel. A 24h swing from 1.44 to 1.51 is statistically reasonable if trend resumes.

Volume and VSA read

• Aug 22 volume 164M vs prior 60–120M — genuine demand on the impulse.
• Today’s pullback on lighter, more even volume — suggests supply absorption rather than aggressive distribution.
• OBV trajectory turning up from Aug 19 — accumulation backdrop.

Fibonacci mapping (latest impulse 1.2535 → 1.5236)

• 23.6 percent: 1.4598 — grazed during midday; overhead friction intraday.
• 38.2 percent: 1.4204 — tested repeatedly; buyers defended.
• 50 percent: 1.3886 — secondary support if deeper flush.
• 61.8 percent: 1.3565 — trend damage only if lost on a closing basis.

Implication: 1.42–1.44 is the golden buy-the-dip pocket within a healthy retracement.

Intraday microstructure and VWAP

• Session range concentrated 1.42–1.47 with most prints near 1.44–1.45; anchored session VWAP proxy near 1.445–1.448.
• Price oscillating tightly around VWAP late session — equilibrium after selloff, often preceding directional resolution. With higher-timeframe bias up, odds favor an upside VWAP break and hold.

Pattern recognition and Wyckoff lens

• Post-impulse flag: Down-sloping intraday channel after a wide-range up day — textbook bull flag.
• Wyckoff: Sign of Strength (SoS) on Aug 22, today behaving as a Last Point of Support (LPS) around pivot, indicating readiness for a Markup attempt toward R1.

Elliott wave quick take (heuristic)

• Impulse from 1.254 to 1.524 looks like Wave 1, today’s ABC pullback likely Wave 2 into 0.382–0.5 retrace. Wave 3 attempt could target retest of 1.52 then extension toward 1.56 if volume returns. Invalidation: sustained trade below 1.388.

Classical pivots (based on Aug 22 H 1.5236, L 1.2805, C 1.5065)

• Pivot P ≈ 1.4369
• R1 ≈ 1.5933, S1 ≈ 1.3502
• Current price is hovering slightly above P — bullish intraday bias while holding above 1.437.

Scenario analysis — next 24 hours

• Base case 55 percent: Early dip-then-rip. Brief liquidity sweep into 1.432–1.438 (pivot zone), then grind higher to 1.49–1.52. Close near 1.50.
• Bull case 25 percent: Strong continuation. Clean reclaim of 1.456–1.460, break-and-hold above 1.506, extension toward 1.54–1.56 if momentum and volume expand.
• Bear case 20 percent: Lose pivot and 1.420 shelf on volume; slide toward 1.388–1.395 (50 percent fib). Buyers likely reassert there; deeper risk limited unless 1.356 gives way.

Trade plan and execution details

• Rationale: Confluence of daily pivot P ≈ 1.4369, Fibonacci 38.2 percent ≈ 1.4204, intraday support cluster 1.42–1.44, rising short-term MAs, neutral RSI with positive MACD backdrop, and VSA showing pullback on lighter volume.
• Entry style: Limit buy slightly above pivot to increase fill probability while filtering noise.
• Optimal entry: 1.437 (pivot-aligned). If market runs without tag, an alternative is momentum add-on above 1.456 with tight risk — noted here but primary plan is the pivot entry.
• Target: 1.515 — sits just above yesterday’s close and below session high zone, capturing the meat of a VWAP-to-R1 push and the midpoint of R1 supply shelf.
• Risk thoughts: A tactical stop (not part of the required output) would logically sit below 1.413–1.420 structure to preserve a 3.0–3.5 R multiple vs the 1.515 target when entering 1.437.

Key invalidations and risks

• Bearish invalidation on a decisive hourly close below 1.420 with expanding volume — opens 1.388 test.
• Weekend liquidity can amplify wicks; consider slippage tolerance around entry zone.
• If 1.506–1.523 continues to cap with rising supply, expect range chop; patience at support remains preferable to chasing.

Bottom line

The technical composite favors Buy-the-Dip at the daily pivot with a high-probability push back into 1.50–1.52 over the next 24 hours. Risk is well-defined below 1.42–1.41; reward-to-risk is attractive targeting 1.515.