EIGEN: Fading the 38.2% — Short the Bounce for a Measured Drop to 1.35

Comprehensive multi-timeframe, multi-tool technical breakdown for EIGEN (next 24h)

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily trend: Since the Aug 13 local high (1.669), price formed a sharp bearish reversal on Aug 14, then a lower low on Aug 19 (1.254). The bounce into Aug 22 (high 1.524) stalled beneath the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 13–19 drop (1.510), followed by lower highs on Aug 23 (1.509) and intraday Aug 24 (~1.475). Short-term structure is a sequence of lower highs and, today, a test of local equal-lows area around 1.40. Bias: short-term downtrend within a broader range.
• Intraday (hourly) structure: Clear bearish engulfing sequence after the 18:00 UTC thrust to 1.4636. The 19:00 UTC candle wiped out prior hour’s gains and closed on the lows (1.4047) with a notable volume spike. Subsequent hours printed weak bounces that failed at 1.409–1.410. Structure: bear momentum with failed mean-reversion attempts; sellers defending every uptick.
• Key levels (from recent swing interactions):
  • Resistance: 1.412–1.415 (38.2% retracement pivot and intraday supply), 1.44–1.46 (congestion, prior order block), 1.50–1.52 (50–61.8% retrace cluster and recent rejection zone).
  • Supports: 1.405 (classic daily pivot S1 from Aug 23, currently being tested), 1.388–1.372 (intraday lows shelf), 1.352 (23.6% retracement from Aug 13–19 move), 1.313–1.315 (pivot S3 vicinity), 1.253–1.256 (Aug 19 low).

2. Fibonacci confluence mapping

• Primary swing: High 1.669 (Aug 13) to low 1.254 (Aug 19).
  • 23.6% = 1.352; 38.2% = 1.413; 50% = 1.462; 61.8% = 1.510. Price rejected 61.8% (Aug 22–23), then rolled over below 50%, and is currently hovering just under 38.2% (1.413), acting as resistance on intraday bounces. The next magnet on breakdown is 23.6% (1.352), aligning with historical reaction zone. This creates a clean measured-move path: fade 38.2% → target 23.6%.
• Intraday micro swing: 18:00 high 1.4636 to 19:00 low 1.4047; the 0.382/0.5/0.618 retraces are ~1.427/1.434/1.439. Price failed to rebound even to 0.382, indicating strong sellers. This supports momentum continuation lower.

3. Classical pivot points (using Aug 23 H/L/C: 1.509/1.419/1.444)

• Pivot P ≈ 1.457; R1 ≈ 1.496; R2 ≈ 1.548; S1 ≈ 1.405; S2 ≈ 1.367; S3 ≈ 1.315. Current price oscillates around S1. If S1 conclusively breaks, typical next pivot attractor is S2 (1.367). That aligns with intraday lows shelf (1.372) and is midway to the 23.6% daily Fib (1.352), reinforcing the bear path.

4. Moving averages and trend filters (approximations from the provided series)

• Daily 20-SMA ≈ 1.37–1.38; 50-SMA ≈ 1.32–1.34. Current price (~1.405) is marginally above the 20-SMA but below the key resistance cluster (1.44–1.46). The slope of the 20-SMA is flattening after the late-Aug bounce; the short-term (9–13 EMA) set on intraday frames has rolled down beneath the 21/34 EMAs, indicating a short-term bearish alignment.
• On 1h, the 9/21 EMA bear cross occurred post the 19:00 liquidation bar; price is trading below all fast EMAs and below intraday VWAP, favoring sell-the-rip.

5. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) estimate ≈ 53 but slipping, reflecting loss of bullish follow-through after the Aug 22–23 rally. RSI is pivoting near the 50 line; failure to hold 50 on further intraday weakness typically signals a momentum rollover toward the mid-40s, consistent with a push into 1.35–1.37.
• 1h RSI is sub-50 and failed to reclaim it on bounces, a classic bear-control signature.
• MACD daily: Histogram has begun contracting after peaking on the bounce; signal cross risk increases if price holds below 1.44–1.46. 1h MACD is negative with expanding histogram after the 19:00 breakdown.

6. Volatility and ATR

• Daily ATR has hovered around 0.12–0.16 in August; a 24h swing of 3–8% has been common. A move from ~1.41 to 1.35–1.37 (3–5%) is squarely within one ATR. Intraday 1h ranges near 0.02–0.06 further support room for a breakdown test without requiring outsized volatility.

7. Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

• Mid-band (approx 20-SMA) near 1.37–1.38; upper band likely ~1.50–1.52; lower band ~1.23–1.25. Price is just above the mid-band but failing to gain traction; rejecting lower highs under the mid-to-upper band zone is typically bearish in a mean-reversion-to-trend transition, with scope to drift back toward mid/lower band if S1 gives way.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative approximation)

• Tenkan (9-period mid) ≈ 1.46; Kijun (26-period mid) ≈ 1.34. Price below Tenkan and modestly above Kijun → corrective-to-bearish short-term tone. Cloud likely overhead around 1.45–1.48. Chikou spans would be encountering recent price congestion. Net: resistance overhead is dense; acceptance below Tenkan typically sees a reversion toward Kijun or even a probe beneath if momentum persists (Kijun zone 1.33–1.34 is a secondary south-of-target waypoint beyond the next 24h horizon).

9. Volume, order flow, and profile

• The 19:00 UTC hour showed a decisive sell candle with elevated volume, breaking the prior rising structure. Follow-through attempts faced supply almost immediately (20:00–21:00), pointing to an order block of sellers defending 1.409–1.415 and heavier supply over 1.44.
• Volume-by-price impression (from the sequence of closes): thick node around 1.40–1.42, low-volume pocket towards 1.35, and another node near 1.31–1.33. Once the 1.40–1.42 node flips to resistance, price often travels quickly to the next liquidity pool (1.36–1.35) before encountering meaningful counterflow.

10. Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• 1h bearish engulfing/event-driven reversal from the 18:00–19:00 block, with subsequent small-bodied candles failing to regain lost ground → classic continuation setup.
• On the daily, the Aug 22–23 two-day pattern created an upthrust into the 50–61.8% retracement, followed by a lower close — a common bull-trap signature.
• Developing intraday descending triangle: lower highs against a relatively flat shelf near 1.40; breakdown measure would target the height of the pattern (~1.463–1.404 ≈ 0.059) projected down from 1.40 → ~1.34–1.35, matching the Fib 23.6% and pivot S2/S3 path.

11. Mean-reversion vs momentum regime check

• Regime appears to be transitioning from mean-reversion (Aug 19–22 recovery) back to momentum-led selling (post Aug 23). Failure to reclaim VWAP/EMAs and lower high structure points to momentum continuity over the next 24 hours.

12. VWAP and intraday context

• Today’s VWAP (qualitatively, given heavy weight of the 19:00 red bar) is likely above spot, around 1.415–1.42. Price remains below VWAP, and every VWAP reversion attempt is sold. Strategy edge favors shorting into VWAP/supply re-tests rather than chasing breakdowns, unless 1.400 cleanly snaps with volume.

13. Harmonics and extensions (heuristic)

• If we treat 1.4636 → 1.4047 as the impulsive leg, 1.618 extension projects near 1.368–1.370 on a follow-on leg from a shallow pullback — aligning with S2 (1.367). A full measured triangle break also projects 1.34–1.35. These harmonize into a support band where profit-taking is sensible.

14. Risk factors and alternate scenario

• Bullish alternate: A firm reclaim and 1h close above 1.415 (38.2% retrace) followed by acceptance above 1.44 would negate the immediate short and reopen 1.462/1.50 tests. This would likely coincide with 1h RSI regaining >50 and MACD curling up. Probability assigned: ~35% near-term.
• Base case bearish: Failure below 1.412 with repeated rejections at 1.409–1.415 leads to a flush of 1.400 and probes into 1.388/1.372 first, with a 24h reach toward 1.352 achievable if momentum persists. Probability assigned: ~65% near-term.

15. Trade plan synthesis (24h)

• Bias: Sell strength into 1.409–1.415, targeting the 1.352 Fib 23.6% confluence for take-profit. If bounce fails to reach 1.412, momentum-entry is acceptable on a confirmed break of 1.399 with volume, but the optimal (higher R:R) remains to sell the bounce.
• Entry (optimal): 1.412–1.413 zone (just below the 38.2% daily retracement pivot where supply is active). Proposed single price for order: 1.4125.
• Take-profit: 1.352 (Fib 23.6% + pattern projection). This captures a clean 4–4.5% move within one daily ATR.
• Suggested protective stop (for risk management, not part of the requested fields): 1.456–1.458 (above daily pivot P≈1.457 and the 50% retrace), yielding R:R ≈ 1.3–1.5 depending on fill; trail if price slices 1.388 decisively.
• Execution note: If the market immediately breaks 1.400 before tagging 1.412, consider waiting for a weak retest of 1.405–1.409 to avoid poor fills in a fast tape.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• Multiple tools (Fibonacci, pivots, intraday structure, EMAs/VWAP, RSI/MACD, pattern projection) align on a modestly bearish continuation with a high-probability path toward 1.37 first and 1.35 as the main target. Reclaiming and holding above 1.415 would be the first sign this view is wrong; above 1.44 would fully invalidate the short-term short thesis.