EigenLayer poised for a second-leg push: Buy the 1.618 pullback, aim for a 1.70+ retest

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish with consolidation. Expect a buyable dip toward 1.60–1.62, followed by a push into 1.68–1.71. Stretch target on a breakout: 1.72–1.74. Downside risk retest: 1.56–1.58.
• Trade plan (swing-intraday): Buy the pullback at 1.618 (limit). First objective 1.69–1.71; manage risk below 1.572 (today’s demand pocket). Alternate trigger: momentum add on break and hold above 1.656.

1. Price action and structure

• Higher timeframe (daily): From Sep 1 low (~1.136) to Sep 13 high (~1.763) price completed a strong markup. Today (Sep 14) retraced intraday to 1.562 and recovered to ~1.63, printing a potential daily hammer/long lower shadow if the session closes near current levels. That’s classic bullish continuation after a shallow corrective day.
• Trend sequence: Higher highs (1.666 on Aug 13, then 1.763 on Sep 13) and higher lows (1.30s → 1.40s → 1.53–1.56 zone). Current pullback respects a shallow-to-moderate retracement, consistent with a trend that remains intact.
• Intraday (hourly) microstructure: After the selloff to 1.562, price carved a series of higher lows: 1.562 → 1.585 → 1.592 → 1.594 → 1.602 → 1.636. Tops repeatedly capped near 1.656. That’s an ascending triangle behavior, favoring upside resolution if 1.656 breaks on volume.

2. Support/resistance mapping

• Major resistance: 1.666 (Aug 13 closing pivot) and 1.715–1.763 (Sep 13 supply zone; prior spike high). If 1.666 breaks and holds, a run to test 1.705/1.715 is probable, with extension risk to 1.74–1.76.
• Near resistance: 1.656 (intraday ceiling), 1.641–1.646 (intraday supply shelf); both tested repeatedly today.
• Major supports: 1.535–1.548 (Sep 12 close and cluster), 1.50–1.51 (late Aug value) as a deeper fallback if momentum fails.
• Near supports: 1.58–1.60 (afternoon base), 1.56 (today’s low and key liquidity sweep). The 1.60–1.62 pocket aligns with pullback buy area.

3. Moving averages (approximations)

• 7D SMA ≈ 1.48; 21D SMA ≈ 1.36–1.40; 50D SMA ≈ 1.30–1.33. Price at ~1.63 is above all of them; slopes are up. That’s a classic bullish stack (price > fast MA > slow MA) confirming trend health.
• 10/20-EMA differential: Positive and widening during Sep 12–13, now slightly cooling but still positive. Pullbacks toward the 10–20 EMA zone (roughly 1.58–1.62) are typically buyable in trend.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Likely mid-to-high 50s/low 60s after the dip (down from likely 65–70 yesterday). That’s bullish but not overbought; room to push higher.
• RSI(14) hourly: Rebounded from oversold region during the 1.562 low; now cycling positively with higher lows, consistent with an ascending triangle build.
• Stoch RSI (conceptual): Reset on the pullback, crossing up — supportive of a near-term push.

5. MACD assessment (12/26/9 EMA framework, qualitative)

• Daily MACD line above signal after the strong run into Sep 13; histogram likely compressed during today’s dip but remains on the positive side or close to flipping back up on renewed momentum. That argues for continuation after consolidation.
• Hourly MACD: Bearish in the morning session, flipped toward neutral/bullish as higher lows formed, consistent with a potential breakout through 1.656.

6. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (approx): 0.13–0.18. Today’s high-low (1.728–1.562 ≈ 0.166) sits inside that range. Expect 24h move envelope roughly 1.56–1.70/1.72, with tails possible to 1.74–1.76 if momentum accelerates.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Mid-band (20SMA) around 1.35–1.40; upper band estimated near 1.65–1.70 given rising vol. Yesterday probed beyond the upper band; today reversion toward, but still near, the upper band. Trading near the upper band inside an uptrend often signals buy-the-dip rather than fade-the-trend.
• Bollinger Bands hourly: Price hugging mid-to-upper bands into the evening; likelihood of upper band walk if 1.656 breaks.

7. Fibonacci mapping (swing Sep 1 low 1.136 → Sep 13 high 1.763)

• Range = 0.627.
• 23.6%: 1.763 – 0.148 ≈ 1.615.
• 38.2%: 1.763 – 0.239 ≈ 1.524.
• Today’s low 1.562 sits between 23.6% and 38.2%, a modest retracement consistent with a strong trend. Reclaiming 1.615 (23.6%) and holding is constructive. That is why 1.615–1.618 is a preferred buy zone.
• Fibonacci extensions (if breakout): 127.2% of the last pullback (1.562→1.656 ≈ 0.094) from 1.618 trigger projects to roughly 1.711, aligning with the 1.705–1.715 resistance cluster.

8. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Daily volume surged on Sep 13 (206M), marking a buying climax/expansion. Today’s lighter but healthy volume on a higher low suggests absorption rather than distribution.
• Volume profile (recent weeks): Notable nodes around 1.40–1.45 and 1.50–1.55. The 1.53–1.56 shelf (Sep 11–12 value area) acted as intraday demand today. Above 1.65, profile thins until ~1.70–1.72, enabling swift moves if resistance breaks.
• Intraday VWAP (today, qualitative): Price spent the latter part of the day reclaiming and oscillating around VWAP — a constructive sign after a morning discount.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price > Cloud; Tenkan (9) likely around ~1.52; Kijun (26) around ~1.40. With price at ~1.63, we remain above both lines and a bullish cloud. Chikou span above price history — trend-confirming. Pullbacks to Tenkan typically get bought in strong trends; today’s 1.56–1.60 approach and bounce is consistent with that dynamic.

10. Market phases: Wyckoff lens

• Sep 1–12: Accumulation/re-accumulation and markup.
• Sep 13: Buying Climax/Sign of Strength.
• Sep 14: Automatic Reaction and Secondary Test range between 1.56 and 1.65. Structure looks like a re-accumulation pause, not a topping distribution (yet). A successful Sign of Strength would be a sustained break and acceptance above 1.656/1.666.

11. Pattern diagnostics

• Ascending triangle on hourly (base rising from 1.562, flat-ish cap near 1.656). Measured move = triangle height (~0.094) projected from breakout ≈ 1.75 potential (in a strong session) but more conservatively 1.70–1.72 inside 24h given ATR.
• Candlestick: Today shaping a hammer/reversal day from demand with close above the midrange — constructive for next session follow-through.

12. Mean-reversion vs trend considerations

• After touching the daily upper Bollinger yesterday, a one-day mean reversion occurred. Price now resets while still above rising MAs. This mix typically favors trend continuation with pullback buys over aggressive fades, unless 1.56 is broken decisively.

13. Risk management and invalidation

• Invalidation for the long thesis near-term: sustained acceptance below 1.56 (today’s sweep low) would indicate the re-accumulation view failed and raise odds of a deeper retrace toward 1.52–1.50.
• Practical stop for a pullback entry 1.618: 1.572–1.579 (below the afternoon demand shelf) to avoid getting shaken on minor liquidity wicks.
• Expected 24h path probabilities (qualitative):
  • 60%: Consolidate 1.60–1.66, break 1.656 to test 1.68–1.71.
  • 25%: Chop 1.58–1.65 without breakout; range trades dominate.
  • 15%: Bear break under 1.56 → slide toward 1.52–1.54.

14. Synthesis and 24h outlook

• Multiple signals (trend alignment over MAs, shallow Fib retrace, hourly ascending triangle, constructive volume/absorption, and a potential daily hammer) skew the next 24 hours modestly bullish. A tactical long on a controlled pullback near 1.615–1.618 offers favorable reward-to-risk to a 1.70–1.71 test. A momentum add can be justified on a clean hourly close above 1.656, targeting 1.705/1.715 and possibly wicks to 1.72–1.74 if momentum accelerates.

Actionable levels

• Buy zone (limit): 1.615–1.620 (selected: 1.618).
• Breakout trigger: 1.656 (hourly close and hold), with 1.666 as the follow-through confirmation.
• Profit zone: 1.69–1.71 (primary), extension 1.72–1.74 if volume expands.
• Invalidation (discretionary stop reference): below 1.572/1.56.

Bottom line

• Plan: Buy (long). Open at 1.618. Take profit at 1.708 (mid of 1.69–1.71 cluster, front-running 1.715 supply). If breakout occurs before pullback, either chase on 1.656+ retest or keep the limit and reassess.