EIGEN presses prior ATH: buy the 1.70–1.72 retest for a run at 1.86

Executive summary

• Context: EIGEN just reclaimed and is pressing into the prior all‑time high area from Sep 13 (≈1.7628). Current price 1.7566 after a sharp multi‑hour impulse from ~1.53. Structure has flipped decisively bullish on daily and intraday. Expect a brief pullback/retest, then a test/raid of the prior high with a high probability of marginal new highs if volume persists.
• 24h View: Base case is a shallow pullback toward 1.71–1.72 (breakout retest), followed by a push toward 1.83–1.87 (first extensions). Alternative case is a failed breakout with a mean‑reversion to 1.65–1.62. Bias: Buy dips; momentum plus volume expansion favors continuation.

1. Multi‑timeframe trend and market structure

• Daily structure: Higher highs/lows since early September. The sequence 1.3646 (Sep 5) → 1.5354 (Sep 12) → 1.7153 (Sep 13) → higher low band 1.536–1.563 (Sep 16–15) → current push to 1.7566 shows trend resumption after a healthy 38–50% retrace of the prior impulse.
• Weekly context (inferred from daily): Trend up since late August base (~1.20–1.25). No overhead supply beyond 1.763; price is effectively probing price discovery.
• Intraday (hourly): Since 16:00–20:50 UTC, clear impulsive leg: 1.50s → 1.74–1.76 with rising volume; shallow pullbacks and higher lows indicate strong control by buyers.

2. Key levels (support/resistance)

• Resistance
  • 1.763: Prior ATH from Sep 13; liquidity sitting above it. Expect a break/raid and potential acceleration to psychological 1.80 and then 1.83–1.87.
  • 1.80: Round number and likely band top near upper Bollinger on daily.
  • 1.83–1.87: Fibonacci extension cluster (details below).
• Support
  • 1.74–1.737: Intraday close and micro shelf (20:00 UTC). First intraday defense.
  • 1.70–1.698: Breakout pivot from 19:00–20:00 UTC; prime retest zone.
  • 1.66–1.62: Daily structure support from 9/11–9/15 cluster; failure to hold ~1.66 would open deeper pullback to ~1.62.
  • 1.536–1.56: Daily higher‑low base; strong medium‑term demand if a larger retrace occurs (low probability within 24h unless a sharp risk‑off shock hits).

3. Momentum & oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): ~72. This is “overbought” by textbook standards, but in trending regimes overbought often indicates strength. Room remains up to mid/high‑70s if expansion continues.
• Hourly RSI spiked on the impulse; expect a brief cooldown to mid‑50s/60s on a 1.71–1.72 dip before another leg up.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Fast line above slow with a rising histogram since Sep 11; bullish expansion. On hourly, MACD flipped sharply positive during today’s impulse—typical of the start of a new thrust.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (approx): 0.16–0.18. From 1.7566, a typical 1‑ATR move targets 1.58–1.94; a 0.5–0.8 ATR pullback is 1.70–1.72—precisely the preferred buy zone.
• Bollinger Bands (20D, approx): SMA ~1.395, stdev ~0.20. Upper band ≈1.395 + 2*0.20 ≈ 1.795. Price at 1.7566 is near but not yet stretched beyond the upper band; room to tag ~1.79–1.80 before a stronger mean reversion.

5. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA ≈ 1.395; price is ~26% above—strong uptrend. Slope turned positive weeks ago.
• 50D SMA (qualitative): Likely ~1.30–1.33. Clear bullish MA stack (price > 20D > 50D). No 200D reference.
• MA behavior suggests buying pullbacks to rising MAs; however, those sit far below spot, so intraday support zones (1.70/1.66) become operational buy‑the‑dip areas.

6. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Daily volume expanded on up days (Sep 11–13) and contracted on pullbacks (Sep 14–16), a bullish volume signature. Today’s intraday hours (18:00–20:00 UTC) recorded notable surges (≈28M, 19.8M, 14.8M), confirming participation in the breakout attempt.
• OBV (qualitative) rising since Sep 5; no bearish divergence versus price highs visible in the provided data.

7. Market profile/microstructure angles

• Liquidity pools: Stops/limit interest likely above 1.763 (prior ATH). A wick/raid through 1.763 to 1.78–1.80 is probable. Post‑raid behavior will define whether we trend or revert; strong acceptance above 1.763 favors continuation to 1.83–1.87.
• Breakout retest mechanics: The 1.70–1.72 band is an attractive region where late shorts are trapped and early longs add; expect buyers to defend it on first touch.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing A: Sep 16 low 1.5108 to current 1.7566. Range = 0.2458.
  • 1.272 ext: 1.5108 + 0.2458*1.272 ≈ 1.823.
  • 1.414 ext: 1.5108 + 0.2458*1.414 ≈ 1.858–1.862.
  • 1.618 ext: 1.5108 + 0.2458*1.618 ≈ 1.908.
• Confluence: 1.82–1.86 is the first realistic 24h target zone given ATR and extension alignment, with 1.90 as a stretch if momentum/volume remain hot.

9. Pivot analysis (Classic, using Sep 16 H/L/C ≈ 1.6177/1.5108/1.5362)

• P ≈ 1.5549; R1 ≈ 1.5991; R2 ≈ 1.6619; R3 ≈ 1.7061. Price has cleared R3 today—indicative of trend day dynamics. On trend days, continuation beyond R3 is common; retraces often hold near R3/P prior session. That maps well to 1.70 retest mechanics.

10. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price > cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; forward cloud likely bullish (twist already positive). Typical behavior is shallow pullbacks to Tenkan on strong impulses, aligning with a 1.70–1.72 dip on intraday frames.

11. Donchian/Breakout systems

• 20D Donchian high ≈ 1.763 (prior ATH). We’re challenging this channel high. A daily close above forms a breakout signal; breakout systems then target 1x–1.5x ATR above the channel (≈1.92–2.02 over several sessions). Within 24h, 0.5–1.0 ATR over the breakout gives 1.83–1.94.

12. Pattern diagnostics

• Ascending triangle (micro): Higher intraday lows into fixed resistance ~1.763 suggests an ascending structure. Breakout probability improves with each test; today’s volume expansion increases odds of success.
• Double‑top risk: Immediate rejection from 1.76–1.78 without acceptance could produce a fast slip to 1.70 then 1.66. Probability lower than breakout given trend context, but not negligible.

13. Elliott/Wyckoff framing (qualitative)

• Elliott: Wave 1 (Sep 5–13), Wave 2 (Sep 14–16 correction), Wave 3 initiation today. Wave 3 sub‑targets align with 1.27–1.62 extensions (1.82–1.91).
• Wyckoff: Reaccumulation after an up‑thrust in mid‑Sep; today looks like Sign of Strength (SOS) with potential Back‑Up to the Creek (BUTC) near 1.70–1.72 before continuation.

14. Relative/flow considerations

• VWAP (intraday, qualitative): Price well above today’s volume‑weighted mean (likely ~1.65–1.68). Persistent positive VWAP drift implies trend day; first VWAP reversion could be shallow and bought.
• Cross‑asset context: Not provided; assumption neutral. If majors remain stable to positive, continuation odds for alts improve.

15. Scenario map for next 24 hours

• Bullish continuation (≈60%): Brief dip to 1.71–1.72, then break above 1.763 to 1.80. If acceptance above 1.80, extension into 1.83–1.87. Close in upper quartile of day.
• Range/failed breakout (≈25%): Rejection 1.76–1.78, retrace to 1.70. If 1.70 fails on volume, probe 1.66–1.62; buyers likely defend 1.62 on first test.
• Sharp reversal (≈15%): Macro or idiosyncratic shock drives a full mean‑reversion to 1.56–1.54; would require sustained distribution—low probability given current tape.

16. Trade plan logic (execution)

• Edge: Confluence of trend, volume expansion, and resistance retest into a prior ATH favors buying a controlled pullback rather than chasing highs.
• Optimal entry: 1.72 (midpoint of 1.70–1.74 support stack; near R3 retest). If price does not pull back, the alternate is a momentum add on confirmed breakout >1.764 with acceptance; however, the primary plan is the pullback entry.
• Targeting: First take‑profit window at 1.83–1.87. Choose 1.862 to sit just beneath the 1.414 extension and ahead of round‑number liquidity at 1.87–1.90.
• Invalidation (not part of the schema but operationally relevant): Below 1.66 on a closing/hourly acceptance basis would suggest the breakout failed; deeper invalidation below 1.62.

17. Risk considerations

• Overbought readings can persist in trends; risk lies in a quick double‑top rejection. Manage via disciplined entry (on dip), and pre‑defined exit points.
• Liquidity hunts around ATH often produce wicks; avoid chasing the first poke above 1.763 without confirmation or use tight risk if doing so.

Conclusion

• Bias: Buy dips. Expect a 1.70–1.72 retest, then continuation toward 1.83–1.87 within 24 hours if volume persists.
• Decision: Buy (Long position).
• Plan: Open ≈1.72; Close/TP ≈1.862.