EIGEN Breakout Breathes: Buy the 1.90–1.92 Dip for a Push Toward 2.08

Executive summary

• Bias for next 24h: Moderately bullish continuation after a high-volume breakout, with an initial dip-buy zone around 1.90–1.92 and upside retest toward 2.02–2.09. Expected intraday range: 1.89–2.08; skewed to the upside if 1.89 holds.

Price action and structure

• Daily trend: Strong uptrend since early September (higher highs/lows). The prior swing high (1.763 on Sep 13) was cleanly exceeded on Sep 17–18. Current price 1.9305 sits above all recent moving averages and prior resistance—now support.
• Intraday (hourly) structure (Sep 18): Breakout to 2.0869 in the early session, followed by orderly pullback/consolidation. Local supports have formed at 1.91–1.92 and 1.89, with lower-high sequence breaking around 13:00–16:00 UTC and then stabilizing around 1.93–1.95.

Volume and participation

• Massive volume expansion on Sep 17–18 versus the 30-day average, confirming the breakout (trend-validating participation). Pullback volume decelerated versus the impulse legs—constructive for continuation.

Momentum and oscillators

• Daily momentum: RSI(14) likely >70 post-breakout (overbought but healthy in trend). MACD is positive and widening; signal-line crossover already occurred earlier in the week.
• Hourly momentum: RSI cooled from overbought to neutral on the consolidation; momentum reset without breaking key support—bullish setup for a second leg.

Volatility/ATR and bands

• Daily ATR has expanded, typical in early trend acceleration. Bollinger Bands have opened; price rode the upper band and mean-reverted toward the 23.6% retracement, maintaining support—suggesting trend continuation over full mean reversion.

Support/resistance map (confluence)

• Supports: 1) 1.89–1.90 (Fibo 23.6% of 1.253→2.0869 and hourly shelf), 2) 1.86–1.87 (hourly consolidation base), 3) 1.76–1.77 (prior daily breakout level).
• Resistances: 1) 1.98–2.00 (pivot R1 cluster/psychological), 2) 2.06–2.09 (session high zone), 3) 2.13 (pivot R2/Fibo extension target zone).

Fibonacci context (from 1.253 low on Sep 3 to 2.0869 high on Sep 18)

• 23.6%: ~1.889; 38.2%: ~1.767; 50%: ~1.668. Current price sits just above 23.6%—a classic shallow retracement in strong trends.

Pivot framework (based on Sep 17 daily H/L/C: 1.8909/1.4968/1.8246)

• P ≈ 1.737; R1 ≈ 1.978; R2 ≈ 2.132; S1 ≈ 1.584. Today probed above R1 and retraced—normal behavior post-breakout. R2 remains an achievable stretch if momentum re-accelerates.

Ichimoku snapshot (daily)

• Price well above cloud; bullish TK cross and rising Leading Span A/B—trend-confirmatory. Any pullback into 1.86–1.90 should find dip demand unless momentum decisively breaks.

Pattern read

• Breakout + bull flag/sideways consolidation on the hourly. Failed breakdown attempts below 1.91 were bought, keeping pattern integrity. A push through 1.98–2.00 would likely trigger momentum flows to 2.06–2.09.

Wyckoff lens

• Phase E markup with expansion in spread and volume; the current pullback resembles a secondary test rather than distribution.

24h scenario analysis

• Base case (55%): Hold 1.89–1.92, then grind higher to 2.02–2.08; close near the upper half of the range.
• Bull extension (25%): Quick reclaim of 2.00 leads to 2.06–2.13 test; if 2.09 breaks on volume, extension toward 2.13 becomes likely.
• Bear risk (20%): Loss of 1.89 opens a deeper retrace toward 1.86 and possibly 1.77; would delay, not necessarily negate, the uptrend.

Risk management notes

• Key invalidation for the short-term long thesis: sustained hourly close below 1.886 (23.6% level and intraday shelf). A deeper structural caution flag appears only below ~1.77 (prior breakout).

Trade plan (24h horizon)

• Bias: Buy dips into support for a momentum continuation.
• Optimal entry: Limit buy around 1.92 (within the 1.90–1.92 demand band), where there is confluence of hourly structure and Fib 23.6% defense.
• Profit target (24h): 2.08 (retest of the 2.06–2.09 supply).
• Optional risk guard (not part of output fields): Stop below 1.886 to keep R:R ≈ 1:2 given the target range.

Conclusion

• The breakout is validated by volume, momentum remains positive, and pullback depth is shallow. Probability-weighted expectation favors another push toward 2.02–2.09 over the next 24 hours, provided 1.89 holds.