EIGEN: Buying the 50% Pullback—Poised for a 1.90–1.95 Re-test Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish continuation after a sharp run-up and a healthy pullback into clustered supports. Expect a base/bounce toward 1.90–1.95, with downside probes to 1.82–1.84 likely to be bought.
• Plan: Buy the dip around 1.84–1.85 (ideally 1.842), target a push into 1.94–1.96. If 1.82 fails decisively, the market risks a deeper mean-reversion toward 1.78–1.74.

1. Market structure and trend

• Higher timeframe (daily): Uptrend intact. Sequence of higher highs and higher lows from early September remains unbroken. New swing high was set on 2025-09-18 at 2.0874 after a strong breakout day (volume climax), followed by today’s orderly pullback.
• Intermediate structure: The pullback from 2.087 to the current 1.84 area is a textbook retracement after an expansion day. No daily close has undercut the prior breakout zone (1.72–1.78), which keeps the trend constructive.
• Intraday (last 24h): Lower highs through much of the session, but buyers defended 1.83–1.85 repeatedly. Late-session stabilization and minor higher low formation suggest selling pressure is waning as volatility compresses.

2. Support and resistance map

• Overhead resistance:
  • R1: 1.90–1.93 (multiple intraday rejection wicks; round-number magnet at 1.90)
  • R2: 1.95–2.00 (recent intraday highs and psychological round number; prior day peak supply)
  • R3: 2.05–2.09 (9/18 spike high zone)
• Supports:
  • S1: 1.83–1.85 (current battle zone; strong responsive bids intraday)
  • S2: 1.78–1.80 (minor shelf from 9/14–9/16 and local VWAP estimates)
  • S3: 1.72–1.74 (prior breakout region; strong higher timeframe demand)

3. Fibonacci confluence (two lenses)

• Impulse leg A: 9/17 low 1.4968 to 9/18 high 2.0874 (Δ ≈ 0.5906)
  • 38.2%: 1.8618
  • 50%: 1.8411
  • 61.8%: 1.8205 Current price (≈1.844) sits exactly at the 50%–61.8% retracement cluster, a high-probability mean-reversion buy zone if trend remains intact.
• Broader upswing B: 9/09 low 1.38197 to 9/18 high 2.08742 (Δ ≈ 0.70545)
  • 38.2%: 1.8179
  • 50%: 1.7347
  • 61.8%: 1.6515 Today’s pullback has not even tagged the broader 38.2% (1.818), indicating the larger trend remains extended but healthy.

4. Moving averages (trend confirmation)

• Short-term EMAs/SMA (10–20 period) are rising sharply; price is above them on the daily, though stretched. A pullback toward the 10–20D moving averages (estimated 1.60–1.70 given recent acceleration) is plausible in a deeper shakeout, but current defense above 1.82 implies buyers willing to step in sooner.
• Medium-term (50D) also rising; the slope acceleration since early September confirms a new higher-volatility bullish regime.
• Conclusion: MAs confirm bullish structure; near-term pullback is normalization after overextension.

5. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily): Likely cooled from overbought (>70) toward the mid-60s/upper-50s after today’s pullback. This is typical post-breakout digestion rather than trend failure.
• Stochastics: Rolling off from extreme; a cross up from mid-range would be a constructive trigger if price holds above 1.83–1.85.
• MACD: Line remains positive; histogram has rolled over from a peak, consistent with momentum deceleration, not reversal. A shallow pullback with MACD staying above zero is bullish continuation.

6. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) has expanded materially (recent daily ranges of ~0.25–0.40). Elevated ATR favors buying pullbacks near support and taking profits into resistance rather than chasing breakouts.
• Bollinger Bands: Bands have widened (“expansion”) after the 9/17–9/18 thrust. Price tagged/approached the upper band and is now reverting toward the mid-zone. In strong trends, price often oscillates between upper band and mid-band without fully mean-reverting; the 1.83–1.85 tag aligns with a mid-channel dip on intraday frames.
• Keltner Channels: Compression gave way to expansion during the breakout; current price resting near the upper-to-middle channel region is conducive to a flag/bull-pennant continuation.

7. Volume, participation, and order flow cues

• 9/18 posted a volume climax on the breakout to 2.087, often a marker for a short-term top but typically followed by bullish consolidation if subsequent down-volume is controlled. Today’s pullback volumes are lighter than the breakout day (healthy digestion).
• Intraday tape: Multiple tests of 1.83–1.85 attracted buyers. The swift rejections above 1.90 show supply overhang, but not dominance; sellers could not press a breakdown below 1.83.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising throughout September; recent plateau mirrors consolidation rather than distribution.

8. Ichimoku Cloud (qualitative read)

• Price well above the Kumo; Leading Span A > Span B, bullish configuration.
• Tenkan (conversion) likely near recent fast support (≈1.80–1.83), Kijun (base) lower (≈1.70s). Price pulling toward Tenkan is a classic “buy-the-first-touch” behavior in trends.
• Chikou span above price and cloud, confirming trend strength.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Daily 9/18 candle: Long upper wick suggests an exhaustive thrust intraday, but the close held high relative to the swing—more a “climax and pause” than a key reversal.
• Today: Inside-to-narrowing follow-through with buyers defending 1.83–1.85, forming a developing bull flag on lower time frames. A break above 1.90–1.93 would confirm flag resolution.
• Elliott wave (heuristic): 9/09–9/18 looks like a 3rd wave extension; current action resembles a wave-4 shallow retracement, setting up a final push (wave-5) attempt into the 1.95–2.05 zone.

10. Mean-reversion and statistical context

• Z-score vs 20D mean likely cooled from elevated levels; price still >1 standard deviation above longer-term means, typical of early trend phases. Favor leaning long on dips rather than initiating shorts into a strong regime.
• Seasonality/liquidity: Heading into weekend hours can reduce liquidity and increase wicks; that favors buying near well-defined supports and avoiding market orders mid-range.

11. Risk scenarios (next 24h) with probabilities

• Base case (45%): Hold 1.83–1.85, grind higher to 1.90–1.93, partial fill of overhead supply, close near 1.90.
• Bull case (30%): Quick flush to 1.82–1.83 that’s bought aggressively; expansion leg to 1.95–1.98, possibly wicking 2.00 if momentum rekindles.
• Bear case (25%): Loss of 1.82 on increasing sell pressure; air pocket to 1.78–1.80. If liquidity is thin, a tail toward 1.74 (50% broad Fib) could print before mean reversion. Uptrend remains intact above 1.72.

12. Confluence summary (why buy here)

• Price sits on a dense support cluster: 50–61.8% retracement of the 9/17–9/18 impulse (1.841–1.821), intraday defended zone (1.83–1.85), and Tenkan-like fast support.
• Momentum has cooled without structural damage; MACD > 0, higher timeframe MAs rising, structure of higher highs/lows preserved.
• Volatility has normalized from the spike; pullbacks in elevated ATR regimes within strong trends tend to get bought.
• Clear invalidation: A decisive break and hold below ~1.82 would argue for a deeper mean reversion; until then, risk-reward favors longs into 1.90–1.95.

13. Trading plan (execution and risk)

• Entry: Limit buy near 1.842 to capture the 50% retracement cluster and intraday defended shelf.
• Profit-taking: Primary target 1.955 (just under intraday resistance 1.95–1.96 to increase fill probability). Secondary extension (if momentum surges) up to 1.98–2.00, but base plan banks at 1.955 within 24h.
• Invalidation (not required but prudent): A firm break and hourly close below 1.820 suggests stepping aside, as odds favor a test of 1.78–1.74 next.

Outlook for the next 24 hours

• Expect choppy-to-up price action: early sweep risk to 1.83–1.84, followed by a rebound probing 1.90–1.95. The trend remains constructive; buying weakness near 1.84 offers attractive asymmetry with clear invalidation and visible overhead targets.