EIGEN coiling under 1.90: Buy the dip for a push toward 1.95

Executive summary

• Bias: Moderately bullish over the next 24 hours, with a constructive consolidation just below resistance and buyers defending higher lows.
• Expected 24h range: 1.80–1.95, with a non-trivial chance of a squeeze into 1.96–2.00 if 1.90–1.92 breaks on rising volume.
• Strategy: Buy the dip into the mid-1.84s with a target near the 1.95 resistance cluster. Consider a protective stop below 1.80 (not required for the output fields, but strongly suggested for risk control).

Step-by-step technical analysis

1. Trend structure and market regime

• Higher time frame (daily) trend: Uptrend since early September. Sequence of higher highs/lows: 9/11→9/12→9/13 breakout leg; continuation 9/17–9/18 to new peak; shallow pullback on 9/19; today (9/20) printing a green day above yesterday’s close.
• Price relative to moving averages: Current price 1.854 > 7D MA ≈ 1.706 > 14D MA ≈ 1.565 > 21D MA ≈ 1.452. Bullish alignment (short > medium > long), confirming an established uptrend.
• Structure since the 9/18 high (2.087): Two-day digestion with a higher-low defense near 1.78–1.80 and repeated tests of 1.88–1.90. This resembles a bull flag/ascending consolidation beneath resistance.

2. Momentum gauges

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 70.1: Mildly overbought, but not extreme. After a strong impulse 9/17–9/18, the RSI cooled modestly (9/19) and is stabilizing; this favors a continuation attempt if resistance yields.
• MACD (qualitative): Positive and above signal after the mid-Sept surge; histogram likely compressing as price digests gains. A fresh bullish expansion would require a decisive break above 1.90–1.92.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Elevated but not pinned; consistent with a trending market that is consolidating.

3. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (approx): 0.18–0.21. Expect broad 24h swings of ~10–12% in crypto terms, compatible with a 1.80–1.95 baseline range.
• Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ; approximate): Mid near ~1.45, upper ~1.83–1.86 given recent dispersion. Price hugging/oscillating near the upper band indicates trend persistence; pullbacks have been shallow to mid-band on lower time frames.

4. Fibonacci mapping of the impulse and pullback

• swing low (9/16) ≈ 1.511; swing high (9/18) ≈ 2.087; range ≈ 0.576.
• Key retracements from the high: 38.2% ≈ 1.867; 50% ≈ 1.799; 61.8% ≈ 1.731.
• Price tested the 50% zone (1.78–1.80) and bounced; currently oscillating around the 38.2% (1.867). Holding/reclaiming 1.867 on a closing basis is constructive and opens room toward 23.6% ≈ 1.951.

5. Horizontal supports and resistances

• Supports: 1.80 (9/20 intraday cluster and 50% Fib), 1.78 (session/weekly pivot shelf), 1.71–1.72 (prior breakout area). 1.536–1.56 is a deeper daily support but likely out of scope for 24h.
• Resistances: 1.88–1.90 (multi-hour ceiling), 1.914 (R1 pivot), 1.95–1.96 (Fib 23.6% + round number + supply), 1.96–2.00 (psychological/momentum trigger); 2.02–2.08 (R2/R3 daily pivots and prior high supply).

6. Pivot points (based on 9/19 H/L/C ≈ 1.959/1.798/1.811)

• Pivot P ≈ 1.856. Price is oscillating just below/around P (current 1.854). Intraday acceptance above P typically targets R1 next.
• R1 ≈ 1.914; R2 ≈ 2.017; R3 ≈ 2.075.
• S1 ≈ 1.753; S2 ≈ 1.695; S3 ≈ 1.592.

7. Intraday structure (hourly 9/20)

• Early session dip to ~1.783, then steady higher lows: 1.79 → 1.81 → 1.83 with multiple attempts toward 1.88–1.89. Buyers are active on dips; sellers defend 1.88–1.90.
• Micro support band: 1.821–1.830 (multiple taps and rejections to the upside). A pullback into the mid-1.82s/1.84s is the tactical zone to join the trend with defined risk.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price above an estimated 26-period baseline and well above the cloud after the 9/17–18 breakout. Lagging span likely above price, confirming a bullish regime. A flat Kijun in the 1.80–1.82 area often acts as a magnet/support on dips.

9. Volume/participation

• Volume spiked on 9/18 during the breakout; 9/19 cooled; 9/20 is healthy relative to weekend norms. The distribution suggests accumulation on dips, not distribution at highs.

10. Candlestick context

• 9/19 formed a bearish day with a lower close, but without breaking the new higher-low structure. 9/20 intraday prints a green session with higher lows, consistent with a bullish harami/inside-day continuation setup if the 1.90 lid breaks.

11. Pattern synthesis and scenarios

• Primary pattern: Bull flag/ascending triangle under 1.88–1.90. Repeated taps typically weaken resistance.
• Base case (~55–60%): Hold 1.82–1.85, reclaim pivot (1.856), break 1.90 → push into 1.92–1.96. Profit-taking likely near 1.95–1.96 on first test.
• Alternative (~35–40%): Another shakeout to 1.80–1.82 (50% retrace retest), then re-bid; as long as 1.78–1.80 holds on closing basis, the bull structure remains intact.
• Bear risk (~10%): Loss of 1.78 with momentum could extend toward 1.73 (61.8% retrace) before buyers reassert.

12. Risk management thought process

• Best R:R long entries are on controlled pullbacks into 1.83–1.85 with stops below 1.80 or 1.78 depending on risk appetite. Chasing through 1.90 is viable on momentum, but the first touch of 1.95 often sells off; hence dip-buying is preferred.
• Invalidation for the long thesis (tactical): Hourly close below ~1.82, daily close below ~1.80.

13. Synthesis to decision

• Momentum + trend alignment + defended 50% retrace + consolidation below resistance + constructive hourly higher lows support a Buy-the-dip plan.
• Target aligns with confluence at 1.95–1.96 (Fib 23.6%, round number, just below R2 path), balancing probability of fill and reward capture within 24h.

24-hour price outlook

• Likely path: Early pullback toward 1.84 ±0.01, regain pivot 1.856, press into 1.90–1.92 midday UTC, extend to 1.94–1.96 on a squeeze. Expect responsive selling near 1.95–1.96; partials advisable there.
• If the market instead loses 1.83 and fails to reclaim the pivot, expect a dip into 1.80–1.82 where buyers attempt another defense.

Actionable plan

• Decision: Buy (Long).
• Optimal open: 1.842 (limit buy on dip into micro-support and beneath daily pivot for positive skew).
• Take-profit: 1.948 (below 1.95–1.96 resistance to increase fill probability within 24h).