EIGEN Coiling Above 38% Fib: Bull Flag at Tenkan Support Sets Up a 1.88–1.90 Retest

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish. Expect a range-bound session with upward skew; base case is a bounce from 1.75–1.77 toward 1.85–1.90.
• Optimal tactic: Buy-the-dip into the 1.75–1.77 demand band with a take-profit just under the 1.90 liquidity shelf.
• Key invalidation: A decisive break and hold below ~1.724 (38.2% Fib of the Sep advance) would shift the 24h bias to neutral-to-bearish.

Market structure and trend

• Higher-timeframe (daily) trend: Up. Since 2025-09-01 (1.136 close), EIGEN has carved a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, culminating in a 2.087 intraday high on 2025-09-18. Pullback since then remains shallow relative to the prior impulse.
• Breakout and retest: The prior resistance zone at ~1.71–1.76 (breakout on 2025-09-13) is being retested and holding. Current price 1.767 is sitting exactly on that reclaimed shelf—classic support-after-resistance behavior.
• Intraday (hourly) structure for 2025-09-21: Lower highs from ~1.90 at 05:00–06:00 down into 1.77s, then stabilization with marginal higher lows (1.756 → 1.767) and reduced downside momentum—indicative of a bull flag/pennant type digestion after the 9/17–9/18 surge.

Key levels

• Resistance: 1.82–1.85 (flag top/intraday supply), 1.88–1.90 (liquidity cluster and prior failure), 1.96, 2.00–2.09 (swing high region).
• Support: 1.75–1.77 (today’s demand band), 1.724 (38.2% Fib), 1.71–1.715 (breakout retest), 1.66 (swing shelf), 1.61 (50% Fib), 1.50 (61.8% Fib).

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Likely high-50s to low-60s after cooling from overbought on 9/18. This is constructive—bullish regime but not overextended, leaving room for a fresh push.
• RSI (1h): Reset toward mid-40s/50, with mild positive divergence vs earlier hourly lows (loss of downside force as price tested 1.76). Supports bounce probability.
• MACD (daily): Above zero with recent histogram contraction (post-spike mean reversion). A re-expansion to the upside typically follows if price holds the breakout shelf.
• MACD (1h/4h): Flattening; histogram less negative over the last few hours—consistent with a base forming.

Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA ~1.53 (approx): Price at 1.77 is cleanly above—bullish.
• 50-day SMA ~1.40–1.45 (approx): Also well below price—bullish medium trend.
• Short-term EMAs (8/21) on intraday likely compressing just overhead (~1.79–1.82). A push through the 1.82 region should see momentum accelerate (flag breakout mechanics).

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• BB(20) daily: Midline near ~1.53; upper band likely ~1.88–1.92 after the expansion. Price has reverted from a band ride to inside the envelope; a second attempt to tag the upper band in the next session is plausible if support holds.
• ATR(14) daily estimate ~0.14–0.16. A 24h move of ~8–10% peak-to-trough is common in this regime. From 1.77, that places upside probes into 1.90 and downside tests into ~1.62–1.64 in a tail scenario, though base case downside should be cushioned around 1.72–1.75.

Fibonacci mapping (impulse from Sep low)

• Swing measured: 1.136 (2025-09-01) to 2.087 (2025-09-18). Range = 0.951.
• 38.2%: 2.087 − 0.363 ≈ 1.724 (currently holding above this level—bullish continuation zone).
• 50%: ~1.612 (deeper mean reversion pivot).
• 61.8%: ~1.499 (major downside magnet only if structure breaks). Holding above 38.2% typically precedes another attempt at the highs in trending markets.

Ichimoku (daily)

• Price above cloud; Kumo support far below.
• Tenkan-sen likely ~1.77–1.79 and Kijun-sen ~1.54–1.56 (approx). Price is testing Tenkan; bounces off Tenkan in uptrends are common. Kijun distance underscores trend strength.

Volume analytics

• 9/17–9/18 saw outsized volume on the up-leg (capitulation-buying/mark-up). Subsequent pullback days (9/19–9/20) came with reduced volume relative to the thrust—classic bullish volume spread: wide-range up, narrower-range down on lighter volume.
• Today’s cumulative volume remains high but shows diminishing net selling progress into 1.76s—suggestive of absorption rather than aggressive distribution.
• OBV (qualitative): Uptrend intact; no abrupt bearish divergence visible across the last week.

Pattern diagnostics

• Bull flag/descending channel since the 2.087 spike: Lower highs, controlled pullback, holding above 38.2% retrace. A breakout trigger sits near 1.82–1.85; measured move (pole length from ~1.56 to ~2.09) would project a retest of 1.90–1.95 initially if triggered within 24h.
• Liquidity/stop zones: Dense stops likely accumulate just above 1.88–1.90 (prior failure). A push through 1.90 could be swift toward ~1.95–1.96; however, the first attempt often stalls slightly below the round number.

Mean reversion vs momentum

• Mean reversion argues for bids near 1.75–1.77 (close to Tenkan and intraday demand); momentum argues for buying a break >1.82. Given the immediate context and desire to optimize entry, a limit buy in the demand band offers favorable R:R if the flag resolves upward within 24h.

Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Putative wave 1: ~1.14 → ~1.66; wave 2: pullback to ~1.53; wave 3: ~1.53 → 2.09; wave 4: ongoing flat/zigzag into ~1.75–1.72; wave 5 potential: resumption targeting 1.95–2.15 initially. The current zone is typical wave-4 support (38.2% retrace), favoring a wave-5 test of prior highs once consolidation ends.

Risk matrix (next 24h scenarios)

• Bull case (~55%): Hold 1.75–1.77, break 1.82, grind into 1.88–1.90, with spikes toward 1.92 possible.
• Base/neutral (~35%): Chop 1.74–1.84 without resolution; close near mid-range 1.80–1.84.
• Bear/tail (~10%): Lose 1.724 on momentum, accelerate to 1.70/1.66; deeper retrace toward 1.61 if broader market risk-off.

Confluence checklist

• Above 20/50-day MAs: Yes.
• Holding 38.2% Fib of major impulse: Yes.
• Intraday selling pressure waning near support: Yes.
• Volume profile: Thrust up on heavy volume; pullback on lighter volume: Yes.
• Ichimoku Tenkan test in uptrend: Yes.
• Pattern: Bull flag at prior breakout shelf: Yes. All point to a buy-the-dip setup with clear invalidation beneath ~1.72–1.724.

Trade plan (24h tactical)

• Entry: Staggered/limit near 1.755–1.765 (today’s demand and just above 38.2% Fib cushion). Using a single optimal print: 1.758.
• Profit target (take-profit/close): 1.885–1.900. Using a conservative liquidity-aware target just below the shelf: 1.888.
• Invalidation (not requested but prudent): A strong hourly close <1.724 would void the setup and favor waiting for 1.66–1.61.

Bottom line

• The multi-tool read (trend, Fib, Ichimoku, momentum, volume spread, and pattern work) favors a long from current demand with an objective to fade into the 1.88–1.90 supply within the next session. Risk is well-defined; reward-to-risk is attractive around 2:1–3:1 depending on stop placement.