EIGEN coiled under 1.90: Ascending triangle primed to launch toward 1.98–2.00

Market snapshot

• Ticker: EIGEN (EigenLayer)
• Current price: 1.8627
• Timeframe in view: Daily (Jun 30 – Sep 27) plus recent intraday/hourly (past ~24 hours)
• Context: Strong September rally to 2.087 (Sep 18), followed by a retracement and multi-day consolidation with higher lows. Price today reclaimed and is holding near a key Fibonacci level, pressing resistance below 1.90–1.92.

1. Price action and market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: Higher-high established on Sep 18 (2.087). Pullback made a higher low zone between 1.64–1.70 on Sep 25–26. Subsequent sessions show higher lows: 1.606 (Sep 24) → 1.649 (Sep 25) → 1.645 (Sep 26) → today intraday low 1.701. Uptrend structure intact; a break and hold above 1.90–1.92 likely prints a fresh swing higher high.
• Hourly structure (past 24h): Sequence of higher lows from ~1.71 → 1.73 → 1.75 → 1.80s; higher highs into 1.85–1.88. Consolidation just under 1.90 suggests an ascending triangle base with flat resistance at 1.897–1.915 and rising demand underneath.
• Candlesticks: Sep 26 daily candle = bullish with long lower shadow (buyers defended 1.65s). Today intraday: a series of bullish hourly candles with shallow pullbacks; minor rejection wicks near 1.88–1.90 (supply), but dips are being bought.

2. Key levels (horizontal S/R, pivots, round numbers)

• Resistance: 1.897–1.915 (intraday/local top cluster; Sep 21 high 1.915), 1.959 (Sep 19 high), 2.000 (psych), 2.087 (Sep 18 high).
• Support: 1.860 (38.2% Fib of the Sep 15 low → Sep 18 high leg; see below), 1.83–1.84 (intraday shelf), 1.80–1.79 (hourly base/VWAP area), 1.76–1.77 (daily pivot shelf), 1.70–1.71 (intraday low), 1.65 (swing demand tested on Sep 26).
• Classic daily pivots (derived from Sep 26 H/L/C: 1.8118/1.6450/1.7604):
  • Pivot P ≈ 1.739
  • R1 ≈ 1.833 (reclaimed)
  • R2 ≈ 1.906 (confluent with resistance band)
  • R3 ≈ 2.000 (psychological + pivot confluence)
  • S1 ≈ 1.666, S2 ≈ 1.572

3. Fibonacci analysis

• Swing used: Sep 15 low ~1.493 (approx) to Sep 18 high 2.087.
• 38.2% retracement: 1.860 (H − 0.382·(H−L)) → price is sitting exactly at this level and attempting to hold/reclaim; bullish if sustained.
• 50% retracement: ~1.790 (recent dips defended above/near this).
• 61.8% retracement: ~1.720 (the pullback low on Sep 25 approached this and then reversed higher—classic golden ratio reaction).
• Short-term measured move: Most recent hourly swing 1.701 → 1.897 (~0.196). 1.272–1.618 extensions project 1.951–1.966; aligns with R2–R3/upper range of next target zone.

4. Moving averages (trend filter)

• Daily SMA(20) ≈ 1.66 (est.). Price = 1.86 > SMA20 → bullish short-term trend.
• Daily SMA(50) ≈ 1.45–1.50 (est.). Price > SMA50 → bullish medium-term trend. The 20>50 slope implies an existing golden-cross regime from mid-September.
• Hourly EMAs: Price holding above 9/21/50-EMAs intraday (approx 1.84/1.80/1.77 respectively), indicating strong momentum and buy-the-dip behavior.

5. Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI(14) estimated in the low-to-mid 60s: positive momentum, not overbought → room to extend.
• Hourly RSI oscillating 60–70 with occasional spikes near 75 during pushes—typical of trend with momentum. No bearish divergence of consequence into the 1.88 test yet.
• MACD (daily): Histogram curling up after consolidation; signal cross likely flipped positive post Sep 26. On hourly, MACD above zero line and rising—confirms intraday uptrend.
• Stochastic (hourly): Hovering in overbought band but “can stay overbought” in trending phases; minor resets on dips to 1.85 have been constructive.

6. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 0.16–0.18. Implies a typical 24h swing of ~8–10%. From 1.86, that gives a probabilistic band ~1.70–2.04 for the next session; a 1-ATR upside test puts 1.98–2.03 in reach.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Mid ≈ 1.66; upper ≈ ~2.00 (est.). Price is riding from mid-band to upper band—classic continuation phase with potential tag of the upper band if 1.90–1.92 breaks.
• Keltner/Bollinger squeeze: Bands expanded on the Sep 17–18 breakout, then contracted during pullback; now re-expanding with price near the upper band—momentum expansion underway.

7. Volume, flow, and breadth proxies

• Volume: Elevated during the breakout (Sep 17–18), tapered during consolidation, and is rising again today (intraday figure already large). This is consistent with accumulation into resistance.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising with price since Sep 25; no distribution signature near 1.88–1.90 caps—constructive.
• MFI/CMF (qualitative): Improving; green inflows on up hours outpace outflows on pullbacks → healthy demand.
• VWAP (today/intraday): Price above session VWAP (est. ~1.82) and holding—bullish.

8. Ichimoku Cloud

• Daily: Price above Kumo; Tenkan > Kijun; Chikou span above price—bullish stack. Tenkan/Kijun estimated ~1.79/1.73; price holding above both.
• Hourly: Conversion and base lines sloping upward; price riding above cloud—supports trend continuation.

9. Other tools and patterns

• Ascending triangle on hourly: Flat resistance ~1.897–1.915 with rising swing lows (1.71 → 1.73 → 1.75 → 1.80+). Measured move target ≈ resistance (1.90) + height (~0.20) = ~2.10, which is near the prior 2.087 high (excellent confluence for a breakout path beyond 24h).
• Parabolic SAR (daily): Likely flipped below price after Sep 26—trend-following long bias.
• Donchian Channel (20): Upper bound near 2.087; price in upper half of the channel post-retracement, often a precursor to upper-band tests.
• Market profile (qualitative): Visible high-volume node around 1.75–1.80; thin air above 1.90 until ~1.96–2.00 → breakouts can run quickly.
• Elliott wave sketch: Wave 1 (Sep 17–18 spike), A-B-C correction into Sep 25–26, potential wave 3 initiation now. Targets of 1.95–2.00 fit a wave 3 sub-structure within the next 24h.

10. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (bullish continuation, ~60–65%): Dips toward 1.85 get bought; price pushes through 1.897–1.915 (R2 pivot ≈ 1.906). Momentum then tags 1.95–1.98; stretch objective to 2.00–2.02 if volume surges.
• Alternative (rangebound, ~25–30%): Multiple rejections 1.90–1.915 lead to oscillation 1.83–1.90 as the market builds more acceptance below resistance before attempting again.
• Bear case (breakdown, ~10–15%): A loss of 1.83 followed by VWAP failure drags price back to 1.80 and possibly 1.76–1.77. Structure would weaken only if daily closes back below ~1.79.

11. Trade plan logic

• Bias: Buy-the-dip/continuation.
• Optimal entry: A limit buy on a shallow pullback to the reclaimed 38.2% Fib/mini-shelf 1.85–1.86 aligns with both structure and risk control while not chasing a breakout wick. This also sits just above the intraday EMA cluster and session VWAP.
• Targets: First target 1.95–1.96; second target near 1.98–2.00 (upper band/pivot R3 confluence). For a single exit, 1.98 balances probability and reward within a 1-ATR advance.
• Invalidation (not requested but prudent): A decisive hourly close below ~1.79 would question the immediate breakout path and argue for stepping aside.

Conclusion

• Confluence of factors favors a bullish continuation attempt: price reclaiming the 38.2% Fib at 1.860, ascending triangle pressure beneath 1.90–1.915, rising momentum and volume, price above key MAs, and bullish cloud/MA structure. Expect a test and likely breach of 1.90 in the next 24 hours with follow-through toward 1.95–1.98; risk is a brief shakeout toward 1.83–1.80 if resistance rejects on the first attempt.