EIGEN: Failing the $0.90 Pivot — Short the Bounce, Aim for $0.825 Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Bearish with bounce risk. Prefer selling into strength near 0.895–0.905. Base-case path: retest 0.90 area, then continuation toward 0.85–0.83.
• Key levels: Resistance 0.895–0.905 (prior support/VWAP/pivot P), 0.915; Supports 0.872 (pivot S1), 0.855, 0.846 (20D Bollinger lower band est.), 0.825–0.820 (fib/extension cluster).
• Plan: Short the bounce at ~0.895 with take-profit ~0.825; if no bounce, momentum continuation likely below 0.859 toward 0.846/0.830.

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily structure: A sequence of lower highs and lower lows since early October peak (~1.99). Recent decisive breakdown below 1.00 and 0.95; parity lost and converted to resistance. Current price 0.871 is ~56% below the Oct high and ~20% below the 20D mean → dominant downtrend.
• Swing map: 10/26 local high 1.198 → 10/30 sharp sell-off to 0.949 → minor bounces 10/31–11/01 → fresh marginal low today 0.871. Structure remains bearish; rallies are sold.
• Intraday (hourly 11/2): Series of lower highs around 0.909 → 0.905 → failure and drop to 0.8585. Subsequent weak rebound to 0.873. This intraday distribution favors selling into 0.895–0.905.

2. Moving averages (trend filter)

• 5D SMA ≈ 0.946 (above price), 10D SMA ≈ 1.022, 20D SMA ≈ 1.086. Price < 5D < 10D < 20D → clean bearish alignment.
• Implication: Trend-following systems remain short-biased; reversion rallies back to the 5D/10D are sell zones.

3. Momentum (RSI, Stochastics, MACD)

• RSI(14) daily estimated ~29–32, reflecting persistent downside momentum yet not deeply extreme; room exists to press lower before strong mean-reversion.
• MACD (12,26,9) daily: Negative and below signal; histogram likely flattening slightly as the pace of decline slows, but no bullish cross evident. Interpreted as bearish momentum with a risk of brief counter-trend bounces.
• Stochastics: Embedded in oversold region with shallow recoveries; typically consistent with trend continuation until a decisive bullish divergence forms (not present yet).

4. Volatility and range (ATR, Bollinger)

• ATR(14) daily roughly ~0.09–0.12. After a sharp expansion on 10/30 (high vol down day), ranges have compressed but remain sufficient to traverse 5–10% in 24h.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): 20D SMA ≈ 1.086; estimated 20D σ ≈ 0.12 → lower band ≈ 0.846. Price 0.871 is riding the lower band zone, suggesting trend pressure; modest space remains to tag ~0.846 on continuation.
• Interpretation: Volatility compression after a down impulse often resolves with another leg in the direction of trend unless the mean is reclaimed; favors a sell-the-bounce approach.

5. Volume and participation (OBV/Distribution)

• Daily volumes elevated on down days (10/30, 10/31) and moderate on small up days → distributional footprint. OBV would be sloping down given the sequence of red closes. This supports the continuation bias.
• Intraday prints show selling spikes into 0.89–0.90 and heavier turnover on failures vs. advances. That 0.895–0.905 band is a supply zone.

6. Support/Resistance and pivots

• Classic daily pivots using 11/01 (H=0.935, L=0.886, C=0.8895):
  • Pivot P ≈ 0.9035
  • S1 ≈ 0.872 (essentially current price)
  • S2 ≈ 0.8545
  • R1 ≈ 0.921, R2 ≈ 0.9525
• Confluence zones:
  • 0.895–0.905: Pivot P, prior support turned resistance, intraday rejection cluster, approximate intraday VWAP area → preferred short entry.
  • 0.854–0.859: S2 and today’s intraday low region → first continuation target; a break opens 0.846 (BB lower) and then 0.830–0.820 (measured move/extension).

7. Pattern analysis

• Bear flag on intraday: Sharp drop from ~0.95 to ~0.87, followed by a rising/sideways drift into 0.90 region that failed. Measured move from flag height (~0.08–0.09) projects 0.87 − 0.08 ≈ 0.79 over an extended horizon; within 24h, a realistic step is toward 0.83–0.84.
• Descending channel on daily since 10/26: Upper boundary near 1.05–1.08 (far away), mid-channel around 0.95, lower boundary guiding toward mid-0.8s; we’re hugging the lower boundary, so bounces to mid-channel are likely to be sold.

8. Fibonacci and extensions

• From 10/26 high (1.198) to 10/31 low (0.922):
  • 38.2% = 1.031, 50% = 1.060, 61.8% = 1.089. All failed retests post-10/31. This confirms the breakdown and validates selling sub-0.90.
• Extension from 10/31 swing (0.922) after a small corrective pop to 1.099 on 10/29–10/30 cluster: 1.272–1.618 downside projections land ~0.85–0.82; aligns with S2, BB lower band, and historical intraday prints.

9. Ichimoku view (daily)

• Price far below a thickening bearish cloud; Tenkan < Kijun and both above price; Lagging span below price and cloud. Signal: Strong bearish. Any bounce into Tenkan (likely ~0.95–1.00) is a short in this framework; we’re well below, reinforcing sell-the-bounce.

10. Heikin-Ashi observation (daily)

• Predominantly red candles with small or no upper wicks post-10/30; trend persistence signal. Recent bodies are smaller, hinting at temporary momentum deceleration but not reversal.

11. VWAP and mean reversion (intraday)

• Approx intraday VWAP cluster around 0.89–0.90 given repeated time and volume near that band; current price below VWAP → intraday sellers in control. Expect mean reversion attempts to stall at VWAP, favoring entry there.

12. Risk framing and expected move (24h)

• With ATR ~0.10, an expected 1-day move from 0.871 is ~±0.10. Bearish skew suggests 0.871 − 0.05 to −0.10 range is achievable: 0.821–0.871.
• Scenario map:
  • Base case (55%): Bounce toward 0.895–0.905 (pivot/VWAP), fail, then drive to 0.855–0.846; extension tests 0.830–0.825.
  • Alt bearish continuation (25%): Weak bounce fails below 0.890; direct drift to 0.854 then 0.846.
  • Bull surprise (20%): Strong reclaim of 0.915; squeeze to 0.94–0.96. This would challenge the short thesis; risk control required above 0.915–0.922.

13. Confluence summary

• Trend: Down across all key MAs and Ichimoku.
• Momentum: Bearish; RSI sub-35, MACD negative.
• Volatility: Sufficient to reach mid-0.8s in 24h; BB lower band near 0.846 as magnet.
• Levels: 0.895–0.905 is heavy supply and matches pivot P; 0.854–0.846 is the next demand pocket; 0.820–0.825 is fib/measure extension.
• Net: High-probability asymmetric short is to sell a rally into 0.895–0.905 with targets into 0.83–0.85.

14. Trade plan (tactical)

• Position: Short (sell) on a planned bounce.
• Entry: 0.895 (limit) sits in the supply pocket and aligns with pivot P and intraday VWAP.
• Target (TP): 0.825 (captures S2→BB lower band→extension cluster; allows for slippage and front-run around 0.820).
• Risk (not a field but essential): Logical invalidation on decisive reclaim of 0.915–0.922 (pivot R1/last breakdown shelf). That yields a favorable R:R vs ~7–9c of risk for ~7c of reward to 0.825, and more if extension to 0.80 occurs.
• Contingency: If price fails to bounce and instead breaks 0.859, momentum entries are valid with the same 0.825 target; however, preferred plan is to sell the rip for better R:R.

15. 24-hour price path forecast

• Likely intraday sequence: Attempted push to 0.895–0.905 during lower-liquidity hours, fade back through 0.880–0.872, then probe 0.859–0.854. If sellers remain in control, an afternoon/evening extension tag ~0.846 with wicks toward 0.835–0.825 before a minor bounce into the close.

Decision rationale

• Multiple independent tools (trend MAs, Ichimoku, momentum, BB, pivots, pattern analysis, volume) converge on a bearish setup with a tactically attractive entry just beneath 0.90. The downside magnet zones (0.854/0.846/0.825) cluster tightly, providing clear targets and structure for profit-taking within 24 hours.