Buying the Retest: EIGEN Gears for a 0.82-to-0.88 Rotation Within 24 Hours

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for EigenLayer (EIGEN)

Timeframe coverage

• Higher timeframe: Daily bars from 2025-08-14 to 2025-11-09
• Lower timeframe: Hourly-ish data 2025-11-10 to 2025-11-11 04:48 UTC
• Current price: 0.82545

1. Market structure and trend context

• Macro swing: After peaking in mid/late September near 2.09 (09/18), price entered a persistent downtrend through late October. A capitulation-type event occurred 10/10 (intraday low 0.633 with a long lower wick), followed by continued distribution and a staircase decline into early November.
• Recent base attempt: Lows formed 11/03–11/06 in the 0.703–0.726 zone, followed by a relief rally to 0.868 on 11/09. Structure has shifted from lower-lows to a nascent series of higher lows (0.709 → 0.776/0.761 → 0.816–0.822 area intraday), implying an early-stage bottoming attempt.
• Near-term trend: Short-term uptrend within a broader downtrend. Price is below the 20-day moving average but above short-term means, consistent with a countertrend rally that is attempting to transition into a trend change.

2. Key levels (daily and intraday confluence)

• Supports:
  • 0.820–0.825: Immediate intraday pivot; seen multiple tests 11/10–11/11. Acts as neckline/retest zone.
  • 0.803–0.806: Minor shelf (11/08 close 0.8034; prior reactive level).
  • 0.776–0.780: 11/08 low; also aligns with a 38.2–50% pullback of the 0.709→0.868 leg.
  • 0.726–0.709: Strong base/SC area (11/03–11/06). Major invalidation for the short-term bottom.
• Resistances:
  • 0.844–0.852: Intraday supply band (multiple rejections on 11/10–11/11 hours).
  • 0.868–0.885: 61.8% retrace of 0.9485→0.726 drop; recent swing high cluster.
  • 0.90–0.95: Psychological and historical supply; includes 0.9485 (10/30 close) and prior breakdown shelf.
  • 0.98–1.05: Upper resistance if momentum extends; proximity to 20-day mid-band resistance zone.

3. Moving averages and mean-reversion context

• 5-day SMA (approx): ~0.798 (current price > short-term mean; bullish near-term bias).
• 10-day SMA (approx): ~0.826 (price near/just below; acting as immediate mean magnet).
• 20-day SMA (approx): ~0.947 (price below; medium-term downtrend still intact, implies rallies face supply into the 0.90–0.95 area).
• Read: Price sitting between short-term and medium-term means. A reversion to the 10-day SMA region (~0.826) is in progress; holding above 0.820 keeps the short-term bullish structure intact.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): Mid-to-high 40s to low 50s after a rebound from oversold in early November. This is a neutral-to-slightly-bullish posture, consistent with a fresh rally basing above new higher lows.
• Stochastic daily: Likely in the mid zone after cycling up; room to push higher if support holds.
• MACD daily: Histogram has turned up with a nascent bull cross risk; still below zero-line, meaning broader trend headwinds remain. Follow-through above 0.868–0.885 would reinforce the cross and momentum.

5. Volatility and range statistics

• ATR (daily) rough: 0.07–0.10. Current intraday ranges fit this regime. Expect typical 24h amplitude of ~8–12% from spot if volatility persists.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (approx): Mid-band near 0.95; lower band likely ~0.74–0.76; upper band ~1.14. Price is below the mid-band but well above the lower band, a constructive placement during early recovery phases. A move back to the mid-band requires breaking 0.90–0.95.
• Donchian 20-day: High ~1.231 (10/26), low ~0.703 (11/04). Price is in the lower-middle of the channel, with room to revert upward if demand sustains.

6. Fibonacci mapping

• From 10/30 close (0.9485) to 11/06 low (0.726):
  • 38.2%: ~0.810
  • 50%: ~0.837
  • 61.8%: ~0.863–0.864
  • Observed: 11/09 high 0.885 tested above 61.8%, then mean-reverted. Current 0.825–0.830 sits near the 38.2–50% band of the mini upswing, a classic pullback buy zone if trend continues.
• From 11/06 low (0.726) to 11/09 high (0.8857):
  • 38.2%: ~0.824
  • 50%: ~0.806
  • 61.8%: ~0.788
  • Observed: Price is testing the 38.2% (~0.824) now. That’s textbook bullish pullback support; a sustained break below opens 0.806 then 0.788.

7. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below cloud (primary trend down), but Tenkan likely crossed up over Kijun with price hovering near the Tenkan/Kijun region. Kijun resistance likely sits near 0.87–0.90 zone. A successful retest of Tenkan/Kijun followed by bounce is a common continuation signature toward the Kijun/Cloud underside.

8. Volume, OBV, and flow

• Volume expanded on up days (11/07, 11/09), contracted on minor pullbacks, suggesting early-stage accumulation behavior.
• OBV (qualitative) uptick since 11/06 implies net demand on rallies; minor intraday dips haven’t materially damaged the accumulation profile yet.
• MFI (qualitative): Likely recovering from sub-30 to mid-range; no obvious overbought signal currently.

9. Wyckoff lens and pattern recognition

• Accumulation schematic candidate:
  • SC/AR: 11/03–11/06 plunge to 0.703–0.726
  • ST/secondary tests: 11/08 low 0.776
  • SOS: 11/09 thrust to 0.868–0.886
  • LPS: Ongoing 0.820–0.830 retest
• Inverse Head & Shoulders flavor: LS ~0.76–0.78 (11/03–11/04), Head ~0.703–0.726 (11/04–11/06), RS ~0.776–0.80 (11/08). Neckline ~0.845–0.85; the 11/09 push above and current retest into 0.82–0.85 is constructive, provided 0.806–0.820 holds.

10. Intraday microstructure and VWAP

• 11/10–11/11 hours show repeated sells in 0.844–0.852 with higher-lows into ~0.822–0.826. This forms a compressing wedge-like structure. Break above 0.852 likely fuels a run to 0.868–0.885. Lose 0.820 convincingly and price likely revisits 0.806/0.788.
• Intraday VWAPs clustered near mid-0.84s on 11/10; current trade below them signals short-term supply, but this is common during a pullback to support in an early trend reversal.

11. ADX/trend strength (qualitative)

• ADX likely declining from prior bearish regime; DI+ improving but not dominant. This favors mean-reverting rallies with measured follow-through rather than explosive trend continuation unless a clear breakout occurs above 0.885–0.90.

12. Scenario planning for the next 24 hours

• Bullish continuation (55%): Hold 0.820–0.824, rotate up through 0.844–0.852, test 0.868–0.878. Momentum extension could briefly tag 0.885. Key tell: strong bid absorption <0.83 and an hourly close above 0.852.
• Range chop (25%): Ping-pong between 0.820 and 0.852 with whipsaws; net flat to slightly up close around 0.84–0.85.
• Bearish break (20%): Lose 0.820 on rising volume; flush to 0.806 first, possible spike to 0.788. This would delay reversal and set up a better long later.

13. Trading plan (short-term tactical)

• Bias: Buy the pullback at support with tight risk.
• Entry zone: 0.820 limit (±0.003), aligned with 38.2% pullback of 0.726→0.886 and intraday pivot shelf. If momentum flips, a secondary trigger is a breakout buy above 0.852, but the primary plan is a buy-the-dip.
• Target (24h): 0.878 (just shy of heavy 0.885 resistance and the 61.8% retracement cluster). This optimizes the probability of fill vs front-running the supply band.
• Protective stop (not part of the requested fields but essential): 0.798 (below 50% retrace of the mini upswing and under the 0.803 shelf). Risk ~0.022 per unit. Reward ~0.058 per unit → R:R ~2.6.
• Invalidation: A decisive daily close below 0.788 negates the immediate bullish setup and raises odds of a retest of 0.726–0.709.

14. Confluence summary

• Structural: Higher lows since 11/06; retest of breakout area.
• Fib: Price parked at 38.2% of 0.726→0.886 leg and near 50% of 0.9485→0.726 retrace pivot region.
• Momentum: MACD turning up; RSI neutral-to-positive; no overbought conditions.
• Volume: Accumulation hints on up days; pullback on lighter participation.
• Risk: Still below the 20-day SMA/Cloud, thus overhead supply exists; plan targets the lower resistance cluster for a tactical exit.

Bottom line forecast (next 24h)

• Expect stabilization above 0.820 followed by an attempt to rotate into 0.844–0.852 and a probe toward 0.868–0.878. A break below 0.820 would likely test 0.806/0.788 before any renewed attempt higher.

Decision

• Action: Buy (Long position)
• Optimal open price: 0.820 (limit buy on dip)
• Take-profit (close price): 0.878
• Note: If price accelerates before filling the dip, a momentum alternative is a stop-entry above 0.852 with a similar target band (0.875–0.885), but the primary plan optimizes R:R by buying the retest.