EOS: Post-Capitulation Squeeze—Buy the Pullback Before the Next Leg Higher

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish continuation with a likely dip-and-rip path. Expect a pullback toward 0.321–0.322 (retest zone), then a push into 0.338–0.346 if 0.332 breaks and holds. Key overhang remains the 61.8% retracement cluster around current price (0.329–0.330), so first attempt may stall before continuation.
• Plan: Buy the pullback into 0.321–0.322 (limit), target 0.346. Invalidation for active risk management sits below 0.312–0.314 (hourly swing/MA cluster).

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Higher time frame (daily): EOS remains in a dominant downtrend from July highs ~0.61–0.64 to the 10/10 capitulation low 0.214. The 20–50D averages are likely above price (bearish slope), meaning the bounce is countertrend at the daily scale.
• Post-capitulation sequence: 10/10 Selling Climax (SC) to 0.214, 10/11 stabilization/attempted bounce (close 0.2741), 10/12 Automatic Rally (AR) to 0.3089 close, 10/13 intraday continuation to 0.332 highs. Structure resembles Wyckoff accumulation beginnings (SC → AR → ST → SOS), but still early and vulnerable to shakeouts.
• Intraday (hourly): Clear series of higher highs/higher lows on 10/13, breakout from 0.311–0.316 consolidation, expansion to 0.328–0.332. Uptrend on 1h is intact.

2. Key levels (confluence)

• Resistance: • 0.329–0.332: 61.8% retrace of 10/8 high (0.4006) → 10/10 low (0.2140) is ~0.3293. Today’s high 0.332 aligns; first supply wall. • 0.338–0.340: Daily pivot R2 (calc from 10/12) at ~0.3383; round number confluence; next upside gate. • 0.346–0.352: Extension target if momentum persists; pre-gap fill area before heavier daily supply (0.36–0.41).
• Support: • 0.321–0.322: 50% retrace of today’s 0.311→0.332 impulse; intraday breakout retest zone and VWAP/MA cluster area. • 0.315–0.316: Hourly congestion shelf; likely 20-period SMA region on 1h; near-term “line in the sand” for the short-term trend. • 0.309–0.312: 10/13 European session basing; near anchored VWAP from the 10/13 impulse and just above daily AR close 0.3089.

3. Fibonacci analysis

• 10/8 high 0.4006 to 10/10 low 0.2140: • 38.2% = ~0.285 • 50% = ~0.307 • 61.8% = ~0.3293 (current). Price is testing the golden-ratio wall; often the first attempt stalls, then either consolidates or marginally pulls back before a second attempt.
• Today’s intraday leg 0.311→0.332: • 38.2% = ~0.3243 • 50% = ~0.3215 • 61.8% = ~0.3187. Optimal pullback buy sits in 0.321±0.0015.

4. Pivot points (classic, from 10/12 H/L/C = 0.3127/0.2723/0.3089)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.2980, R1 ≈ 0.3236, R2 ≈ 0.3383, R3 ≈ 0.3640. Price is above R1, approaching R2; typical behavior is either a consolidation under R2 or a brief rejection before a second test. R2 matches our next resistance band.

5. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (1h): Likely mid-to-high 60s post-breakout; trending but approaching near-term overbought. Expect a shallow pullback to reset toward 50–55 RSI (aligns with 0.321–0.322) before continuation.
• RSI (daily): Recovering from oversold after the crash; likely in the 40s. Room remains to the upside before daily overbought conditions.
• MACD (1h): Bullish with widening histogram earlier; histogram now flattening near resistance, signaling consolidation/pullback risk before next push.
• Stochastics (1h): Likely elevated; cross-down from overbought would support the preferred buy-the-dip plan.

6. Volatility, bands, and ranges

• ATR (daily): Expanded materially on 10/10; cooling but still elevated. A 24h range of ~0.02–0.04 is plausible from here, which accommodates a move to 0.338–0.346.
• Bollinger Bands (1h): Price rode the upper band into 0.332; band width expanding (trend-confirming) but often invites mean reversion to the mid-band (approx 0.315–0.317). Expect a drift/dip toward 0.321 first, not necessarily full mean reversion on strong trends.

7. Moving averages and trend filters

• 1h: Price above 20/50 EMA; EMAs positively sloped; bullish short-term regime. A pullback into the 20–50 EMA zone (0.315–0.322) is healthy and buyable while structure holds.
• Daily: Price still well below falling 50/200D MAs (bearish higher timeframe). Treat current move as a tactical bounce within a larger downtrend until 0.36–0.41 is reclaimed on volume.

8. Volume, market profile, and VWAPs

• Volume trend: 10/10 capitulation volume peak; 10/12–10/13 bounce maintained healthy activity, with intraday expansion during the 18–19:00 surge. Breakouts backed by rising volume increase odds of continuation after pullbacks.
• Intraday HVNs: 0.311–0.316 built a thick node earlier today; expect strong dip-demand there. Thin air above 0.332 into 0.338 suggests fast moves if 0.332 breaks/holds.
• Anchored VWAPs (approximate): • From 10/10 low (0.214): AVWAP likely climbs in the 0.30–0.31 zone; supportive on dips. • From 10/8–10/9 highs: AVWAP sits well above current, reinforcing the longer-term bearish overhang but not controlling intraday flow.

9. Ichimoku perspective (1h)

• Price is above the cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; lagging span likely above price. Kijun sits near 0.315–0.317; pullbacks to Kijun often mark continuation entries in trends.

10. Candles and patterns

• Daily: Two consecutive green closes post-crash (10/11, 10/12), with 10/13 currently printing a third. Classic post-capitulation bounce behavior.
• Hourly: Series of small-bodied candles near 0.328–0.332 with upper wicks indicates supply at the 61.8% retracement—consistent with the expectation of a shallow pullback before continuation.

11. Wyckoff framing

• SC (0.214) → AR (0.3089 close) → ST (0.304–0.306 retests early 10/13) → SOS attempt (0.332). Phase D characteristics emerge if price holds above 0.311–0.315 on any pullback and then pushes through 0.332 toward 0.338–0.346.

12. Elliott Wave (tactical intraday count)

• From ~0.311 base: Wave 1 to ~0.316, Wave 2 shallow, Wave 3 extended to ~0.332, now expecting Wave 4 pullback to ~0.321–0.322, and a Wave 5 attempt into 0.336–0.340 (with overshoot potential to 0.346 on momentum/extension).

13. Gap and mean reversion context

• 10/10 gap-down remains largely unfilled. Partial fill pressure persists up to ~0.35–0.36. Mean-reversion tailwind supports the bounce until major supply zones reassert.

14. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Pullback to 0.321–0.322, hold above 0.315, then breakout through 0.332 toward 0.338–0.346. Close near 0.34.
• Bearish alt (25%): Failure to hold 0.315 leads to a deeper mean-revert to 0.309–0.312 (AR close/AVWAP area). If lost, slide to pivot P ~0.298 is possible, though less likely without a broader market risk-off.
• Bullish squeeze (15%): Immediate reclaim above 0.332 without meaningful pullback, quick run to R2 0.338 and extension to ~0.346. In this case, a breakout-pullback entry near 0.333–0.334 would be a secondary plan.

15. Risk management and execution notes

• Optimal entry: 0.321–0.322 (limit) aligning with 50% retrace of the intraday leg and prior breakout base; minimizes slippage and improves R:R.
• Invalidation (not part of order fields but crucial): A firm hourly close below 0.312–0.314 suggests momentum failure; reassess/exit.
• Profit-taking: Stagger 0.338 (R2) and 0.346 (extension/upper band). For this single-target requirement, 0.346 balances ambition and probability.

Conclusion and call

• Despite the macro downtrend, post-capitulation dynamics, intraday trend strength, volume-backed breakout, and multiple-tool confluence favor a Buy-the-dip tactic. The 0.329–0.332 61.8% wall argues for patience on entry; the 0.321–0.322 retest is attractive. Targeting 0.346 over 24h is reasonable given ATR and resistance ladder.