EOS coils at Fibonacci-pivot confluence: betting on a squeeze pop toward 0.30 within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: mildly bullish mean-reversion from a compressed base
• Setup: long on a pullback into 0.284–0.286 support targeting a test of 0.296–0.302 resistance band
• Rationale: daily oversold momentum, multi-tool confluence at 0.285–0.287, hourly volatility compression with improving microstructure, and declining-volume pullback after the post-crash rebound

1. Price structure and trend context

• Higher time frame (daily): After a sharp shock on 2025-10-10 (close ~0.264), EOS staged a reflex rally to ~0.332 on 10-13, followed by a controlled pullback with sequential lower highs into today’s 0.286 area. Structure resembles an ABC correction of the 10-10 to 10-13 impulse, with today sitting near a potential C-wave termination.
• Intermediate supports: 0.282–0.283 (recent intraday floor), 0.273 (50% retrace of the 0.214→0.332 advance), 0.264 (crash close and high-volume node). Resistance: 0.290 (intraday cap), 0.292–0.302 (pivot R1 and R2 cluster), 0.308–0.309 (post-bounce shelf), 0.315–0.316, 0.328–0.332 (swing high supply).
• Channeling: Since 10-13, price respects a gentle descending channel; today trades near its lower boundary, favoring a reflex pop toward mid-channel (~0.296–0.300) if support holds.

2. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): estimated ~28–30 as of 10-17 close, rising slightly today; firmly oversold and consistent with a pending mean-reversion bounce.
• Hourly RSI(14): hovering around neutral to slightly positive (mid-40s to low-50s) with higher lows intraday, indicating bullish divergence versus flat price.
• Stochastics (daily): embedded low readings, curling up; typical for early-stage bounces post selloff.
• MACD (daily): below zero, but histogram contraction vs earlier in the week suggests bearish momentum is waning; on 1h, lines flatten with potential cross on a push above 0.289–0.290.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• SMA5 ≈ 0.303, SMA10 ≈ 0.315, SMA20 ≈ 0.361. Price is below all three, so higher time frame trend remains down, but the distance to SMA5/10 provides mean reversion headroom for a 3–5% bounce without violating the broader downtrend.
• EMA alignment: short EMAs below long EMAs (bearish), but short distance to fast EMAs means small uptick can flip hourly momentum regime.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): price has ridden the lower band since 10-15; today sits near the band edge, a classic bounce zone in oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands (1h): visible squeeze; intraday range has compressed to roughly 0.282–0.290 (~2.8%). Squeezes frequently precede directional expansion; with daily momentum oversold, odds favor an upside release first toward 0.295–0.300.
• ATR(14) daily elevated post-crash then decaying; the current contraction increases the probability of a volatility expansion session soon.

5. Volume, OBV, VWAP and order flow cues

• Volume profile: the decline from 10-14 to 10-17 occurred on decreasing volume compared to the 10-10 to 10-13 rebound. That is textbook corrective behavior within a larger reflex recovery.
• OBV bias: up into 10-13, then a shallow pullback; no aggressive distribution signature. Suggests sellers are not in strong control at these levels.
• Anchored VWAP from 10-10 shock: likely in the 0.294–0.299 zone given subsequent trading; that aligns with our 24h target band and should be the first serious supply test.

6. Fibonacci and pivots

• Swing low 0.213985 (10-10) to swing high 0.332377 (10-13): current 0.286–0.287 is the 38.2% retracement from the top, a frequent reaction level. Deeper supports sit at 0.273 (50%) and 0.259 (61.8%).
• Floor trader pivots using 10-17: P ≈ 0.2820, R1 ≈ 0.2924, R2 ≈ 0.3022, S1 ≈ 0.2723. Price is above P and below R1, implying probabilistic magnetism toward R1 first, then R2 if momentum improves.

7. Ichimoku overview

• Daily: price below Tenkan/Kijun and under cloud, maintaining macro-bearish tone; however Tenkan is flattening, often a precursor to a pause and reversion to the mean.
• Hourly: price oscillates around Tenkan and Kijun; a hold above Kijun near 0.286–0.287 supports a drift to 0.290–0.293 and an initial cloud test.

8. Wyckoff and market structure read

• Post-shock Automatic Rally into 0.328 followed by Secondary Test behavior near 0.286. The 0.282–0.287 shelf functions as preliminary support. A push to 0.296–0.300 would fit a Phase B probe toward the top of the developing range.

9. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• The 10-10 to 10-13 rally can be labeled wave 1 or A; the subsequent pullback likely a 3-wave correction. With today near a potential C low, the next 24h often favors a counter-trend pop to test prior micro-supply (0.296–0.302).

10. Candlesticks and intraday microstructure

• Daily: small-bodied candles the last two sessions with lower wicks, reflecting demand emergence near 0.282–0.285.
• Hourly: repeated failures to break 0.283 decisively and consistent rejection wicks near 0.290–0.291; this carves a tight range suggesting energy build-up for an attempt through 0.290 on a third or fourth test.

11. Statistical and scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (55–60%): hold 0.284–0.286 and expand to 0.295–0.300, probing pivot R1 then R2. Intraday target cluster: 0.296, 0.299–0.300.
• Range case (25–30%): oscillate 0.282–0.292, with failed breakout attempts, ending near 0.290.
• Bear case (10–15%): lose 0.282 on volume, sweep 0.279–0.277, and possibly tag 0.273 (50% retrace) before stabilizing.

12. Confluence summary at the planned entry

• Support stack: 0.284–0.286 shelf, daily lower Bollinger vicinity, pivot P ≈ 0.282, hourly Kijun/Tenkan zone, micro demand from repeated tests.
• Target stack: 0.296–0.302 includes anchored VWAP band, pivot R1/R2, mid-channel resistance, and prior intraday supply.
• Momentum: daily oversold and hourly stabilizing, favoring a relief bounce.

Trade plan and risk parameters (tactical 24h swing)

• Direction: Buy (long position)
• Optimal entry: buy limit 0.2858 (within the 0.284–0.286 demand pocket); acceptable market entry 0.2865 if momentum accelerates.
• Take-profit objective: 0.2995 to front-run the 0.300–0.302 supply zone.
• Suggested protective stop (not part of requested outputs): 0.2794 (below shelf and below today’s micro swing), yielding roughly 2.1R to TP.
• Invalidation: sustained hourly close below 0.282 with expanding volume would postpone the long and shift focus to 0.277 then 0.273.

Timing and execution notes

• If price pushes through 0.290 with rising volume, pullbacks to 0.288–0.289 become attractive secondary entries for a momentum continuation into 0.296–0.300.
• If first attempt over 0.290 fails, expect a shakeout to 0.284–0.285 before the next attempt; maintain patience for the limit fill rather than chasing into resistance.

Bottom line

• The higher time frame remains bearish, but the immediate setup is a high-confluence, short-duration long from 0.284–0.286 aiming for 0.296–0.300. Oversold daily RSI, hourly volatility compression, and pivot/Fibonacci alignment support a tactical buy with defined risk. Probability-weighted expectation favors an upside test of 0.295–0.300 within the next 24 hours.