EOS coiled at 0.29: Dip-to-rip setup into the 0.298–0.300 liquidity pocket

Executive summary up front

• Instrument: EOS/USD
• Now: 0.29242396 (as of 2025-10-19 20:58 UTC)
• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bullish continuation toward 0.298–0.300 after a shallow dip; broader daily trend still down/neutral.
• Plan: Buy the dip into 0.2910–0.2890, target the 0.298–0.300 liquidity pocket; invalidate below 0.286.

1. Multi-timeframe market structure and trend context

• Higher time frame (daily)
  • From July to early Oct: persistent downtrend from ~0.60 to sub-0.30, with a capitulation day on Oct 10 (high 0.3915 → low 0.2140 → close 0.2641, extreme range/volume), followed by a reflex bounce to 0.332 on Oct 13 and then a grind lower.
  • Current daily closes last 8 sessions: 0.4030, 0.3869, 0.2641, 0.2741, 0.3089, 0.3280, 0.3159, 0.2986, 0.2888, 0.2827, 0.2859, 0.2924 (today intraday). Sequence shows: post-crash bounce (0.328), then lower highs/lows into 0.282–0.289 area, now modest uptick. Broader regime: bear market rally attempting to base.
  • Key daily S/R clusters:
    • Resistance: 0.2985–0.3000 (pivot R3 cluster and round number), 0.3020–0.3090 (50%/61.8% retrace of 0.332→0.2717 swing), 0.315–0.316 (daily supply), 0.328–0.332 (post-bounce high/major supply).
    • Support: 0.289–0.290 (0.618 retrace confluence from 0.264→0.332 rally), 0.285–0.286 (prior day pivot), 0.2816 (S1 and today’s intraday pivot low), 0.277–0.278 (S2), 0.2717 (Oct 17 low), 0.264 (Oct 10 close), 0.214 (capitulation extreme).
• Intraday (hourly today)
  • Range: 0.2816 → 0.2944. Structure: higher low at 0.2816 vs prior daily swing low 0.2717; a series of higher intraday lows since 06:00 UTC and a test of local resistance at 0.2942–0.2944 (tapped ~R2).
  • Price has been riding the upper half of today’s distribution since ~10:00 UTC, indicating mild intraday uptrend with consolidation under resistance.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily moving averages (approx):
  • 20-D SMA ≈ 0.31–0.32 (current price below) → medium-term trend still down.
  • 50-D SMA likely ~0.40–0.42 (far above) → long-term trend down.
  • Insight: Being below the 20/50-D MAs biases the daily toward rallies being sold, but proximity to post-crash basing support (0.285–0.290) increases odds of tactical mean-reversion bounces.
• Hourly EMAs (qualitative from price action):
  • Price reclaimed and is holding above short-term intraday EMAs (e.g., 9/21 EMA equivalents), consistent with the higher-low structure and positive intraday bias.

3. Momentum and overbought/oversold

• Daily RSI(14) (approx): low-to-mid 40s after crash and bounce → not oversold, room both ways, but no bearish exhaustion either.
• Hourly RSI(14): hovering mid-50s to low-60s through the US session as price hugged the upper half of the intraday range → mild bullish momentum without overbought extremes.
• Stochastics (hourly): likely in buy territory but not pinned; supports a push through resistance if volume comes in.

4. MACD

• Daily MACD: below zero after prolonged downtrend; histogram contraction suggests downside momentum faded post-crash, but no confirmed bullish daily cross yet.
• Hourly MACD: above signal and above zero (inferred from the steady grind higher), histogram slightly positive → favors a continuation attempt toward 0.295–0.299 before momentum wanes.

5. Volatility and ATR

• Daily ATR(14) spiked on Oct 10, now compressing; current realized daily range in recent days ~0.010–0.020.
• Today’s intraday range ~0.0128 already; a 24h expansion to ~0.015–0.018 is reasonable. From 0.291, +0.008 implies 0.299 as a plausible upside excursion, aligning with R3/round number.

6. Bollinger Bands

• Daily BB (20,2) qualitative: price near lower-mid band after the crash; bands are wider than pre-crash but beginning to pinch → fertile ground for a measured move, not a collapse.
• Hourly BB: price spent multiple hours near/at the upper band 0.293–0.294, then paused → this “walk-the-band” behavior supports a controlled grind higher with shallow pullbacks. A brief mean reversion to the middle band (~0.290–0.291) would be a high-probability dip to buy for another test of the upper band at 0.295–0.298.

7. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: price below cloud → primary trend down.
• Hourly: conversion (Tenkan) likely > base (Kijun); price near or above a thin cloud with a possible future twist → short-term bullish bias until price loses Kijun (~0.289–0.291 area likely).

8. Volume, OBV, participation

• Daily volume: capitulation spike on Oct 10, then decaying volumes on the drift lower; decline on declining volume → classic post-capitulation digestion.
• Intraday volume today: modest during pushes into 0.293–0.294; sufficient to maintain trend, not yet the “exhaustion” profile. A small volume expansion above 0.2945 could run stops into 0.298–0.300.
• OBV (qualitative): stabilizing; no fresh distribution signal today.

9. Fibonacci confluences

• Swing A: 0.332 (Oct 13 high) → 0.2717 (Oct 17 low)
  • 38.2%: 0.2940, 50%: 0.3019, 61.8%: 0.3099.
  • Current price is sitting just under 38.2% (0.2940), so a clean break/retest opens 0.302 (50%) then 0.310 (61.8%).
• Swing B: 0.264 (Oct 10 close/major pivot) → 0.332 (Oct 13 high)
  • 61.8% retrace: 0.2899–0.2900 → today’s bid zone. This is a powerful confluence with intraday mid and prior support.
• Net: Support at 0.289–0.290 (fib 61.8% of the rally + hourly mid) and resistance at 0.294–0.302 (fib 38.2–50% of the downswing) create a tradable corridor.

10. Classical floor pivots (using Oct 18 H/L/C: H=0.290147, L=0.281634, C=0.285874)

• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 = 0.285885
• R1 = 2P − L = 0.290136
• S1 = 2P − H = 0.281623
• R2 = P + (H − L) = 0.294398
• S2 = P − (H − L) = 0.277372
• R3 = H + 2(P − L) = 0.298649
• S3 = L − 2(H − P) = 0.273110
• Today’s tape: price traded above P and R1 and tagged R2 (0.2944). The next logical magnet if R2 breaks is R3 at ~0.2986, which aligns with ATR and round-number 0.300 liquidity.

11. Candles and patterns

• Oct 10 daily: capitulation “long lower shadow” type body; reflexive buyers emerged. Not a textbook hammer due to close location, but capitulation dynamics apply.
• Subsequent days: bounce to 0.332 then pullback on contracting range/body size → corrective channel. Today’s intraday has small-bodied hours with upper-band walk → constructive for a squeeze through nearby resistance.
• No fresh bearish reversal prints at the hourly level at 0.294; instead, repeated probes suggest supply is thinning just above.

12. Liquidity and stop map

• Above: 0.2944–0.2950 (today’s high/R2) likely holds clustered shorts’ stops; a tick through should accelerate to 0.297–0.299 fast.
• Round number 0.300 has stop orders and TP clustering; if flow is thin, first test could reject, but with ATR room, tagging 0.299–0.300 within 24h is plausible.
• Below: 0.2910–0.2890 has resting bids (fib + mid-BB + Kijun equivalent); sub-0.286 likely triggers a local liquidation back to 0.282 (S1) or 0.277 (S2), which defines invalidation for longs.

13. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Shallow dip to 0.291–0.289, then breakout over 0.2944 toward 0.298–0.300; close near 0.297–0.299.
• Bearish alternative (25%): Failure at 0.294, slip under 0.289, test 0.286 and possibly 0.282 (S1). Daily bear trend reasserts for a day; bounce later.
• Low-probability extension (20%): Clean break, momentum carry into 0.302–0.305 (50% fib of 0.332→0.2717) on stop run; would require a modest volume expansion during US evening/Asia open.

14. Risk management and trade design

• Rationale for long:
  • Multi-signal confluence: hourly uptrend, fib 61.8% support at 0.289–0.290, floor pivot R3 magnet at 0.2986, ATR allowing a 0.007–0.009 advance, and liquidity above 0.2944.
  • Asymmetry: Risk below 0.286 is ~0.003–0.005 from optimal entry; reward to 0.298–0.300 is ~0.007–0.010. R:R ≥ 1:2.
• Entry tactics:
  • Primary: Buy pullback at 0.2910 (limit), close to hourly mid-band/VWAP zone, capturing better R:R while maintaining high fill probability given frequent micro-dips.
  • If price breaks 0.2945 before filling: momentum entry is valid toward 0.298–0.300, but a different order would be required (not reflected in the single-price output); manage with tighter stop due to diminished R:R.
• Exit/targets:
  • TP cluster: 0.2986 (R3) → 0.2990–0.3000 (round/psychological). I set 0.2990 as the base TP to avoid queue congestion at 0.3000.
  • Stop (for reference): 0.2859–0.2862 (below pivot and recent micro swing); not part of the required output, but essential for risk control.

15. Indicator roll-up and conclusion

• Trend filters (daily MAs) = bearish; momentum (hourly RSI/MACD) = bullish; structure (higher lows intraday) = bullish; volatility/ATR = accommodates a push to 0.299; pivots/Fibs = strong confluence: support 0.289–0.291 vs resistance 0.294–0.299; volume = sufficient for grind higher, not showing distribution.
• Net: Favor a tactical long for the next 24 hours aiming at 0.299, entered on a small dip to enhance R:R.

24-hour price path projection

• Probable path: 0.291 dip → 0.294 breakout → 0.298 tag → stalls 0.299; intraday backfill to 0.296–0.297 late session.
• Max adverse excursion expected (base case): ~0.286–0.287 if dip extends; below that, scenario flips to the bearish alternative.

Actionable decision

• Position: Buy (long)
• Open (limit): 0.2910
• Close (take profit): 0.2990
• Invalidation (advisory stop): ~0.2860
• Notes: If breakout triggers before pullback, watch for momentum continuation entries above 0.2945 with tighter risk, but that’s outside the single-price mandate here.