EOS coils beneath 0.296: fading the lid for a dip toward 0.286

Summary snapshot

• Instrument: EOS/USD
• Current price: 0.29427
• Time context: Weekend, low-liquidity coil beneath nearby resistance (0.295–0.296). Hourly range past 24h ~0.2907–0.2946; very tight.
• Bias: Short-term range with slight bearish skew within a broader downtrend. Fade rallies into 0.295–0.298 preferred.

1. Trend and moving averages (multi-timeframe)

• Long-term (200D): Far above price (well north of 0.50). Structural bear market context remains intact.
• Intermediate (50D): Estimated in the mid-0.40s due to summer prices around ~0.48–0.50; price deeply below → bearish regime.
• Short-term (20D SMA): Approx ~0.313 (computed from 20 closes Oct 6–25). Price 0.294 is below 20SMA → short-term downtrend still active; mean-reversion magnet at 0.313 remains overhead.
• Slope: 20SMA sloping down since mid-October; 50SMA steeply down; bearish alignment persists.

2. Momentum (RSI, Stoch, MACD)

• Daily RSI: Likely in low-to-mid 40s after the Oct 10 crash and weak bounce → sub-50 momentum regime (bearish to neutral). No strong bullish divergence on daily closes.
• Hourly RSI: Hovering ~48–52 across the coil; micro uptick failed to clear resistance → neutral with slight downside risk in a range.
• Daily MACD: Below zero; histogram has been contracting (less negative) since Oct 22–24 as price stabilized, but no bullish cross above zero. This often precedes chop or a lower-high before resumption lower.
• Hourly MACD: Small flips around the zero line consistent with a squeeze; no impulse confirmation.
• Stochastics (H1/H4): Cycling mid-band without trend capture → range conditions; sells at upper band favored.

3. Volatility (ATR, Bollinger)

• Daily ATR(14): Roughly ~0.015–0.018 after the crash; last few sessions narrowing toward ~0.010–0.013.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Mid-band ~0.313; lower band estimated high-0.27s; upper band mid-0.35s. Price is below mid-band and above lower band → within the lower half of the envelope.
• Hourly bands: Tight compression (“Bollinger squeeze”), signaling upcoming expansion. In bear regimes, expansions from squeezes often resolve down unless a clean level is reclaimed.

4. Market structure and key levels

• Supports: 0.290–0.291 (micro), 0.287–0.289 (intraday shelf), 0.283 (S2), 0.2777 (Oct 22 low), 0.2641 (Oct 10 crash low).
• Resistances: 0.295–0.296 (yesterday high 0.29564 cap), 0.298–0.301 (Fibo 50% and daily pivot R1/R2 zone), 0.306 (Fibo 61.8%), 0.309–0.316 (prior bounce supply and Kijun estimate), 0.328–0.332 (swing high post-crash).
• Structure: Lower-highs since Oct 13. Last 3 sessions forming a tight range under resistance → classic place to fade into supply unless break/hold above 0.296–0.298.

5. Pivot levels (from 10/24 H/L/C: 0.29564/0.28663/0.29455)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.29228
• R1 ≈ 0.29792
• R2 ≈ 0.30129
• S1 ≈ 0.28891
• S2 ≈ 0.28326 Current price is slightly above P and below R1; fading the move toward R1 is attractive, targeting S1.

6. Fibonacci mapping (post-crash leg)

• Swing low (Oct 10): 0.26415
• Swing high (Oct 13): 0.33238
• 38.2%: ~0.2902 (current micro support)
• 50%: ~0.2983 (overhead resistance cluster)
• 61.8%: ~0.3063 (stronger resistance) Price sits between 38.2% and 50% retracements, respecting the 50% as a lid. Favor a push back to 38.2% or below when 50% rejects.

7. Ichimoku (daily approximation)

• Price below cloud; cloud is overhead and thick → bearish.
• Tenkan (9): ~0.291–0.295 range; price near Tenkan.
• Kijun (26): ~0.315; significant overhead magnet/resistance.
• Chikou lagging below price and cloud → trend context bearish. Near-term: price around Tenkan with rejection below Kijun tends to fade lower.

8. Anchored VWAP (event-based)

• AVWAP from Oct 10 crash day likely sits near ~0.300–0.305 given heavy bounce volume. Price remains below anchored VWAP → sellers control the post-event auction; rallies to AVWAP often fade on first test.

9. Candlestick/price action

• Daily: Small-bodied candles the last sessions with upper wicks into 0.295–0.296; indecision under resistance. No bullish engulfing or strong reversal print.
• Hourly: Multiple attempts to push 0.2946–0.2952 stall; small ranges and occasional upper shadows → supply stepping in at the same zone repeatedly.
• Micro market structure: Higher lows are shallow, suggesting supply absorption overhead is working.

10. Volume and participation

• Post-crash participation has faded into the weekend; typical behavior is range contraction and fade-the-extremes until a catalyst returns.
• On-balance flow hasn’t meaningfully rebuilt; no accumulation signature.

11. Statistical/Regime view

• Regime: Bearish with low-volatility compression.
• Expectation next 24h: 55% range (0.289–0.299), 30% downside expansion to 0.283–0.287, 15% upside breakout to tag 0.301–0.305. Bias: modest downside skew due to higher-timeframe trend and AVWAP overhead.

12. Risk framing and R:R

• Short thesis: Sell the R1/previous high lid 0.295–0.296 with target back to S1 0.289 and possibly S2 extension ~0.283 if expansion.
• Invalidation: Sustained H1 close above 0.298 and especially daily close >0.301 (R2/Fibo 50%) would negate near-term short and open 0.306–0.309.
• R:R example: Entry 0.2956, stop 0.3013 (above R2/cluster), TP 0.2860 (near S1-S2 swing midpoint). Risk ~0.0057, reward ~0.0096 → R:R ~1.7. Within daily ATR; feasible in 24–36h.

13. Alternative path (if wrong)

• Break-and-hold above 0.296–0.298 flips the skew to a squeeze toward 0.301–0.306. In that case, a momentum buy-stop above 0.298 with tight risk can catch the expansion. Until that reclaim, fade rallies.

24-hour price path projection

• Baseline: Early probe into 0.295–0.296 fails, drift back through pivot (0.2923) to 0.289–0.291. If volatility expands, wick to 0.286–0.287 before rebounding toward 0.290 into the daily close.

Conclusion

• EOS is coiling under a well-defined lid (0.295–0.296) within a broader bearish regime, with AVWAP, 50% retrace, and pivot resistances clustering just above. Probability-weighted outcome favors a fade lower toward 0.289 first, with an extension risk to ~0.286 if the coil resolves down. Strategy: Sell rallies into 0.295–0.296 with a take-profit toward 0.286.

Trade plan (24h)

• Action: Short on a limit fill into resistance.
• Entry (optimal): 0.2956
• Take profit: 0.2860
• Invalidation (guidance): 0.3013 (above R2/cluster). Optional partial at 0.2890 to lock in gains.
• Notes: If price impulsively reclaims 0.298–0.301 on strong momentum, abandon the short thesis and reassess for a breakout long toward 0.306.