EOS at the Pivot: Fading the 0.295 Supply Wall in a Bearish Regime

Executive snapshot

• Instrument: EOS/USD
• Current price: 0.286684
• Regime: Post-crash distribution inside a descending channel; short-term intraday bounce inside a broader daily downtrend.
• Thesis in one line: Expect a near-term mean-reversion pop toward 0.293–0.296 into stacked resistance, then sellers to reassert toward 0.280–0.278; optimal trade is to sell the retest of R1/overhead supply.

1. Multi-timeframe market structure

• Daily trend: Lower highs and lower lows since the Oct 13 swing high (0.328). Failed bounces at 0.316, ~0.305, ~0.299 followed by fresh lows; price now pressing the lower half of the 10/17–10/29 range.
• Channel: A descending regression channel from 10/13 → 10/29 shows negative slope; price hugging the lower/mid band after a sharp 10/10 drawdown.
• Intraday (hourly, past ~24–30 hours): Sideways-to-up drift 0.282–0.288 for most of the day, with a liquidity sweep to 0.2771 at 18:00 UTC and quick reclaim toward 0.286–0.287. That flush-and-reclaim often precedes a test of overhead liquidity (0.292–0.296) before trend continuation.

2. Key support/resistance and confluence

• Immediate resistance: 0.292–0.296 (daily supply shelf and Classic Pivot R1 = 0.2961). Above that: 0.300–0.305 (prior breakdown zone), then 0.312–0.316 (lower high cluster), 0.328–0.332.
• Immediate support: 0.282–0.280 (hourly shelf), 0.277–0.278 (intraday sweep low and S1 ≈ 0.2778), then 0.273 (50% retrace of 10/10–10/13 move), 0.270 (S2 ≈ 0.2700), 0.264 (10/10 close), 0.214 (10/10 spike low).
• Classic Pivots (built off 10/28 H 0.298817, L 0.280509, C 0.285617):
  • PP = 0.2883; R1 = 0.2961; R2 = 0.3066; S1 = 0.2778; S2 = 0.2700. Current price is just below PP; typical behavior is a PP test followed by either R1 tag (if buyers push) or fade back to S1.

3. Moving averages (daily)

• 20-D SMA (approx): ~0.296. Price below the 20-D indicates near-term bearish bias; this SMA is aligned with R1/overhead supply—strong confluence.
• 50-D SMA (approx): Elevated and declining, well above price (dragged by Aug/early-Sep prints). Wide separation confirms the broader downtrend is intact.
• Short EMAs (5/10-D): Rolling over below the 20-D; bearish stack (5<10<20) is likely in place or close. Impact: A retest of the 20-D/PP-R1 cluster typically attracts sellers in a downtrend.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (approx): low- to mid-40s. Below 50 = bearish momentum regime; not oversold, so room to fall after a bounce. No clear bullish divergence vs recent lows.
• Stochastics (daily): Mid-range, turning up—supportive of a short-term pop but not a trend reversal.
• Hourly RSI: Reset from sub-30 on the 18:00 flush to mid-50s/60s on the rebound—consistent with a push toward resistance before momentum fades. Impact: Oscillators favor a near-term uptick into resistance, not a sustained rally.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD: Below zero since the crash; histogram has been flattening but remains weak. No confirmed bullish cross with follow-through.
• Hourly MACD: Turned up on the 18:00–20:00 recovery; suggests scope for a drift to 0.292–0.296 before reversion. Impact: Timeframe divergence (hourly up, daily down) favors selling into strength.

6. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• 20-D Bollinger Bands: Mid-band ≈ 0.296 (near R1). Price is below the mid-band, sitting in the lower half; lower band likely near 0.272–0.274. Band width has contracted since the 10/10 shock—volatility compression regime. Impact: Mean reversion toward the mid-band is plausible, but in a bearish regime the mid-band often acts as dynamic resistance.

7. ATR and expected range

• 14-D ATR (approx): ~0.010–0.012. Implies typical daily range ~3.5%–4.5% of spot. From 0.2867, a one-ATR move targets ~0.277–0.297. Impact: R1 (0.296) and S1 (0.278) lie near 1×ATR from spot—reasonable 24h targets.

8. Ichimoku (daily, approximate)

• Price below Kumo; Tenkan near ~0.288–0.290; Kijun near ~0.298–0.300; Span B above. Impact: In bearish Ichimoku state, Tenkan/Kijun often cap rallies. The Tenkan/Kijun band overlaps PP/R1 and the 20-D SMA—heavy confluence to fade.

9. Volume, OBV, and absorption

• Volume profile since 10/10: Highest activity on the crash and first rebound; subsequent declines show diminishing volume on down days and muted volume on up-days—a sign of weak demand.
• 10/29 18:00 UTC hourly candle: High volume on a downside wick to 0.2771 with a swift reclaim—classic liquidity sweep/stop run. Often this drags price into the nearest overhead supply (0.292–0.296) before trend resumes.
• OBV (qualitative): Drifting lower since mid-October; no strong bullish divergence. Impact: The sweep suggests a short-term bounce, but the broader volume trend remains distributional.

10. VWAP and Anchored VWAP

• Anchored VWAP from 10/10 event (qualitative): Likely ~0.296–0.300 given the heavy turnover at higher prices during the rebound. Impact: Another layer of resistance aligning with R1/20-D SMA/Kijun.

11. Fibonacci mapping

• Range: 10/10 low 0.214 → 10/13 high 0.332; Δ = 0.118.
  • 38.2% retracement: 0.332 − 0.382×0.118 ≈ 0.287. Current price sits right on this level—acts as a pivot.
  • 50%: ≈ 0.273 (aligns with S2 vicinity and prior pivot 0.274 on 10/11).
  • 61.8%: ≈ 0.259 (near 10/10 close 0.264). Impact: Loss of 0.284–0.287 opens path to 0.273. First, expect a re-tag of 0.292–0.296 before deciding direction; in a downtrend, shallow retrace levels often cap.

12. Candlesticks and patterns

• Daily: 10/27–10/28 produced lower highs; 10/28 close near lows; 10/29 intraday recovery forms a potential bearish flag/mean-reversion setup under the 20-D.
• Hourly: Stop-run wick to 0.2771 followed by small-bodied candles grinding higher—typical for a supply retest. Impact: Pattern bias favors fade of a push into 0.293–0.296.

13. Classical mean-reversion vs momentum blend

• Mean reversion says: Below 20-D SMA and BB mid, price tends to snap back toward ~0.296 then fade.
• Momentum says: Daily negatives dominate; rallies are for selling until 0.300–0.305 is reclaimed on closing basis. Synthesis: Sell rips into 0.295 ± 0.002.

14. Scenario probabilities (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Test PP→R1 (0.288→0.296), then rejection back to 0.282–0.279; settle near 0.281–0.284.
• Bear extension (30%): Lose 0.282 decisively; tag S1 0.278 and probe 0.274–0.273 (50% fib) if momentum accelerates.
• Bull break (15%): Strong reclaim through 0.296 and daily close ≥0.300 leads to 0.305–0.307 (R2) test; larger squeeze possible to 0.312–0.316 if follow-through appears. This is the invalidation of the short idea.

15. Execution plan and risk framing

• Optimal entry: Limit sell 0.2948–0.2962 (sits inside the R1/20-D SMA/Kijun/Anchored VWAP cluster; also proximity to overhead supply at 0.295–0.300).
• Take-profit: First objective 0.282–0.280; extended objective 0.277–0.278 (S1 and liquidity pocket). For this brief window, target 0.2774 just above the 0.2771 sweep to front-run bids.
• Risk control (not requested but critical): Protective stop ideally 0.3016–0.3025 (above the 0.300–0.305 breakdown shelf). That yields roughly 1:1.6–1:2 R:R to 0.277–0.280 depending on fill.

16. Bottom line

• The confluence at 0.295–0.300 is heavy: 20-D SMA, R1, Ichimoku lines, anchored VWAP zone, prior supply shelf. Daily trend is down; hourly bounce likely runs into that wall. Probability-weighted path favors a sell-the-rip approach with targets back to 0.280–0.278.

24-hour price path projection

• Anticipated high: 0.295–0.297
• Anticipated low: 0.277–0.279
• Likely settlement zone: 0.281–0.284

Decision: Sell (short) the retest of 0.295, target 0.2774 within the next 24–48 hours; in the next 24h, a hit of 0.280–0.279 is achievable, with 0.2774 attainable if momentum extends.