Sell the Rip: EOS Faces Another Leg Down After a Weak Bounce

Executive summary and bias

• Short-term bias (next 24h): Bearish continuation after a likely relief bounce. Expect a retest of 0.245–0.249 followed by a push toward 0.232 and potentially 0.226/0.222 if sell momentum persists.
• Plan: Sell the rip into 0.247 area (Fibonacci 38.2%/intraday supply/VWAP confluence). Target 0.223.

1. Multi-timeframe price structure

• Daily trend since mid-August:
  • Aug peak near 0.60, then steady distribution; September carved a mid-0.46–0.51 range and broke down late Sep to ~0.40.
  • Oct was a stair-step down with a capitulation-like drop on Oct 10 (0.386 -> 0.264 close). Subsequent late-Oct consolidation 0.28–0.30 failed, producing a fresh breakdown on Nov 3–4 into the mid-0.23s.
  • Clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows across months. Any bounces have been sold quickly; trend-following pressure intact.
• Recent daily key levels from the dataset:
  • Resistance: 0.271–0.275 (Nov 1–2 highs), 0.262–0.263 (Nov 4 intraday spike), 0.256, 0.253.
  • Support: 0.250 (lost Nov 3–4), 0.241–0.244 (brief intraday demand; broken), 0.232 (today’s session low), extension supports 0.226/0.219.
• Intraday (hourly, Nov 3–4):
  • Nov 4 printed a lower-high sequence: 0.263 -> 0.259 -> 0.255 -> 0.249 -> 0.242 -> 0.237.
  • Multiple rejections in the 0.255–0.263 band and a sharp late-day slip to 0.2317 before a small bounce.
  • Structure = bear trend with shallow bounces; sellers active at VWAP/previous spike highs.

2. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI (est.): Persistent downtrend from ~0.30s to ~0.23s in 3 days implies RSI likely sub-30 (oversold). However, in strong downtrends, oversold can persist; oversold alone is not a buy signal.
• 1h RSI: Likely set a mild bullish divergence (low near 0.2317 with less negative RSI than prior dip), supporting a tactical bounce into resistance. But no trend reversal signals yet—momentum remains negative on higher timeframe.
• MACD (daily): Below zero with expanding negative histogram since the late-Oct rollover. Momentum favors further downside; any positive hourly crossovers are counter-trend.
• Stochastics (intraday): Oversold bounces repeatedly capped beneath prior swing highs; oscillators recycling without trend shift confirms sell-the-rip strategy.

3. Moving averages

• Daily MA stack (approx.):
  • 20D SMA ~0.29 (well above price), 50D SMA ~0.39–0.41 (much higher). Price far below fast and slow MAs — classic bearish alignment.
  • 5–10D EMAs likely in 0.26–0.28 region and curling down; dynamic resistance on bounces.
• Hourly MAs: Price trades below 20/50/100 EMA, with 20 EMA < 50 EMA < 100 EMA — intraday downtrend intact; rallies to the 20–50 EMA band are fading opportunities.

4. Volatility and range

• ATR (daily): Expanded since Oct 10 shock. Recent daily moves of ~0.015–0.02 suggest a 24h expected range of roughly ±0.01–0.012 from midpoint.
• For next 24h, a band of ~0.226–0.248 around current prints is reasonable. A downside tail to 0.222 is plausible if momentum accelerates.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Price hugging/living below the lower band since the Nov 3 breakdown. Persistent lower-band walk implies trend continuation risk outweighs mean-reversion odds.
• Bollinger (1h): Expansion on selloff, minor contraction on weak bounce; a pop toward mid-band (~0.247) is consistent before trend resumes.

5. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Daily volume spikes at key breakdowns (Oct 10, Nov 3–4) show distribution by strong hands. Follow-through sell days have outpaced buy-side volume.
• Intraday Nov 4: notable volume on rejections near 0.26 and on the late-day slip. Where volume appears as 0 in data, treat as missing; the prints we do have cluster on down legs and rejection candles — bearish.
• OBV (qualitative): Rolling over since Oct; no accumulation signature.

6. Support/resistance mapping and confluence

• Overhead supply zones:
  • 0.247–0.249: Confluence zone of 1h mid-BB, 1h MA cluster, session VWAP proximity, and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the Nov 3 high to Nov 4 low.
  • 0.251–0.256: 50–61.8% retrace band, prior intraday rejection area, and underside of 1h trendline. Stronger supply if price reaches it.
• Nearby supports:
  • 0.238–0.241: Minor intraday shelf; already cracked late session.
  • 0.232: Today’s low; a break opens 0.226 and then 0.219 (Fibonacci extensions measured below).

7. Fibonacci analysis

• Swing used: Nov 3 high 0.27199 to Nov 4 low 0.23167 (range ~0.04032).
  • 38.2%: 0.2471 (prime short entry confluence)
  • 50%: 0.2518
  • 61.8%: 0.2565
• Downside extension from the prior late-Oct swing (0.299 -> 0.264 = 0.035):
  • 1.272 ext: ~0.264 - 0.035*1.272 ≈ 0.2195
  • 1.618 ext: ~0.206
• These project risk of a drift into low 0.22s if 0.232 fails decisively.

8. Ichimoku (directional filter)

• Price well below Tenkan/Kijun; cloud far above near 0.29–0.30 and future cloud red.
• Chikou span below price and cloud: full bearish stack. Signals favor shorting rallies until Tenkan/Kijun recapture, which is not imminent.

9. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP (approx Nov 4): clustering around mid 0.24s–0.25s; price currently below, and intraday rejections at/above VWAP suggest seller control.
• Anchored VWAP from Nov 3 breakdown sits higher (~0.258–0.261 zone by inspection of where volume clustered and price rejected). Expect sellers to defend this if reached; first test unlikely given weakness.

10. Market structure and patterns

• Bear flag behavior: Intraday bounce to 0.262 formed a rising channel that broke lower into the close.
• Lower highs/lower lows remain intact on hourly and daily.
• No base formation: no rounded bottom, no tight higher-low cluster, and no accumulation volume signature.
• Candles: Multiple long-bodied red candles and upper wicks on bounces (supply).

11. Divergences and mean reversion context

• 1h bullish divergence is marginal and likely only supports a tactical bounce; it does not offset the higher-timeframe downtrend.
• Mean reversion odds rise after prolonged lower-band walks, but the nearest mean references (20D SMA ~0.29) are too far above to be realistic in 24h.

12. Risk management frame

• Best asymmetry: fade a bounce into 0.247–0.249 with stops above 0.256 (above 61.8% retrace and 1h supply). Target 0.223 aligns with extension cluster and daily ATR.
• R:R example: Entry 0.247, Stop 0.257 (risk 0.010), TP 0.223 (reward 0.024) ≈ 2.4R.

13. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60–65%): Price bounces to 0.245–0.249, sellers reassert, break 0.232, prints 0.226–0.223 by session end.
• Alt scenario up (25–30%): Squeeze above 0.249 drives to 0.252–0.256 (61.8% retrace), where trend likely resumes lower unless heavy buy volume appears. A close >0.258 would start to neutralize intraday bear pressure.
• Tail risk down (10–15%): Immediate gap/flush below 0.232 with accelerated momentum, tagging 0.219–0.216 quickly. In that case, consider scaling out early if already short from a bounce, or reloading on weak retests.

14. Tools and techniques used (and what they say)

• Trend analysis (daily/hourly): Strong downtrend, sell rallies.
• Moving averages (SMA/EMA stacks): Bearish alignment; dynamic resistance above.
• RSI/Stochastics: Oversold in trend; limited to tactical bounces.
• MACD: Negative and widening; favors continuation.
• Bollinger Bands: Lower-band walk; trend over mean reversion.
• ATR: Elevated; range sufficient to reach 0.223 target in 24h.
• Volume/OBV: Distribution; no accumulation.
• Support/Resistance: Clear supply at 0.247–0.256; demand thin below 0.232.
• Fibonacci retracements/extensions: Entry and targets validated by 38.2/50/61.8 and 1.272/1.618 projections.
• Ichimoku: Fully bearish stack; no reversal signal.
• VWAP/Anchored VWAP: Price below VWAP; rejections at/near it; higher anchored VWAP acts as cap.
• Market structure: Lower highs/lows; bear flags resolving down.

15. Trade plan and execution notes

• Execution: Place a limit sell at 0.247 (slightly ahead of confluence) to increase fill odds.
• Confirmation (optional): If price fails to bounce, a breakdown sell-stop below 0.231 could be a momentum entry, but slippage risk increases; primary plan is to sell the bounce.
• Management: If filled at 0.247 and price stalls 0.235–0.236 with divergence, scale partial at 0.232 and hold runner to 0.223.
• Invalidation: Hourly close above 0.257 or daily close above 0.262 would weaken the setup.

Conclusion and 24h forecast

• Expect a modest relief rally toward 0.247–0.249, then renewed selling pressure aiming for 0.232 break and a slide toward 0.226–0.223. Trend, momentum, volume, and structure all favor shorting strength over bottom-fishing.