EOS at the Edge: Fading the Relief Bounce into Resistance (24h Short Setup)

Multi-timeframe market structure snapshot

• Instrument: EOS/USD
• Current price: 0.2528
• Timeframe mix: Daily trend is decisively bearish since early August, accelerated by the Oct-10 capitulation. Hourly shows a modest relief bounce from ~0.241 to ~0.254 over the last 24 hours, now stalling beneath nearby resistance.

Price action and structure

• Daily trend: Clear series of lower highs and lower lows from ~0.60 → ~0.25. The Oct-10 crash candle (0.3869 → 0.2641, with very high volume) reset the structure; subsequent rallies to ~0.328/0.316 failed and rolled over into late-Oct declines toward ~0.265 and then ~0.251.
• Post-crash behavior: Multiple failed bounces around 0.29–0.30 and 0.27–0.28 created heavy overhead supply. The Nov-3 bar (H 0.2720, L 0.2411, C 0.2510) widened the range lower, confirming sellers remain in control on the daily timeframe.
• Intraday (hourly): Since Nov-4 22:00, price lifted from ~0.2418 low to ~0.2538 high, mapping a rising channel. The most recent hours show waning momentum near 0.253–0.254 and frequent rejections in the 0.2525–0.2538 band.

Key levels (confluence of multiple techniques)

• Overhead supply/resistance:
  • 0.258–0.264: Recent swing failure zone (late Oct/early Nov minor highs) and pre-crash micro shelf.
  • 0.271–0.273: Nov-1/2 highs; strong supply if reached in a squeeze.
• Immediate resistance:
  • 0.2538–0.2545: Intraday highs/upper-BB neighborhood; near daily pivot P.
• Supports:
  • 0.249–0.250: Intraday VWAP/Kijun-like base and prior micro-balance.
  • 0.245–0.246: Hourly pullback shelf; aligns with BB mid-to-lower tests.
  • 0.241–0.242: Nov-4/5 session low cluster; strong intraday support.
  • 0.233: Intraday spike low (11/05 01:00) as extreme tail liquidity.

Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily MAs (approx):
  • 20SMA ≈ 0.288 (estimated from past 20 closes). Price (0.253) is below: bearish bias.
  • 50SMA ≈ 0.40–0.42 (trend-averaged from Aug-Sept higher prices, then Oct drop). Deeply below: confirms dominant downtrend.
• Hourly EMAs:
  • EMA8/EMA21: Bullish alignment intraday after the lift; price riding above EMA21 but momentum flattening. In a higher-timeframe downtrend, such intraday EMA stacks tend to fade into resistance rather than trend for long.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (est.): Low-to-mid 40s after prolonged downtrend; below 50 keeps medium-term bearish regime intact.
• Hourly RSI: Mid-to-high 50s after the bounce, with mild bearish divergence versus the latest marginal highs near 0.253–0.254 (RSI not making higher highs while price retested highs). Suggests waning intraday momentum.
• StochRSI (intraday inference): Cycling down from overbought, in line with a possible pullback toward 0.249–0.246.

MACD

• Daily MACD: Below zero with a modest attempt to curl that failed in late Oct; histogram recently turned down again as price slipped from ~0.29 to ~0.25. This keeps the macro bearish pressure on.
• Hourly MACD: Crossed up earlier in the session driving the bounce; histogram now flattening near zero-to-slightly positive, typical before a mean-reversion drift back to the signal when price hugs resistance.

Volatility and range

• Daily ATR(14) (est.): ~0.012–0.015 post-stabilization (smaller than the crash day), implying typical daily swings of 4–6% around current levels.
• Hourly realized vol: Reduced and compressing; BB width suggests a 1-day expected range roughly 0.241–0.259 barring a shock.

Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels (hourly)

• BB(20,2): Midline ≈ 0.249–0.250; Upper ≈ 0.254; Lower ≈ 0.245. Price sits near the upper band, increasing odds of a mean-reversion push back toward 0.249–0.246 in the next session.
• BB squeeze relative to Keltner: Bands modestly outside Keltners earlier; currently narrowing—often precedes a direction move. Given daily downtrend, probability-weighted break favors downside after tests of resistance.

Ichimoku (hourly, qualitative)

• Price above Tenkan and Kijun after the bounce; cloud ahead appears thin/flat near ~0.249–0.250. Thin clouds are easy to penetrate; a pullback to Kijun/VWAP region is likely if momentum doesn’t expand.

VWAP and volume dynamics

• Intraday VWAP ~0.249–0.250; price oscillates just above. Fading moves above VWAP in a macro-downtrend often pays. Volume on the recent upticks is mediocre compared with sell-volume spikes from Nov-3, implying sellers may reassert near resistance.
• OBV (qualitative): No strong accumulation signature post-bounce.

Pivot points (based on 2025-11-03 daily H/L/C: 0.2720/0.2411/0.2510)

• Classic P = 0.2547; R1 = 0.2683; S1 = 0.2374; R2 = 0.2856; S2 = 0.2238.
• Current price is below P and repeatedly failing near it: bearish skew while under 0.2547. R1 at 0.268 lines up with the 0.264–0.271 supply band.

Fibonacci mapping

• Recent swing low-to-high (0.233 → 0.2538):
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.2479; 61.8% ≈ 0.2440.
  • A typical two-legged pullback could revisit 0.246–0.244 if the 0.249 shelf breaks.
• Larger swing (0.272 → 0.241 → 0.251 close): Daily pivot confluence places gravity slightly below current price.

Pattern read

• Hourly rising channel/flag following a sharp down-leg from late Oct → Nov-3 resembles a bear flag. Price is now testing the flag’s upper quadrant/BB upper band. Typical resolution probability favors a break lower back into the prior value area (0.249 → 0.246 → potentially 0.241).
• Candles near 0.253–0.254 show upper-wick rejections (micro shooting-star behavior), consistent with seller presence.

Statistical/mean-reversion cues

• Z-score vs 20-hour mean ≈ +1 to +1.3 near 0.253–0.254. In a bearish higher-timeframe trend, positive z-score extremes often fade.
• Linear regression channel (hourly, last ~24 bars): Slope positive but flattening; price hugging the upper rail tends to revert to the mean line (~0.249) before trend decisions.

Scenario planning for next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Early Asia/Europe push tests 0.254–0.256; sellers fade the move, price reverts to 0.249–0.246, with intraday bounces. Settlement bias around 0.248–0.250.
• Bullish extension (25%): Momentum squeeze through 0.256–0.258, probing 0.260–0.264 supply. Without strong volume expansion, likely to stall and mean-revert later.
• Bearish accelerate (15%): Loss of 0.246 leads to quick test of 0.241–0.242; if liquidity thins, tails toward 0.237 (S1) are possible.

Trade construction logic

• Edge: Shorting a fading rally into confluence resistance (upper BB, daily pivot P ≈0.2547, supply at 0.2538–0.256) aligns with the dominant daily downtrend while exploiting intraday mean reversion.
• Entry preference: Staggered short entries 0.2530–0.2560. For a single-price instruction, a limit sell near 0.2530 balances fill probability with favorable R:R.
• Take-profit focus: First magnet 0.249–0.250 (VWAP/mean), then 0.246 (38.2–50% retrace pocket and prior shelf). For a single target, 0.246 is the optimal compromise within 24h.
• Invalidation/stop (not part of the required fields, but crucial): Above 0.2605–0.262 (clear break and hold), as that opens path to 0.264–0.271 supply.

Bottom line

• Macro downtrend intact; intraday bounce is labored and probing resistance. Probability-weighted path over the next 24 hours is a fade from ~0.253–0.256 back toward 0.249 and 0.246. Thus, a tactical short is favored now/into minor strength.