EOS hugs the lower band: Fade the bounce toward 0.25 for a push to 0.235

Executive summary

• Bias for next 24 hours: Bearish with bounce risk. Base case is a weak throwback toward 0.249–0.255 followed by continuation lower to 0.238–0.235.
• Plan: Sell a bounce; use 0.249–0.251 as optimal entry zone, target 0.235–0.236. Invalidation if hourly closes reclaim 0.261–0.266 cluster.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and market structure

• Daily trend: Down. Since the 11/07 spike to 0.3222, EOS has carved lower highs (0.299–0.300 on 11/10, 0.2817 on 11/12) and lower lows, breaking the 0.26–0.27 range today. Current price 0.2460 is probing the late-October/early-November support band (0.243–0.246), just above the 11/04 swing low zone (0.2317 intraday; 0.2452 close).
• 4H/1H trend: Also down. The 1H series shows a clean breakdown sequence 17:00–20:00 UTC with expanding ranges and heavy volume, then a small pause/doji near 21:00—typically a bear flag pause rather than a reversal when occurring beneath broken support.
• Structure levels:
  • Supports: 0.246/0.243 (tested today), 0.238, 0.235, 0.232 (11/04 intraday low), 0.214 (10/10 capitulation spike low).
  • Resistances: 0.2496–0.251 (local 19:00 high 0.24965), 0.255, 0.261–0.266 (yesterday’s value cluster), 0.273–0.275 (38.2% bounce level), 0.285, 0.296–0.300, 0.311–0.322.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily SMA20 ≈ 0.279 (approximate 20-day mean of closes), price at 0.246 is 12% below—bearish impulse. SMA50 (skewed by pre-crash prices) is far above price, reinforcing a primary downtrend.
• EMAs: On daily, fast EMAs (12/26) are negative and widening; on 1H the 20/50 EMA ribbon is downward sloped with price under both, consistent with trend persistence.
• Ichimoku (conceptual): Price is below the cloud across intraday and daily; Tenkan < Kijun; lagging span beneath price—bearish stack.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Likely low-to-mid 30s and falling after today’s break; not deeply oversold on the daily, so room exists for continuation.
• 1H RSI: Printed oversold sub-30 during the 17:00–20:00 sell wave, now attempting a feeble uptick—a setup conducive to a small mean-reversion pop into resistance (0.249–0.255) before sellers re-engage.
• Stochastic RSI (intraday): Resetting from pinned lows, supporting a tactical bounce but not a trend change while below 0.261–0.266.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily): Midband ≈ SMA20 ~0.279; lower band estimated near 0.245. Price is riding the lower band (“band walk”). Band walks typically persist during strong trends; bounces often stall at the mid-band of the 1H timeframe (0.252–0.256 today) rather than the daily mid-band.
• ATR (daily): Elevated post-10/10 crash; current daily ATR roughly 0.015–0.020. A 24h move from 0.246 can feasibly explore 0.231–0.261 without breaching normal volatility.

5. Volume analytics

• Distribution vs. capitulation: Today’s day volume (~0.89M so far) is elevated during the breakdown but not a washout comparable to 11/07 (2.53M). That suggests distribution rather than capitulation—bearish for follow-through.
• On-Balance Volume: Trending down since 11/07; no bullish divergence. Sellers control the tape on down moves; upswings occur on lighter volume.
• 1H burst: Heavy prints at 17:00–20:00 synchronized with price expansion—impulsive selling characteristic of trend continuation, not exhaustion.

6. Fibonacci mapping and throwback zones

• Swing considered: 11/07 high 0.3222 to today’s low 0.2434 (range ≈ 0.0788).
  • 23.6%: ~0.2620
  • 38.2%: ~0.2735 (coincides with 11/11 close 0.2735)
  • 61.8%: ~0.2921 (near 11/08–11/10 pivots ~0.295–0.297)
• Implication: First resistance for any reactive bounce sits 0.255–0.262. Given current weakness, bounces to 0.262 are possible but not assured; the first sell zone likely starts earlier at 0.249–0.251 (micro 1H resistance) with extension to 0.255.

7. Market profile / VWAP

• Intraday VWAP (11/13 session) resides above current price due to the afternoon selloff; anchored VWAP from the 17:00 breakdown hovers in the 0.252–0.255 region. Price below VWAPs = sellers in control; rallies to VWAP are often sold in downtrends.
• Volume nodes: HVNs around 0.266–0.270 and 0.296; LVN near 0.255. A rally into 0.255–0.266 confronts both LVN rejection risk and prior value selling pressure.

8. Pattern diagnostics

• Bear flag/descending channel: After the 11/07 spike, the sequence has morphed into a controlled grind lower with impulsive legs down and weak bounces—classic bear-flag continuation. The 17:00–20:00 drop today looks like the next flagpole with a developing micro-flag below 0.249–0.251.
• Candles: 17:00 large red body, 18:00 continuation, 19:00–21:00 small-bodied pauses—more consistent with consolidation than reversal.

9. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• From 11/07 top: A 5-wave intraday impulse likely completed or completing into 0.243–0.246. Expect an ABC corrective bounce toward 0.249–0.255 (A/B/C), then resumption lower in the larger-degree downtrend—aligns with the sell-the-bounce plan.

10. Risk management, invalidation, scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Weak bounce stalls 0.249–0.255, then continuation to 0.238–0.235. Structure and volume favor trend persistence given no capitulation signature.
• Bounce case (30%): Stronger retrace tags 0.261–0.266 (prior support turned resistance/VWAP zone) before rolling over. Only sustained hourly closes above 0.266 would threaten shorts.
• Bull surprise (10%): Reclaim 0.270 on strong breadth and close above 0.273–0.275 (38.2% level), opening a path to 0.285–0.292. This requires a clear momentum shift not yet present.
• Invalidation for shorts: Hourly close above 0.266 first, and especially above 0.270 with rising volume; daily close back above 0.273 would flip bias to neutral.

11. Synthesis and trade plan

• Confluence for short: Downtrend across frames, breakdown below 0.26–0.27, OBV deterioration, price under intraday VWAP, lower-band walk, resistance stack overhead (0.249–0.266), and no capitulation low. Tactical bounces are opportunities to sell.
• Entry: Optimal to place a limit sell near the first micro throwback pivot (0.249–0.251). That balances fill probability with favorable R:R, while avoiding the risk that a deeper 0.255–0.262 retrace never materializes.
• Target: 0.235–0.236 (front-run of 0.232 swing low) within ATR for 24h.
• Suggested stop (for context): 0.261–0.266 zone depending on aggressiveness; an hourly close above 0.266 invalidates the immediate short thesis. R:R roughly 1:1.5–1:2 from a 0.249–0.251 entry with a 0.262 stop and 0.235 TP.

Forecast for the next 24 hours

• Expect price to oscillate between 0.243 and 0.255 initially. Probability-weighted path: minor bounce into 0.249–0.251, rejection, then drift lower probing 0.240–0.238, with spikes toward 0.235 possible if sell momentum re-accelerates.