EOS at the Edge: Sell the Bounce into 0.253 as the Downtrend Presses On

Executive summary

• Regime: Bearish short-term trend intact; price trades below key moving averages and beneath daily pivot. EOS is hugging the lower Bollinger Band after multiple failed intraday reclaims of 0.252–0.255.
• Bias next 24h: Sell strength. Expect a relief pop toward 0.252–0.255 (prior intraday supply and daily pivot zone), then continuation lower toward 0.243–0.245 if resistance holds.
• Plan: Short the bounce into 0.252–0.255, target a retest of today’s lower tail (0.242–0.243).

Multi-timeframe technical analysis

1. Daily trend, structure, and levels

• Trend: Since the Nov 7 spike high (0.322 intraday, 0.3116 close), EOS has printed persistent lower highs and lower lows. Closes: 0.3116 (Nov 7) → 0.2949 → 0.2905 → 0.2965 → 0.2735 → 0.2670 → 0.2530 → 0.2483 today. Structure remains decisively bearish.
• Key supports: 0.245–0.248 (being tested), 0.242–0.243 (today’s sweep), 0.231–0.235 (Nov 4 capitulation low), and extreme spike 0.214 (Oct 10).
• Key resistances: 0.252–0.255 (intraday supply cluster and yesterday’s close proximity), 0.261–0.267 (recent distribution shelf), 0.271–0.274 (10/31–11/2 value area), 0.285–0.296 (strong overhead from late Oct).
• Candlestick context: Today is shaping as a small-bodied candle with a meaningful lower shadow (low 0.2423), i.e., a hammer-like reaction at lower band. In downtrends, such candles often produce a 1–2 bar relief before sellers reassert below resistance.

2. Moving averages and crossovers

• 5-day SMA ≈ 0.2677; 10-day SMA ≈ 0.2752. Price 0.2483 is below both, confirming short-term downtrend and momentum underperformance.
• 20–50 day orientation: Given price action across Oct–Nov mostly below 0.30, the 20-day SMA is likely ~0.279–0.283 and below the 50-day SMA that was higher pre-crash; the slope for both is down. No bullish cross evidence; bear regime persists.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): Low-to-mid 30s after a string of down closes and a fresh probe to 0.242. That’s bearish momentum with a mild oversold reading near lower band; typical for short, tradable bounces that fail under resistance.
• Stochastic: Likely sub-30 and curling; suggests bounce potential, but in bear regime stochastic bounces often stall around midline (40–60) as price meets resistance.
• MACD (12/26/9): Negative and below signal since early-mid Nov. Histogram likely still below zero; any contraction intraday looks like a pause more than a reversal.

4. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Price tagged or flirted with the lower band (~0.243–0.246). Mean reversion can lift price toward the 20-SMA mid-band (~0.279) over multiple sessions, but within 24h the more realistic magnet is the band interior around 0.252–0.257 if offered.
• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.011–0.015 after the post-crash compression. Expect a 24h range roughly 0.241–0.260 absent a shock.

5. Volume and participation

• Down days draw heavier volume than up days (Nov 11–13). Today’s intraday spikes around 19:00–20:00 coincided with pushes lower, signaling sell-the-rip behavior.
• OBV proxy: Drifting down since Nov 7, confirming distribution.

6. Market profile and pivots

• Classic daily pivot (based on 11/13 H/L/C: 0.2723/0.2433/0.2530):
  • P ≈ 0.2562; R1 ≈ 0.2691; S1 ≈ 0.2401; R2 ≈ 0.2851; S2 ≈ 0.2273.
  • Today stayed below P and oscillated between P and S1, keeping bearish bias intact. A fade setup is favored on tests toward P.

7. Fibonacci mapping (swing Nov 7 high → today’s low)

• Range: 0.322 → 0.2423 (Δ ≈ 0.0797).
• Retracements from low: 23.6% ≈ 0.2611; 38.2% ≈ 0.2728; 50% ≈ 0.2822; 61.8% ≈ 0.2915.
• For the next 24h, 23.6% (0.261) is an upper stretch if a squeeze occurs; 38.2% (0.273) unlikely without news. Thus 0.252–0.256 is a high-probability supply zone for a fade.

8. Ichimoku lens (daily)

• Price below cloud; cloud is bearish ahead; Tenkan < Kijun; price well under Kijun (~0.27s). Classic bearish trend posture. Mean-reversion attempts typically fail ahead of Kijun in this regime.

9. Intraday (hourly) structure and VWAP

• Hourly sequence on 11/14: Lower highs at ~0.2533 (15:00), ~0.2524 (16:00), ~0.2517 (19:00), then a fade to 0.247–0.248. Support prints clustered 0.245–0.246 with a liquidity sweep to 0.242.
• Anchored day VWAP estimate sits near 0.249–0.250; price spends time below/around it, implying sellers are in control and rallies above VWAP are being sold.

10. Pattern diagnostics

• Descending channel from Nov 7 with controlled volatility. Today’s lower wick is a classic bear-flag reset: squeeze shorts a bit, then resume trend unless key resistance is reclaimed.
• No confirmed bullish reversal pattern (e.g., morning star, engulfing) on daily closes.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (55%): Relief bounce toward 0.252–0.255 stalls beneath daily pivot; sellers fade the move; price rotates down to 0.243–0.246; potential close near 0.245–0.247.
• Upside squeeze (30%): Strong bid breaks 0.255 and tags 0.258–0.261 (23.6% Fib). Without a daily close above ~0.261–0.266 (and reclaimed pivot range), sustainability is doubtful.
• Downside extension (15%): Immediate break of 0.245 and 0.242 opens a run to 0.238–0.235; unlikely without a catalyst given today’s lower wick absorption but possible if BTC/majors risk-off.

Trade plan and risk management

• Edge: Sell-the-bounce into overhead supply identified by hourly lower-highs, daily pivot resistance, VWAP overhang, and negative momentum ensemble.
• Entry: Scale a short at 0.252–0.255; optimal limit around 0.2528–0.2535 to front-run supply and the 11/14 15:00 high (0.2533).
• Take-profit: 0.242–0.243 to capture the retest of today’s swept liquidity while staying above the absolute low to improve fill probability.
• Invalidation (not an order field, but critical): A sustained move and hourly acceptance above ~0.258–0.261 (VWAP + pivot reclaim + 23.6% Fib) weakens the short thesis and risks a push toward 0.266–0.273. A prudent protective stop would be ~0.2587–0.2605 depending on risk tolerance.

Why Sell vs Buy here

• Structure: Lower highs/lows, price below 5/10/20 SMAs and below daily pivot; OBV sloping down. These favor shorting bounces, not buying dips.
• Location: Current price is near support; risk-reward for fresh longs is inferior unless you buy very near 0.243 with tight stops. The higher-probability trade is to wait for a push into 0.252–0.255 supply and fade it.

24-hour price map

• Expected range: 0.241–0.256.
• Probable path: Early bounce to 0.252–0.255 → rejection → drift to 0.244–0.246 → probe 0.242–0.243 into NY/EU overlap.

Bottom line

• Plan: Sell the rally. Optimal entry 0.2528. Target 0.2428 within 24h. Bearish bias remains unless price accepts above ~0.258–0.261.