EOS: Fade the Relief Rally — Short Into 0.253 Supply, Target 0.236 Within 24 Hours

Step 1 — Market structure and context

• Regime shift: A violent breakdown on 2025-10-10 (close 0.2641, intraday low 0.2139 on volume spike) transitioned EOS from a 0.39–0.50 regime into a lower 0.21–0.32 regime. Subsequent rebound (10-12 to 11-07) failed at 0.3222 and has since rolled over into lower highs/lower lows.
• Sequence of swing highs/lows (post-crash):
  • Highs: 10-12: 0.3089; 10-13: 0.3280; 10-21: 0.3016; 11-07: 0.3222 (news/impulse spike); 11-10: 0.3005 (lower high vs 11-07 intraday).
  • Lows: 10-30: 0.2647; 11-03: 0.2510; 11-14–11-19: successive lower lows 0.2445 → 0.2414 → 0.2352 → 0.2288 (11-19 close), with 11-19 intraday low 0.2187.
• Current price 0.2423 is a modest bounce from 11-19 close 0.2288, but still within a dominant daily downtrend and below key supply zones.

Step 2 — Trend diagnostics (MAs, slope, positioning)

• 20-day SMA (computed from 10-31 to 11-19 closes) ≈ 0.2621. Price at 0.2423 is below the 20-SMA by ~7.6%: short-term bearish bias.
• 50-day SMA (qualitative): With September–early October closes mostly 0.39–0.52, SMA50 is far above current price (>0.30), confirming a dominant higher-timeframe downtrend.
• Moving average stack: Price < 20-SMA < 50-SMA — bearish alignment typical of trend continuation lower or “sell-the-rip” conditions.

Step 3 — Momentum (RSI, Stochastic, MACD)

• RSI(14) as of 11-19 (manual calc):
  • Gains (5/14 periods): ≈ 0.0659 total; Losses (9/14): ≈ 0.0918 total.
  • Avg Gain ≈ 0.00471; Avg Loss ≈ 0.00655; RS ≈ 0.719; RSI ≈ 41.8.
  • Interpretation: Bearish momentum below 50, not yet deeply oversold. Today’s bounce likely nudges RSI toward mid-40s, still sub-50.
• Stochastic (14): Range high ≈ 0.3222 (11-07), range low ≈ 0.2187 (11-19). With 11-19 close at 0.2288 and today 0.2423, %K remains near the lower quartile — oversold to weakly recovering, supportive of a short-term bounce that typically stalls under resistance in downtrends.
• MACD (qualitative): With price persistently below the falling 12/26 EMAs and failed follow-through after the 11-07 impulse, MACD histogram likely negative; signal line above MACD line earlier but converging with today’s bounce — classic countertrend uptick within a bearish MACD structure.

Step 4 — Volatility and bands (ATR, Bollinger)

• ATR(14) estimate ≈ 0.015 (typical recent daily TR 0.012–0.02). Use for 24-hour range expectations of ±0.015 around pivots.
• Bollinger Bands(20, 2):
  • Middle ≈ 0.2621; est. stdev ≈ 0.020 → Upper ≈ 0.302; Lower ≈ 0.222.
  • 11-19 close near lower band; current 0.2423 sits below the mid-band. In downtrends, price often rides the lower band and mean-reverts toward the mid-band before resuming lower. This supports a bounce ceiling near 0.252–0.262.

Step 5 — Volume/OBV/behavioral read

• Distributional bias: Large down-volume spikes (10-10, 11-18) vs. muted up-volume sessions imply net supply dominance.
• 11-07 breakout to 0.3222 on very high volume failed to hold — classic bull trap / overhead supply creation. Post-trap OBV slope is likely downward; rallies into 0.29–0.30 repeatedly met supply.
• The last three sessions into 11-19 show increasing volume on down days and a capitulatory test to 0.2187 with a close off the lows (possible hammer), enabling a reflexive bounce.

Step 6 — Market patterns

• Descending triangle setup: Flatish support 0.235–0.236 with descending lower highs since 11-10; breakdown risk persists toward 0.219/0.214 if 0.235 gives way on a closing basis.
• 11-19 candlestick: Intraday low 0.2187, close 0.2288 — lower shadow suggests dip-buying interest, but within a primary downtrend, such hammers often resolve with a 1–3 session bounce into supply, then continuation down.
• Channel: A downward channel from mid-October contains price; the upper boundary currently crosses ~0.255–0.262.

Step 7 — Fibonacci and confluences

• From 10-10 low 0.21399 to 11-07 high 0.32217 → swing = 0.10818.
  • 38.2%: ~0.2811; 50%: ~0.2681; 61.8%: ~0.2552; 78.6%: ~0.2352.
• Price has retraced beyond 78.6% and flirted with a near-full retrace, increasing odds of revisiting 0.214–0.219 unless a strong reclaim above 0.255/0.262 occurs. Confluence:
  • 0.255–0.262 aligns with 61.8% retracement and 20-SMA/Bollinger midline: strong overhead supply zone.
  • 0.235–0.236 aligns with 78.6% retracement and horizontal support: weakly defended so far.

Step 8 — Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price is below the Cloud; Senkou spans likely 0.28–0.30; Kijun ~0.27; Tenkan ~0.25–0.255.
• TK disequilibrium favors mean reversion toward Tenkan (≈0.252) but not necessarily a Cloud test. Expect selling pressure reasserts near Tenkan/Kijun confluence bands.

Step 9 — ADX/DI (qualitative)

• After the 11-07 failure and subsequent series of lower lows, ADX likely >20 and rising, with -DI above +DI: bearish trend strength building. Short-term +DI uptick today is countertrend and usually fades below resistance.

Step 10 — VWAP considerations

• Anchored VWAP from 11-07 high likely descends through ~0.27–0.28; price is well below, reinforcing that rallies into the 0.26–0.27 zone face cumulative overhead supply.

Step 11 — Key levels (heat map)

• Supports: 0.235–0.236 (fragile), 0.228–0.229 (11-19 close zone), 0.219 (11-19 low), 0.214 (10-10 low).
• Resistances: 0.247–0.253 (recent breakdown shelf and Tenkan proximity), 0.255–0.262 (61.8% retrace + 20-SMA + Bollinger midline), 0.268–0.272 (dense prior pivots), 0.296–0.300 (major supply), 0.311–0.322 (11-07 trap).

Step 12 — 24-hour scenario analysis

• Base case (55%): Reflexive bounce into the 0.249–0.255 supply, stalls, and fades back toward 0.236–0.240 by close. Rationale: mean reversion to Tenkan/overhead shelf meets dominant downtrend and supply.
• Bull case (25%): Squeeze extends to 0.258–0.262 (Bollinger mid / 20-SMA confluence) if momentum traders press the hammer follow-through; failure expected there unless volume expands decisively. Would still be a spot to fade with tight risk.
• Bear case (20%): Bounce fails early; a swift retest of 0.235 then 0.229; if broken, stops trip to 0.219. This path more likely if BTC/majors risk-off or volume remains heavy on offers.

Step 13 — Trade plan logic (Sell-the-rip)

• Thesis: Primary trend is down; momentum sub-50 RSI; OBV/volume distribution bearish; rallies into 0.249–0.255 are statistically good short entries with defined risk above 0.262–0.266. The 24h ATR accommodates a pop into that zone, providing favorable R:R.
• Entry: Short via limit on a push into 0.253 (mid of supply band). If not filled, consider scaling from 0.249 to 0.256; core plan uses 0.253.
• Target: 0.236 (near 78.6% retracement/support cluster) within 24h; this captures the likely fade back into the demand shelf.
• Implied R:R (if using a discretionary stop, not mandated here): Stop reference 0.263–0.266 (above 20-SMA/Mid-BB). Entry 0.253 → stop 0.2645 (avg) risk ≈ 0.0115; target 0.236 reward ≈ 0.017; R:R ≈ 1:1.5. Extension target if momentum deteriorates: 0.229–0.232.

Step 14 — Confirmation/invalidations

• Bearish setup confirmed by: rejection wicks in 0.249–0.255 with weakening intraday breadth/volume; failure to reclaim/hold above 0.256.
• Invalidation: Strong close above 0.262–0.266 on robust volume would negate the short-for-24h premise and shift bias to a deeper mean reversion toward 0.27–0.28.

Step 15 — Bottom line and 24h price path expectation

• Expect a continued relief pop early, tag supply around 0.253 ±0.003, then a fade toward 0.236 as the dominant downtrend reasserts. Probability-weighted path supports Sell-the-rally over Buy-the-dip for the next 24 hours.