Sell the pop: EOS poised to fade into 0.219–0.221, targeting a 0.200 liquidity sweep within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Bearish-to-sideways. Expect a pop into resistance followed by continuation lower. Probable range 0.198–0.222.
• Plan: Fade strength. Enter short on a rally into 0.219–0.221 with take-profit near 0.202. Invalidation if sustained break above 0.226–0.229.

1. Multi-timeframe structure and trend

• Daily (swing context): Clear primary downtrend since the October breakdown. Lower highs from 0.332 (10/13) → 0.322 (11/7) → 0.300/0.297 (11/10–11/11) → 0.273/0.267 (11/12–11/14). Price has now pressed into new local lows, printing 0.2002 intraday today.
• 4H (inferred): Descending channel with supply reloading on every test of the prior 4H swing lows turned resistance. The 4H rally on 11/7 to ~0.322 was sold aggressively; subsequent bounces have been weaker, indicating distribution.
• 1H (today): Early session bid from ~0.205 → 0.216–0.220, then a stall and lower high. Current near 0.211, below intraday VWAP, consistent with a bear rally that failed at resistance.

2. Key levels (confluence of pivots, prior highs/lows, round numbers)

• Resistance • 0.219–0.221: Today’s intraday supply (H: 0.2206; prior h17 spike 0.2194), and near today’s classic pivot P ≈ 0.2199. • 0.228–0.231: R1 ≈ 0.2285 from 11/20 H/L/C; also the 23.6% Fib retrace of the 11/7 high (0.322) to today’s low (~0.200), clustering at ~0.231. • 0.245–0.253: Former floor (11/13–11/15) turned ceiling; strong supply if reached (unlikely in 24h without catalyst).
• Support • 0.208–0.209: 1H intraday shelf and breakdown/re-test zone. • 0.200–0.202: Psychological round number, today’s session low 0.2002; expect responsive bids and liquidity hunting here. • 0.196–0.192: If 0.200 snaps, air pocket toward next logical liquidity. Not seen in this dataset recently; expect acceleration if triggered.

3. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily EMA20 ≈ 0.257 (approx), price well below: bearish regime.
• Daily SMA50 well above (~0.30+), Daily SMA200 far above (legacy >0.40). Strong top-down bear alignment (price < EMA20 < SMA50 < SMA200).
• 1H EMAs: Price oscillated back to the 1H 20/50 EMAs on the bounce, then rolled under. These often act as dynamic resistance in downtrends; next test near 0.216–0.219 is a sell zone.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (14): Low-30s area, hovering near oversold but not showing a confirmed bullish divergence versus the 11/19–11/20 closes. This supports only tactical mean reversion, not a durable reversal.
• 1H RSI: Recovered to mid-50s on the bounce then faded toward 45–50; momentum failing beneath resistance suggests rallies are for selling.
• MACD Daily: Below zero and below signal with only slight histogram contraction today; any bounce likely corrective. MACD 1H shows a small positive cross earlier that is already flattening.

5. Volatility and expected range

• Daily ATR(14) (est.): ~0.019–0.021 (≈9–10% of price). Expected 24h range from current 0.211 is roughly 0.192–0.232 absent news. Given resistance overhead and heavy supply, skew is to print the lower half of the range.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) Daily: Price rides the lower band; mid-band far above (~0.26). Lower band likely ~0.20–0.21. Touches without strong reversal candle point to trend persistence.

6. Volume/flow diagnostics

• Distribution signature: Rallies since 11/7 occur on lighter volume; sell-offs expand volume (10/10 capitulation, 11/7 spike-and-fade, 11/18–11/20 bleed). OBV trend remains down, confirming supply dominance.
• Intraday 11/21: Highest activity around the sell into 0.216–0.219 and the sweep toward 0.200, consistent with seller control at resistance and liquidity grabs at round numbers.

7. Fibonacci mapping (11/7 high 0.322 → 11/21 low ~0.200)

• 23.6%: ~0.231 (aligns with R1/R2 cluster, strong cap).
• 38.2%: ~0.247 (confluent with prior floor 0.245–0.253).
• 50%: ~0.261 (near the prior balance area around late Oct/early Nov). Current price is below the 0.236 retrace, indicative of weak bid.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative, multi-timeframe)

• Daily: Price below cloud; span A/B declining; conversion (Tenkan) likely ~0.23, base (Kijun) higher near ~0.25. Lagging span below price—full bearish stack.
• 1H: Price below cloud; cloud top projected near 0.219–0.222 over next candles—precisely where I want to fade a rally.

9. Classical pivots for 11/21 session (derived from 11/20 H/L/C: 0.2313/0.2113/0.2171)

• P ≈ 0.2199; R1 ≈ 0.2285; S1 ≈ 0.2085; R2 ≈ 0.2399; S2 ≈ 0.1999. Price is oscillating between S1 and P; a tag of P/R1 is higher-probability sell location, while S1/S2 is where to take profits on shorts.

10. Market structure and liquidity

• Breaker blocks: 0.219–0.221 is a fresh 1H bearish order block formed by rejection wicks and volume. Expect stop pools just above 0.221–0.223; an engineered pop into that zone is a prime short entry with tight invalidation.
• Liquidity below: Clean equal-lows zone 0.200–0.201 formed today; such equal lows tend to be swept. A move to 0.198–0.199 to run stops is highly plausible within 24h before any bounce.

11. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (60%): Early-session push to 0.219–0.221 meets supply; rejection sends price back to 0.208 first, then into 0.202; liquidity sweep toward 0.200–0.199; settlement ~0.206–0.209.
• Bear extension (25%): Weak bounce tops sub-0.218; breakdown of 0.200 opens 0.196–0.192 air pocket; close sub-0.200.
• Squeeze risk (15%): If 0.221–0.223 breaks on volume and holds above 0.226, fast run to 0.228–0.231 (R1/0.236 Fib). Still likely sold, but this invalidates a tight short and demands exit.

12. Strategy synthesis

• Momentum/trend: Short the rallies (trend following).
• Mean reversion: Because price is near the lower daily band and daily RSI ~30, do not chase shorts into 0.205–0.200; instead, let price revert to resistance and then fade.
• Confluence for entry: 1H cloud top ≈ 0.219–0.222 + Daily pivot P ≈ 0.2199 + intra-day supply highs 0.2194–0.2206 + 1H EMA cluster ≈ 0.216–0.219.
• Targeting: First target 0.205–0.206 (intraday shelf), main take-profit 0.202 ahead of 0.200 round-number liquidity.
• Invalidation: 0.226–0.229 close/hold above, or a strong 1H close above R1 with expanding volume.

13. Risk and execution notes

• Entry type: Passive limit sell at 0.2190–0.2210 or wait for a wick above 0.220 with a quick reversal candle (shooting star / bearish engulfing) for confirmation.
• Stop (not part of schema, for risk control): 0.2260–0.2275 (above the 0.221–0.223 stop pool and below R1 to keep R:R ≥ 2:1). Conservative alternative 0.2290 (above R1).
• Take-profit ladder (not part of schema): 50% at 0.206, 50% at 0.202. If 0.200 cracks on momentum, trail remainder for a potential 0.196 print, but base plan is to be flat into 0.202.
• Position sizing: Size for a 3–3.5% account risk at most given ATR and crypto volatility; expect 8–10% price swings intraday.

14. Why not buy here?

• While 0.200 is psychological support, the structure is a series of lower highs/lows with moving averages stacked bearishly and momentum below zero. Any long is countertrend and requires precision at 0.200 with tight stops; risk-reward is inferior to selling the rally into 0.219–0.221 where confluence is strongest.

Call

• Direction: Sell the rally.
• Optimal open: 0.2190 (in the 0.219–0.221 supply window).
• Target (24h): 0.2020. Expectation is a liquidity probe near 0.200 within the window.
• Invalidation: Sustained 1H close above 0.226–0.229 or a daily close above 0.231.

Probability-weighted path for next 24 hours

• High: 0.222–0.224 (test of supply; stretch 0.228 if squeeze).
• Low: 0.199–0.202 (stop sweep under 0.200 likely).
• Likely close: 0.206–0.209.