EOS: Buying the $0.20 Liquidity Sweep for a Pivot Reversion

Executive summary

• Regime: Persistent downtrend since early November, with a capitulation leg on Oct 10 and a lower-high/lower-low sequence continuing into Nov 22. Current price 0.2056 sits on top of round-number support at 0.200 and near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting short-term mean-reversion potential within a still-bearish higher timeframe trend.
• 24h view: High probability of a liquidity probe below/into 0.200 (S1) and a bounce toward 0.209–0.212 (daily pivot zone). Base case favors a tactical long from 0.200–0.203 with a conservative target under the pivot/resistance at ~0.212.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Daily structure: Clear descending channel from the Nov 7 spike (H: ~0.322) to today’s lows (~0.204). Successive lower highs: ~0.296 → 0.273 → 0.267 → 0.253 → 0.244 → 0.235 → 0.229 → 0.217 → 0.212. Successive lower lows: ~0.245 → 0.241 → 0.235 → 0.229 → 0.217 → 0.212 → 0.204. This maps a strong bearish trend but nearing a tactical inflection at major psychological 0.200.
• Hourly structure (last 24h): Sideways-to-down drift 0.212 → 0.205 with intraday lows near 0.204 and a brief attempt to reclaim 0.209 that failed. This creates a micro-range 0.204–0.209 with liquidity pockets just below 0.204 (stop runs) and supply overhead near 0.209–0.212.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily EMAs/SMA (approximations from closes):
  • 20D SMA ~0.253 (bearish slope). Price is ~2 SD below this mean.
  • 50D SMA ~0.30; 20 below 50 (bearish stack). Price below both → strong downtrend regime.
  • 10D EMA ~0.235; 5D EMA ~0.223. Price below the 5/10-day averages, implying stretched downside near-term.
• 1H MAs: Price oscillates below the 50/200 EMA on hourly, but distance has compressed versus earlier in the week, hinting at potential mean reversion even without a trend reversal.

3. Momentum

• RSI(14) Daily: ~29–33 range (oversold territory). Persistent sub-40 RSI with slight positive divergence vs. price since Nov 18 suggests seller momentum is waning.
• RSI(14) Hourly: ~38–42 most of the session, with dips to ~30 near 0.204 and quick recoveries, consistent with intraday bullish divergence.
• MACD Daily: Below zero with a negative histogram, but histogram bars are shrinking vs. earlier in the week, indicating decelerating bearish momentum.
• MACD Hourly: Close to a possible bullish cross around the flatline after several failed rally attempts; confirms potential for a modest bounce rather than a full trend change.
• Stochastic (Daily): Sub-20 and curling, typical of bounce setups within downtrends.

4. Volatility and bands/channels

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) Daily: Mid ~0.253; Lower ~0.200–0.201; Upper ~0.305. Price is riding the lower band; tags/closes near the lower band often precede 1–3 day mean-reversion bounces.
• Keltner Channels (20, ATR-based): Price pushing the lower Keltner edge; combined with a lower BB tag = elevated probability of a short-term bounce.
• ATR(14) Daily: ~0.013–0.015 (6–7% of price). Yesterday’s true range (0.2209–0.2000) was ~0.0209, toward the high end, followed by today’s inside-ish hourly flows; expect a 24h range of roughly 0.010–0.015, placing 0.200–0.212 well within reach.

5. Volume/flow

• Volume pattern: Heavier volume on down legs (Nov 18 ~2.08M; Nov 21 ~1.26M) signals distribution, but the last 24h hourly prints show thinning volume near lows—often a sign of seller fatigue around round-number support.
• OBV (qualitative): Downward since early Nov; flat-to-slightly rising intraday on small upticks, consistent with short-covering near 0.204–0.206.

6. Support/resistance and pivots

• Round-number magnet: 0.200 is the key psychological level and likely liquidity pool.
• Daily pivot levels (calculated from Nov 21 H/L/C = 0.2209/0.2000/0.2122):
  • Pivot P ≈ 0.2110
  • S1 ≈ 0.2012
  • S2 ≈ 0.1902
  • R1 ≈ 0.2220 Price is between S1 and P; a common path is an early S1 test followed by mean reversion toward P.
• Horizontal supply: 0.209–0.212 (intraday rejection zone and daily pivot), 0.217 (prior day’s high), 0.228–0.235 (late-week supply shelf).
• Horizontal demand: 0.204 (today’s low region), 0.201–0.200 (S1 and round number), 0.190 (S2 risk if 0.200 breaks on momentum).

7. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Swing reference: Nov 7 high 0.322 to current lows ~0.205 → range ≈ 0.117.
  • 23.6% retrace ≈ 0.233
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.249
  • 50% ≈ 0.263 Near-term bounce targets below 0.233 are conservative; 0.211–0.217 fit a first-stage reaction.

8. Pattern reads

• Descending channel/falling wedge characteristics on the daily: contracting swings with waning downside momentum; falling wedges often resolve with countertrend pops before the dominant downtrend resumes.
• Candlesticks: Multiple small-bodied hourly candles near 0.205 with lower wicks indicate demand absorption; lack of wide-body follow-through on new lows is consistent with a short-term bounce attempt.

9. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Price below Kumo, below Tenkan and Kijun on daily and 4H → bearish regime.
• However, Tenkan is flattening on 1H, a frequent precursor to equilibrium tests (moves back toward Kijun/VWAP areas ~0.208–0.211).

10. VWAP/mean reversion (intraday)

• Intraday VWAP (approx) sits higher than last trade (~0.207–0.208 zone from today’s distribution). Trading below VWAP with declining momentum often mean-reverts toward it absent fresh catalysts.

11. ADX/Trend strength

• ADX Daily ~27–32 (rising), confirming a strong prevailing downtrend. Within such regimes, oversold bounces are typically tactical and fade near resistance. This supports a modest long scalp, not a trend reversal bet.

12. Probabilistic 24h path

• Base case (60%): Liquidity sweep into 0.200–0.202 (S1/round-number), bounce to 0.209–0.212 (daily pivot). Close near 0.209–0.211.
• Bear case (25%): Clean break of 0.200 with acceleration to 0.196–0.190 (S2) before a reflex rebound; would invalidate the tight long scalp unless re-entered lower.
• Bull case (15%): Swift reclaim above 0.212 pivot and hold → extension to 0.216–0.220; still below R1 and within the broader downtrend.

13. Risk management and execution plan

• Strategy type: Countertrend mean-reversion long within a dominant downtrend; tight risk controls are essential.
• Entry: Staggered/limit near 0.202 (inside the 0.200–0.203 demand pocket). This aligns with S1 and the lower Bollinger band vicinity.
• Take profit (24h): 0.2118 (just under the daily pivot 0.2110–0.2122 and intraday supply to improve fill probability).
• Suggested stop (not part of the requested output but critical): 0.1984 (below 0.200 sweep and under lower band), yielding R:R ≈ (0.2118–0.2020)/(0.2020–0.1984) ≈ 0.0098/0.0036 ≈ 2.7.
• Management: If price reaches 0.209–0.210, consider moving stop to breakeven; if 0.212 breaks and holds on volume, partials can trail toward 0.216–0.220. If 0.200 breaks decisively with rising volume, exit quickly and reassess near 0.196–0.190.

14. Cross-check of tools and convergence

• Oversold oscillators (RSI/Stoch) + lower Bollinger/Keltner touch + pivot S1 at 0.201 + round-number 0.200 + hourly bullish divergence + VWAP reversion target near 0.208–0.211 = confluence for a tactical bounce.
• However, macro trend filters (20/50 SMA stack, ADX>25, price under cloud) warn against aggressive upside expectations; thus the take-profit is conservative under pivot resistance.

Conclusion

• Tactical long bias for the next 24 hours, targeting a bounce from 0.200–0.203 into the 0.209–0.212 resistance band. Broader trend remains down; treat as a scalp with disciplined risk.