EOS poised to crack the floor: Sell the bounce into 0.179–0.182, target the 0.167 liquidity pocket

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for EOS (USD) using the provided OHLCV data up to 2025-12-12 21:57 UTC.

1. Market structure and trend (Daily and Hourly)

• Primary trend: Strong, persistent downtrend from mid-September (~0.49) to mid-December (~0.175). Sequence of lower highs and lower lows is intact. No confirmed trend reversal structure.
• Recent key swings (Daily):
  • Oct 10 capitulation leg: 0.3869 → 0.2641 on heavy volume; subsequent reactive bounce topped at 0.3324 (Oct 13), then resumed markdown. Classic “distribution → markdown” profile.
  • Nov 7 relief rally to 0.3116 failed quickly; lower highs since then near 0.3005 (Nov 10) and 0.2735 (Nov 11 close), then a stair-step down to sub-0.20 by Dec 1.
  • December action shows clustering between 0.176–0.196 with the floor repeatedly probed: 0.17499 (Dec 5 low), 0.17671 (Dec 7 close), 0.17316 (Dec 12 intraday low). Horizontal support is weakening via multiple tests; risk of a breakdown increases.
• Hourly (last two sessions):
  • 10:00–12:00 UTC highs repeatedly capped around 0.1823–0.1824 (visible supply). A hard breakdown 15:00–16:00 from ~0.1808 to ~0.1732. Subsequent rebounds are shallow, failing near 0.1758–0.1761. Market is making lower intraday highs; sellers in control.
  • 21:00 hour printed 0.17612 high then faded; current at ~0.17574, below intraday supply zone.

2. Support/resistance mapping (confluence zones)

• Immediate resistance (intraday): 0.1761–0.1768 (hourly lower-high shelf), 0.1795–0.1808 (breakdown origin), 0.1818–0.1824 (morning high cluster and hourly supply), 0.187–0.190 (daily micro range top), 0.195–0.1965 (daily supply and band mid-to-upper region).
• Support (nearby): 0.1730–0.1745 (intraday low cluster; includes 0.17316 today), 0.1700 round, 0.1670–0.1680 (Fib extension cluster; see below), 0.1630–0.1640 (1.618 extension) if momentum accelerates.
• Observations: Multiple taps of 0.173–0.176 without a decisive bounce suggest buyer exhaustion; thin liquidity pocket below 0.173 could allow swift continuation into the 0.167–0.168 pocket.

3. Moving averages (Daily)

• 7-EMA: ~0.181 (estimate using last 7 closes). Price ~0.1757 is below 7-EMA → short-term bearish.
• 20-SMA: ~0.193 (approximate from last 20 closes). Price well below 20-SMA and slope is negative → trend continuation bias.
• 50-SMA: ~0.24 (rough estimate from the Nov range). Deeply overhead → no threat of golden cross; bearish structure.
• Implication: MA stack (price < 7-EMA < 20-SMA < 50-SMA) confirms trend alignment to the downside.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) Daily (approx): hovering ~29–33. Multiple tests near 30 without strong divergences → bearish momentum with possible minor mean-reversion bounces, but no confirmed reversal.
• Hourly RSI: bounced from oversold on the 16:00 breakdown but capped under neutral midline; suggests rallies are corrective in a downtrend.
• Stochastics (qualitative): stuck low with shallow resets, consistent with a grindy downtrend.

5. MACD (Daily)

• MACD line below signal and below zero. Histogram negative but not expanding aggressively; typical for a trend continuation after a minor pause. No bullish cross.

6. Bollinger Bands (Daily, 20, 2)

• Mid-band (20-SMA) ~0.193; lower band estimated near 0.176–0.177; price is hugging/lurking just below the lower band.
• Bands are downward-sloped and moderately expanded; in trending moves this often rides the band rather than mean-reverting immediately. A marginal bounce toward 0.179–0.182 can occur, but the path of least resistance remains down.

7. ATR and expected 24h range

• ATR(14D) estimate: ~0.008–0.009. With current 0.1757, a typical 24h range spans roughly 0.167–0.184. Given directional skew, probability-weighted path leans toward exploring 0.170–0.168 before any larger bounce.

8. Fibonacci analysis

• Swing Nov 7 high (0.3116) to today’s low (~0.1732):
  • 23.6% ~0.206; 38.2% ~0.228; 50% ~0.242; all well above, confirming strong markdown. Reversion targets lie higher but are unlikely to be reached in 24h absent a regime shift.
• Micro swing Dec 9 high (0.1927) → Dec 12 low (0.1732):
  • 1.272 extension ~0.167; 1.618 extension ~0.163. If 0.173 breaks, 0.167 becomes a magnet. Confluence with pivot math below.

9. Ichimoku (Daily)

• Price below Kumo; bearish future cloud; Tenkan below Kijun; Chikou below price and cloud. Classic full-bear alignment. Tenkan (9-period mid) ~0.185; Kijun (26-period mid) likely around ~0.245; both above price, acting as overhead resistance. No mean-reversion signal.

10. Volume, OBV, A/D

• Volume has not shown a climactic spike on the most recent lows; rather, it’s moderate-to-soft, consistent with controlled markdown and supply stepping in at lower highs.
• OBV trend is down; no clear positive divergence at the new intraday low. Accumulation/Distribution mirrors the downtrend; no obvious absorption footprint.

11. Pivot points (using 2025-12-11 H/L/C: 0.184419 / 0.178177 / 0.181675)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.18142; R1 ≈ 0.18467; S1 ≈ 0.17843; S2 ≈ 0.17518; R2 ≈ 0.18767.
• Today’s action tagged below S2 (printed ~0.17316), signaling bearish extension beyond standard pivot bounds. That often precedes either a brief snap-back to S1/S2 on light volume or, if supply persists, a continuation leg to a Fibonacci extension (0.167–0.168).

12. Pattern diagnostics

• Descending triangle on daily/mid-timeframe: flat-to-gently descending base 0.173–0.176; series of lower highs from 0.196 → 0.192 → 0.187 → 0.182. Breakdown probability is elevated in prevailing bear trends.
• Candlestick context: Today’s daily is a red candle with a lower shadow but not a classic hammer (body not near the top of range). Lacks the typical reversal signal strength.
• Regression channel (last ~30 sessions): Negative slope; price pressing lower boundary, but with no momentum divergence yet.

13. Wyckoff and liquidity read

• Structure looks like continued markdown phase post prior distribution. No selling climax (SC) + automatic rally (AR) + secondary test (ST) sequence yet. Instead: repeated weak bounces and loss of support layers → continuation risk dominates.
• Liquidity vacuum below 0.173: Multiple equal-lows can attract stop runs; once tripped, price can quickly slide to the 1.272 extension near 0.167.

14. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈55–60%): Minor bounce toward 0.178–0.180 on short-covering, stalls under 0.182, then rolls over to crack 0.173 and probes 0.168–0.167 (Fib 1.272, prior liquidity pocket). Close likely sub-0.176.
• Bear acceleration (≈20–25%): Direct break of 0.173 without meaningful bounce; momentum pushes to 0.167 then attempts 0.163–0.164 (1.618 extension) if broader crypto risk deteriorates.
• Bull surprise (≈15–20%): Squeeze above 0.1824 into 0.186–0.190, tagging mid-band, before supply returns. Requires fresh catalyst; currently not evidenced by volume/structure.

15. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Bias: Sell rallies in a downtrend where multiple tools align: price below 7/20/50 MAs, bearish Ichimoku stack, RSI not diverging, pivot S2 breach, descending triangle base at risk, and clear intraday supply zones at 0.179–0.182.
• Optimal entry logic: Use a patient limit sell on a mean-reversion bounce into the breakdown origin/supply shelf to improve reward-to-risk.
  • Primary entry: 0.1798 (in the 0.1795–0.1808 supply pocket; realistic tag on a standard ATR bounce).
  • Add-on (if allowed; informational): 0.1822–0.1824 (hourly cap zone) with tight risk.
• Profit target for the next 24h: 0.1672 (Fib 1.272 confluence; just above 0.167 to front-run bids). This aligns with ATR-projected lower band and likely stop run below 0.173.
• Risk management (informational, not in fields): Protective stop suggested near 0.1836 (above 0.1824 supply + buffer). From 0.1798, risk ≈ 0.0038; reward ≈ 0.0126 to 0.1672, R:R ≈ 3.3:1.
• If price fails to bounce to entry: Optional chase only on decisive break and retest of 0.173 as resistance. Otherwise, patience for a weak bounce is preferable.

16. Why not long here?

• No confirmed bullish divergence on momentum or OBV; price below all key MAs and under the daily lower Bollinger band with bands pointing down; repeated failed rallies at 0.182 suggest supply. Probability of breakdown > probability of reversal within 24h.

17. Summary of confluences for the short

• Structure: Lower highs + descending triangle base.
• Indicators: Bearish MA stack, bearish Ichimoku, MACD negative, RSI non-divergent.
• Levels: Hourly supply 0.179–0.182; supports 0.173 then 0.167.
• Volatility: ATR supports a 0.008–0.009 swing; 0.1798 → 0.1672 falls within 1.4–1.6× ATR, achievable on a breakdown day.
• Pivots/Fibs: S2 breach today; next magnet sits around Fib 1.272 ~0.167.

Conclusion: Short the bounce. Expect a retest/break of 0.173 within 24 hours and a drive toward 0.167.