EOS Coils Above Support: Prime for a Push into 0.169–0.170 — Buy the Dip

Executive summary and 24h view

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bullish within a developing short-term uptrend, but still inside a broader downtrend. Expect a grind higher toward 0.1686–0.1703 resistance, with dips likely bought above 0.161–0.162.
• Expected range: 0.1610 – 0.1705. Base case: retest of 0.1686 (R1) and a probing attempt at 0.1700–0.1703.
• Tactics: Buy the dip near 0.1638–0.1642; take profits just below the round/structural cap at 0.1700.

1. Market regime and structure

• Higher-timeframe context: EOS has been in a persistent downtrend since late September (c. 0.41) with large step-downs in October–November and follow-through into mid-December. The strong capitulation leg printed new cycle lows around 0.14736 on Dec 18.
• Recent structure: After the Dec 18 low, price made a sequence of higher closes (Dec 19: 0.16026; Dec 20: 0.16832) followed by a shallow pullback (Dec 21–22 around 0.1627–0.1648). Today (Dec 23) intraday showed a series of higher lows on the hourly and a controlled pullback, maintaining above the 0.161–0.162 support shelf.
• Interpretation: Short-term trend reversal attempt inside a dominant higher-timeframe downtrend. The immediate path is constructive while 0.161–0.162 holds.

2. Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Supports
  • 0.1610–0.1620: Intraday hourly base (today’s session low 0.16112) and daily 38.2% retracement cluster (see Fibonacci below).
  • 0.1588–0.1590: 50% retracement from the Dec swing (0.14736–0.17026).
  • 0.1560–0.1565: 61.8% retracement and structural invalidation for the immediate up-swing.
• Resistances
  • 0.1663–0.1664: Intraday high zone from today; first supply shelf.
  • 0.1686–0.1703: Pivot R1 (0.16859) and Dec 20 swing high (0.17026). This is the key cap for the next 24h.
  • 0.176–0.178: Prior daily congestion and lower Bollinger mid/upper band approach; stretch target only on a strong breakout.

3. Moving averages (daily)

• 10-day SMA (approx): ~0.1615. Price (0.1648) is above the 10-SMA → short-term momentum positive.
• 20-day SMA (approx): ~0.175–0.178, still above price → medium-term trend remains down.
• EMA crossover posture: Fast EMAs (5–9) have likely curled up and are close to/above the 10-SMA; the 13–20 EMAs remain above/currently converging. This is typical of an early recovery phase; a full bull posture would require reclaiming the 20SMA cluster near ~0.175+. Near-term tailwind, medium-term headwind.

4. Momentum studies

• RSI (14D, approx): Mid-40s to high-40s. Recovered from oversold (<30) around Dec 17–18 and now building positive slope. Not overbought; room to grind higher.
• Stochastic (daily, qualitative): Lifted from deeply oversold and likely crossed up; momentum tailwind in early stages.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): MACD line still below zero but histogram improving (less negative). A zero-line test would occur on a push toward the 0.175 area; near-term indicates easing downside pressure and scope for continuation of the bounce.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR (14D, approx): Contracting from ~0.012–0.015 to nearer ~0.008–0.010. Reduced volatility suggests controlled mean-reversion/climb rather than a large impulsive move.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~0.175; lower band around ~0.162. Price is oscillating just above the lower band and has re-entered the band—typical of a stabilization phase. Band width narrowing implies a modest squeeze; initial move is often toward the mid-band over multiple sessions. For the next 24h, expect a move toward upper third of the lower half (i.e., 0.168–0.170).

6. Fibonacci mapping (Dec 18 swing low to Dec 20 swing high)

• Swing: Low 0.14736 → High 0.17026. Pullback low printed 0.16270 (Dec 21), right on the 38.2% retracement (0.1617–0.1627 zone accounting for rounding) and held.
• Levels
  • 38.2%: ~0.1617–0.1627 (held; constructive).
  • 50%: ~0.1590; 61.8%: ~0.1560.
• Implication: Respect of 38.2% after a strong countertrend leg supports a continuation attempt back to retest the high at 0.1703.

7. Intraday (hourly) posture, VWAP and pivots

• Hourly trend: Sequence of higher lows across today’s session (notably 06:00–14:00 UTC windows), with a push to 0.1663 and a controlled pullback to 0.164–0.165.
• VWAP (qualitative): With heaviest intraday volumes around 09:00 (~0.1620) and 21:00 (~0.1653), a rough blended VWAP sits around ~0.164–0.165. Current price slightly above this → buyers in near-term control.
• Classical daily pivots (using Dec 22 H/L/C: 0.168791/0.161420/0.164804)
  • Pivot (PP): (H+L+C)/3 = 0.165005.
  • R1: 2×PP − L = 0.16859.
  • S1: 2×PP − H = 0.16122.
  • R2: PP + (H−L) = 0.17238; S2: 0.15763.
• Today’s action has respected S1 and traded around PP, leaning toward R1 into the close → moderately bullish bias for a test of 0.1686.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price remains below the cloud (bearish higher timeframe), but Tenkan (9) likely ~0.161–0.163 and Kijun (26) ~0.188–0.192.
• Price reclaimed/hovering around Tenkan → early risk-on signal. Kijun far above → significant resistance remains above 0.185–0.19.

9. Volume, OBV, and Wyckoff read

• Volume: After the mid-December sell climax, volumes contracted into a quieter consolidation; today’s intraday spikes aligned with up-swings rather than sell-offs, indicating modest demand.
• OBV (qualitative): Stabilizing since Dec 19; mild accumulation signature.
• Wyckoff lens: Post-climax AR (automatic rally) into Dec 20, secondary test into Dec 21–22 held above 38.2% retrace, now showing signs of absorption below 0.166–0.168. This pattern favors a markup toward 0.170 if supply continues to thin.

10. Candlestick/price action nuances

• Recent daily bodies are small with lower wicks around 0.161–0.162 and closes creeping higher (Dec 21→23). This denotes dip-buying and supply absorption at support.
• Today’s hourly prints: Tight-bodied consolidation around 0.1648–0.1653 with higher lows suggests a coil beneath resistance; such coils often resolve with a test of the overhead level (0.166–0.1686) before either rejection or breakout.

11. Synthesis of signals

• Bullish factors: Respect of 38.2% retrace, price above 10SMA and Tenkan, improving MACD histogram, RSI rising from oversold, hourly higher lows, VWAP reclaimed, PP held with bias toward R1.
• Bearish/constraints: Price still below 20SMA and the daily cloud; broader downtrend dominates; 0.1686–0.1703 is a well-defined supply shelf and may cap the first attempt.
• Net: Higher probability of a 0.1686 test and a tag of the 0.169–0.170 zone within 24h. Favor long on dips with profit-taking just below round-number resistance.

12. Risk, invalidation, and trade management

• Invalidation for the immediate long idea: Sustained break below 0.1610 (loss of S1 and the 38.2% retrace shelf) would re-open 0.1588 and 0.1560.
• Reward-to-risk (illustrative): Entry 0.1639; soft stop concept 0.1610 (−0.0029); target 0.1692 (+0.0053) → ~1.8R. Probability-weighted profile is attractive given the confluence into R1/prev high.

24-hour price path projection

• Base case (60%): Range 0.163–0.1695, with a late-session push into 0.1686–0.1695 and stall below 0.1703.
• Bullish alt (25%): Clean breakout above 0.1703 → extension to 0.1718–0.1724 (R2) before mean-reverting.
• Bearish alt (15%): Early fade to 0.161–0.162; brief liquidity sweep, then grind back to 0.165–0.166.

Conclusion

• Setup favors buying the dip near 0.164 with a take-profit just under 0.170 to front-run logical supply. The larger trend remains down, so treat this as a tactical long rather than a swing reversal until 0.175–0.178 and the 20SMA are reclaimed.