EOS: Fade the 0.161 Pivot — Short the Bounce into Overhead Supply

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Bearish-to-neutral. Expect a retest of overhead supply around 0.160–0.162 followed by mean-reversion lower toward 0.152–0.153 unless 0.162–0.165 breaks on convincing volume.
• Plan: Fade the bounce. Optimal short entry near the daily pivot R1 cluster (~0.1615). First downside magnet is S1 (~0.1521). If 0.162–0.165 reclaims decisively, the short thesis is invalid.

1. Multi-timeframe price structure and trend

• Higher time frame (daily): Strong primary downtrend from October with successive lower highs and lower lows. December made a new swing low at 0.14298 (12/18), followed by a weak bounce peaking at 0.16832 (12/20) and then a drift lower into 0.150–0.153. Current close 0.15775 keeps price below 10/20/50-day moving averages and under major supply set by the 12/20–12/23 highs (0.166–0.168). Structure resembles a descending triangle with a flat-ish base in the 0.149–0.153 zone and compressing lower highs (0.1683 → 0.1664 → 0.1634). This is typically continuation-bearish unless price reclaims the descending trendline/last lower high.
• Medium time frame (4h proxy from hourly): Today carved a modest up-channel from ~0.1507 to ~0.1596, but momentum moderated into the New York afternoon. The most recent push set a marginal higher high intraday (0.1596) below daily supply (0.160–0.165), suggesting a likely upthrust into resistance rather than a trend reversal.
• Intraday (1h): Persistent grind higher early session, then stall just beneath prior resistance. Price is oscillating around intraday VWAP and the 1h midline, with small-bodied candles in the last few hours—classic pause below resistance.

2. Key levels and confluence

• Supports: 0.1521 (classic S1 pivot from today), 0.1500–0.1504 (session base/psych), 0.1473 (12/18 close), 0.143. If 0.150 gives way, vacuum down to 0.146–0.143 is likely.
• Resistances: 0.1596 intraday spike, 0.1600 round, 0.1615 (pivot R1), 0.1634 (12/25 high), 0.1664 (12/23 high), 0.1683 (12/20 high). The 0.160–0.166 band is a dense supply shelf and aligns with multiple tools (pivots, prior highs, moving averages).
• Daily classical pivots (using H 0.15964, L 0.15017, C 0.15775): P=0.15586, R1=0.16154, R2=0.16532, S1=0.15207, S2=0.14639. Price is currently near/below P and beneath R1, favoring “sell-the-rip” toward S1.
• Fibonacci (Dec swing low 0.14298 to swing high 0.16832): 38.2% ≈ 0.1585, 50% ≈ 0.1557, 61.8% ≈ 0.1528. Price is pinned between 38.2% and 50% with the 61.8% confluence near S1. This supports a fade from 0.160–0.161 back to 0.152–0.153.

3. Momentum and trend indicators

• Moving averages: SMA5 ≈ 0.1575 (price roughly equal), SMA10 ≈ 0.1591 (price below), SMA20 > price (est. ~0.17), SMA50 >> price (bearish). The near-term flattening of the 5-day against downward 10/20-day slopes indicates a weak bounce within a dominant downtrend.
• RSI (14D): Roughly 38–40 by manual tally—below 50, above 30. Bearish/sluggish momentum with room to mean-revert both ways but more often capped under resistance until RSI crosses 50+.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Histogram negative and narrowing; signal lines flat-to-mildly curling. Typical of bear-market rallies; needs a decisive expansion above zero to signal trend change. Not there yet.
• Stochastics: On daily, lifting off oversold but not confirming a breakout; on 1h, likely near/above neutral after the day’s climb, suggesting risk of an overbought read on any small push into 0.160–0.162.

4. Volatility, bands, and range

• Bollinger Bands (20,2 daily): Midline near the 20D SMA (~0.17). Current price sits near the lower band region (upper teens), consistent with a bear-channel. Implication: pops tend to fail at or below the midline; first resistance band sits in 0.160–0.165.
• ATR (recent daily): Contracting from October’s shock. Implied 24h range ≈ 0.009–0.012 (6–8%). Today’s H-L ~0.0095 corroborates a 0.150–0.162 expectation into tomorrow.

5. Volume and flow

• Historical: The October and early November breakdowns saw heavy distribution. December’s bounce attempts on lighter volume lacked follow-through.
• Today: Hourly burst around 11:00 suggests short-term buying interest, but subsequent pushes lacked volume expansion. OBV is still depressed with only a minor uptick today; no accumulation signature comparable to past distribution days.

6. Pattern diagnostics and advanced lenses

• Price action/candles: Recent daily candles near the lows show indecision (doji/short-bodied) without a strong reversal pattern. Today’s intraday small-bodied closes under resistance are characteristic of a pause before either rejection or a low-energy poke-and-fail.
• Market structure: Lower highs remain intact; base holding near 0.150. This compressing structure is a typical descending triangle. Probability-weighting favors a breakdown if the base is tested repeatedly, unless a decisive reclaim above 0.166–0.168 occurs.
• Wyckoff framing: The 0.160–0.166 zone looks like a local supply shelf. Today’s approach toward 0.160–0.162 sets up a potential Upthrust (UT) into resistance, then a return into the value area (0.153–0.156).
• Elliott wave (micro inference): The bump from 0.1507 to 0.1596 appears as a 3-leg corrective form (a-b-c). A final shallow push to 0.160–0.162 would complete the correction before another downswing.
• Ichimoku: Price below the Kumo with a likely bearish cloud ahead; Tenkan could be curling up but Kijun above price—overall bearish regime. Expect rejections at/near Kijun/cloud underside.
• VWAP/Anchored VWAP: Intraday VWAP sits near mid-0.156–0.157; price oscillated around it. An anchored VWAP from the 12/18 low would now run below today’s price, but the anchored VWAP from late-Nov breakdowns would be overhead—consistent with resistance.
• Pivots vs. Fibs vs. Structure: R1 (0.1615) aligns with round 0.161, prior intraday supply, and just above Fib 38.2% (0.1585), making 0.160–0.162 an asymmetric short zone; S1 (0.1521) aligns with Fib 61.8% and prior micro-bases.

7. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (≈55%): Early-session nudge into 0.160–0.1615, failure/rejection, drift down to 0.152–0.153 (S1/Fib 61.8%). Close near 0.154–0.156.
• Bullish alt (≈25%): Break and hold above 0.162 with rising volume, squeeze through 0.165 toward 0.166–0.168 (R2/previous daily highs). Would transition bias to neutral for 24–48h.
• Bearish tail (≈20%): No retest; immediate fade from current ~0.158 back to 0.152 and probe 0.150. If 0.150 breaks on momentum, extension to 0.146–0.147 (S2) possible, though less likely within 24h without news.

8. Risk management cues (for context)

• Invalidations for the short idea: 1) Hourly close above 0.1628 and daily reclaim of 0.165. 2) Volume expansion on breakouts with OBV confirming.
• If short triggers near 0.161: A prudent protective stop would sit above 0.1655–0.166 (beyond R2/12/23 high), targeting 0.152 first, then 0.150 if momentum accelerates. Risk/reward from 0.161 to 0.152 is ~1:1.9 with a 0.166 stop; extension to 0.150 improves R multiple.

Conclusion

• The dominant daily downtrend, sub-10/20/50 SMAs posture, RSI sub-50, and the dense 0.160–0.166 supply band argue for selling strength rather than chasing upside. Confluence of pivot R1 (0.1615), nearby prior highs, and Fib structure makes 0.160–0.162 a favorable short zone. First objective aligns with S1/Fib 61.8% at ~0.152.

24h price path (most likely): Attempt into 0.160–0.162 → rejection → mean reversion to 0.152–0.153.