EOS Near 0.09: Failed Bounce Under Heavy Resistance Signals Another Support Retest

Market regime & structure (Daily)

• Current price: 0.09128
• The daily series shows a persistent downtrend from early Nov (~0.25–0.31) to Feb 1 (~0.091). That’s a large multi-month drawdown, indicating a bearish primary trend.
• Key inflection: 2026-01-16 big breakdown candle (close ~0.139) followed by continuation to ~0.10 and then new low around 0.08445 (2026-01-31 low).
• The bounce into Feb 1 is weak and remains well below prior breakdown levels.

Trend analysis (moving-average logic, price location)

• Even without computing exact MA values, price action implies:
  • Short-term MA (e.g., 10/20D) likely below medium MA (50D) and all are likely sloping down.
  • Price is trading far below the former consolidation zone (~0.15–0.17), so trend-following bias remains bearish.
• Lower highs / lower lows dominate. The last notable lower-high zone is around 0.111–0.115 (Jan 23–28 area) which rejected and rolled over into the Jan 31 flush.

Support/Resistance mapping (horizontal levels)

Immediate supports

• 0.0910–0.0913: current micro-support (hourly closes clustering here).
• 0.0904–0.0907: hourly swing support (seen around 22:00–23:00 on Jan 31 and again intraday Feb 1).
• 0.0844–0.0850: major daily swing low (Jan 31). If broken, opens air pocket risk.

Overhead resistances (sell zones)

• 0.0927–0.0953: intraday supply / bounce cap (Feb 1 highs ~0.09529).
• 0.0981–0.1026: prior day range / breakdown continuation zone (Jan 29–30 highs).
• 0.1067–0.1123: larger resistance band (Jan 20–28 consolidation/rollover).

Interpretation: price is stuck below multiple resistance shelves, so rallies are statistically more likely to be sold until a reclaim occurs (especially >0.102–0.112).

Volatility & range behavior (Daily + Hourly)

• Daily: large ranges into Jan 31 (low 0.08445, close 0.09239) suggest capitulation-like volatility, often followed by choppy mean reversion.
• Hourly (last ~24h): range roughly 0.09099–0.09531; volatility is moderate but directional follow-through is weak (repeated rejection from 0.094–0.095).

Candlestick / price action signals

Daily

• Jan 31 formed a long lower wick day (flush to 0.084 then rebound to 0.092). That can be a short-term exhaustion signal, but one wick does not reverse a primary downtrend.
• Feb 1 (partial daily) shows failure to expand above 0.095 and drift back to 0.091—suggesting buyers can’t sustain the rebound.

Hourly (microstructure)

• Clear rejection cluster near 0.0946–0.0953 (multiple attempts, no breakout).
• After the rejection, price stair-stepped lower to 0.091–0.092, indicating a descending intraday channel.

Momentum (RSI/MACD-style inference)

• Given the magnitude of the downtrend, daily momentum has likely been oversold at points, but the rebound is not strong enough to imply a sustained momentum reversal.
• Hourly momentum peaked during the 0.0953 test and then rolled over; this typically aligns with bearish divergence behavior (price fails to make higher highs after impulse, then breaks local support).

Volume / participation

• Biggest daily participation spikes occurred during the breakdown period (e.g., Jan 16–17). That often marks distribution / forced selling.
• Recent hourly volumes show bursts at local highs (e.g., around 10:00 with the push toward 0.0953), then fading—consistent with liquidity used to exit on bounces.

Pattern & scenario framework (next 24 hours)

Base case (higher probability): bearish continuation / retest

• Price failed at 0.0953 and is compressing near 0.091.
• In a broader downtrend, this most often resolves as:
  1. Retest 0.0904–0.0907, then
  2. Potential wick to 0.088–0.089, and if selling accelerates,
  3. A deeper retest toward 0.085–0.086.

Alternative case (lower probability): bounce within range

• If 0.0904–0.0910 holds firmly, a mean-reversion bounce could revisit 0.0938–0.0946, but the larger structure suggests this would still be a sellable rally unless price reclaims 0.098–0.102 with acceptance.

24h directional bias: Down / range-to-down, with elevated chance of a support retest.

Trade thesis (combining signals)

• Primary trend: bearish (dominant weight).
• Overhead resistance stack: dense (0.093–0.095 then 0.098–0.103).
• Intraday: rejection at 0.0953 + drift back to 0.091 = failed bounce.
• Therefore: favor Sell (short) on a rebound into resistance to improve R:R rather than shorting the exact lows.

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Price movement prediction (next 24h)

• Most likely path: 0.091 → 0.0905 retest → attempt back to ~0.092–0.093 → another fade.
• Expected 24h range (probabilistic): 0.0885–0.0945.
• Break condition: sustained acceptance above 0.0953 would weaken the short thesis and raise odds of 0.098–0.102.