EOS at the Bottom of a Bear Flag: Rejection at $0.094–$0.096 Points to Another Support Retest

Market structure (top-down)

1D trend & regime

• Primary trend: Strong bear market since early Nov.
  • Peak zone (Nov 7): ~0.322 high.
  • Current: 0.09094.
  • Drawdown from 0.322 → 0.0909 is roughly -72% (deep downtrend).
• Swing structure: Persistent lower highs / lower lows.
  • Mid-Jan breakdown: 0.172 → 0.139 (Jan 16) with very large volume (capitulation-like impulse), followed by continuation to 0.08445 low (Jan 31).
• Recent 1D behavior (last ~7 days):
  • Jan 31: sharp flush to 0.08445, close 0.09239.
  • Feb 1–4: sideways-to-down, repeatedly failing to hold above ~0.094–0.096.
  • This looks like a bear flag / weak consolidation after a breakdown rather than a clear reversal.

Key daily levels (S/R)

• Immediate resistance: 0.0945–0.0964 (Feb 2 high 0.09641; intraday prints near 0.09456).
• Overhead supply zones:
  • 0.1005–0.1026 (Jan 30–31 area; breakdown origin)
  • 0.108–0.115 (late Jan range; prior support now resistance)
• Immediate supports:
  • 0.0890–0.0885 (intraday low area; Feb 4 low 0.08895)
  • 0.0844–0.0850 (Jan 31 capitulation low)

Intraday (1H) price action & pattern read

• 1H sequence (Feb 4): Early push to 0.09456, then distribution and steady fade.
• Lower highs after the morning high; price transitioned from 0.094–0.093 range down into 0.091–0.089, then a modest bounce, then faded back to 0.09094.
• Structure:
  • Range boundaries for the session are roughly 0.0946 (top) and 0.0889 (bottom).
  • Current price sits in the lower half of the range, consistent with bearish control.

Momentum indicators (inference from sequence)

(Exact indicator values require computation; conclusions are derived from observed swing behavior.)

RSI / Momentum

• The market experienced a large multi-week decline; such conditions typically keep daily RSI depressed and rallies get sold.
• On 1H, the inability to sustain above 0.093–0.094 and repeated pushes lower suggests bearish momentum dominance (RSI likely below/around midline most of the day).

MACD / Trend strength

• Given the prolonged downtrend and recent weak bounce, MACD on higher timeframes is likely still negative or only slightly improving—typical of bear market relief bounces that fail at nearby resistance.

Volatility & risk context

• Daily ranges have expanded during breakdown days (Jan 16, Jan 31), consistent with high-volatility bearish regime.
• Current 1H range (0.0946–0.0889) is ~6.0% peak-to-trough intraday—still volatile for such a low-priced asset.
• In high-vol bear regimes, probability favors continuation to retest lows unless price reclaims major resistance with strong volume.

Volume / participation (what stands out)

• 1D shows capitulation-like spikes (Jan 16 volume ~3.85M, Jan 17 ~2.97M) followed by lower-volume drifting—often a setup for bear flags.
• 1H volume is sporadic; biggest visible spike around 09:00 (118k) occurred during a down move, hinting at distribution/selling pressure, not accumulation.

Classical patterns & price behavior

• Bear flag / descending consolidation: After the late-Jan breakdown, price consolidated below prior support (~0.10–0.11) and is now compressing under 0.094–0.096.
• Failed rebound attempts: Feb 2 high 0.0964 rejected; Feb 4 high 0.0946 rejected. Two nearby rejections strengthens that resistance zone.
• Support test odds: With price back near 0.091, odds favor another probe toward 0.089 and possibly 0.0845 if 0.0885 breaks.

24-hour outlook (probabilistic)

Base case over next 24h: bearish to sideways-bearish.

• Most likely path: drift lower / retest 0.089–0.0885.
• If 0.0885 breaks with momentum: extension toward 0.085–0.0845 (Jan 31 low cluster).
• Bullish invalidation scenario: reclaim and hold above 0.0946, then attempt 0.0964; however, given repeated rejections and macro downtrend, this is lower probability for the next 24h.

Trade plan (optimal entry logic)

Given:

• Dominant downtrend (1D)
• Repeated rejection at 0.0945–0.0964
• Current price mid-lower range (not ideal to short into support)

Better edge is to Sell (short) on a pullback into resistance, not at market.

• Optimal entry is near the supply zone where sellers repeatedly defended.

Proposed levels

• Open (Short) price: 0.09450 (retest of intraday resistance / prior rejection)
  • Rationale: aligns with the session high area and sits just below 0.09456/0.0964 overhead supply.
• Take-profit (Close) price: 0.08860
  • Rationale: targets the well-defined support band just above 0.08895 low; front-running support increases fill probability.

(Risk note: if price instead breaks above ~0.0965 and holds, the bearish thesis weakens for the next session—consider a stop above that zone in live execution.)