Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of Ethereum (ETH)

1. Trend Analysis (Daily and Recent Intraday)

• Daily Trend:

  • ETH has seen pronounced volatility since March 2025. From a low near $1400 in April, ETH began a consistent uptrend in early May, breaking above $2600 in late May. The uptrend was marked by higher highs and higher lows, confirming bullish momentum.
  • After a surge to $2784 (May 29), a correction began, with prices pulling back to the $2500-$2550 zone before recovering above $2600.

• Recent Hourly Structure:

  • The most recent 24-hour period shows ETH bouncing between $2590–$2650, forming short-term higher lows since the last daily bottom. The intraday range has tightened around $2610–$2650.
  • There is visible support at $2600–$2610, with several hourly candles bouncing off this area.

2. Volume Analysis

• Rising Volume on Recovery: Volume had been high during the May rally and subsequent correction. Notably, big green candles on high volume occurred during the move from $1810 to $2200 (May 8) and again on major pushes above $2500 (May 13, May 22).
• Declining Volume on Pullbacks: Pullbacks from $2780 to ~$2525 showed lessening volume, suggesting less conviction from sellers into the current support band.
• Recent Intraday: Volume spikes on green hourly candles suggest active buying interest at $2600–$2620.

3. Support & Resistance Levels

• Major Supports:
  • $2600–$2610 (recent low and bounce zone)
  • $2530–$2550 (prior daily support, late May consolidation)
  • $2450 (next daily support if $2530 breaks)
• Major Resistances:
  • $2650 (recent hourly top)
  • $2680–$2720 (next cluster of May highs)
  • $2785 (major swing high)

4. Technical Indicators

• Moving Averages:
  • 20/50 Period EMAs (extrapolated): Both would be sloping up; price is above short-term averages, confirming bullish structure.
  • 200-Period SMA: Likely sloping up as well due to multi-week uptrend.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI):
  • On multi-day timeframes, RSI is likely above 50 but below overbought, suggesting further headroom.
  • Recent hourly RSI would show moderate levels thanks to consolidation after the bounce from $2550 to $2650.
• MACD:
  • On daily: Still bullish but potential to consolidate if momentum wanes.
  • On hourly: May show a recent bullish cross and slight upward momentum.

5. Candlestick Patterns & Chart Structures

• Daily Candles:
  • Bullish engulfing pattern on May 27, subsequent consolidation, then break higher.
  • Most recent daily candles show long lower wicks near $2600 (buying pressure), and rejection candles near $2650 (temporary resistance).
• 1H Candles:
  • Several hourly candles exhibit long tails at $2600–$2610, confirming strong dip buying.
  • No obvious reversal top; instead, price is coiling tightly, indicating potential for a breakout.

6. Fibonacci Retracement (April Low to May High)

• Major move: $1415 (April) up to $2784 (May 29).
• Key retracement levels:
  • 38.2%: ~$2195 | 50%: ~$2099 | 61.8%: ~$2003
• ETH remains well above all these retracement bands. Latest pullback stopped well above 38.2%, reflecting bullish dominance.

7. Volatility & Market Structure

• Average True Range (ATR):
  • Declining intraday from the extreme spikes in late May implies a consolidation phase—a typical precursor to large directional moves.
• Consolidation Range (Box): $2590–$2650 (last 24 hours). The longer this range holds, the stronger the resulting breakout move.

8. Order Flow & Market Sentiment

• Persistent buy interest at any tests of $2600–$2610. Order book likely stacked with bids here.
• No major news-driven panic sell observed. Rather, healthy profit-taking after May rally.
• Crypto market sentiment remains risk-on, with ETH among leaders in recovery from recent dips.

9. Elliott Wave/Fractal Structure

• Major impulsive wave up from April, likely completing its third wave at $2780. Current move may be a wave 4 consolidation with a pending wave 5 push higher.

10. Synthesis & Probability Analysis

• Bulls: Controlled every pullback since early May. Both macro and micro trends favor a retest, and possible breakout, of $2650–$2680 soon. Volume pattern suggests continued accumulation.
• Bears: Only hope is a breakdown below $2590 support, which would open the way for tests at $2530 and $2450. Such a break seems unlikely without negative catalysts.

11. Risk Management & Optimal Entry/Exit

• Risk: $2590 is very close; a stop below $2585 is logical for a fresh long.
• Reward/Target: First target $2650–$2680. More aggressive take profit can target $2720-2780, but $2680 is prudent inside 24h.
• Entry: After $2615 pullback, optimal bid is just above $2610 (tested support), to avoid front-running and maximize R:R.
• Exit: $2679—near upper resistance and recent high, prior to round number sell pressure at $2680.

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Final Conclusion: BUY

• All major technical indicators, structure, and recent price action favor a bullish continuation from $2610–$2620 support toward $2680 resistance over the next 24 hours.
• Ideal play is a long position opened at ~$2612 with a target of $2679, stop below $2585.

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Buy at $2612, Target $2679.