Step-by-Step Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis (As of 2025-06-07)

1. Trend Analysis

a. Long-Term Trend

• From March to early April 2025, ETH experienced a major correction, dropping from over $2,000 to lows near $1,400.
• The downtrend bottomed mid-April, with an aggressive V-reversal since late April, peaking short-term at $2,784 (May 29).
• Since that top, prices retraced to a local low of $2,416 (June 5) before trying to stabilize and bounce.
• Currently, ETH trades at $2,522.89—well off recent highs but emerging from a sharp correction.

b. Mid-Term (Swing) Structure

• From May 23–30, strong volatility and a false breakout above $2,700, then sharp reversal.
• Key higher-lows structure building above $2,416 (June 5), which suggests a bullish bias if this support holds.
• June's price action is compressing, forming a potential base after a deep pullback.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume spiked during the May 7–14 up leg and the May 29–June 5 breakdown. Selling climax (June 5) aligns with price bottoming at $2,416.
• Recent sessions have declining or stable volume, suggesting possible accumulation/distribution phase.

3. Moving Averages (MA)

a. Short-Term (EMA 9–21)

• EMA9 likely around $2,510 and EMA21 around $2,580 (estimation from price action).
• ETH is trying to retake the 9-EMA, but capped by 21-EMA.
• A clean breakout and close above $2,580 would signal short-term trend reversal upward.

b. Medium-Term (50 & 100-MA)

• 50-MA is estimated near $2,600, 100-MA near $2,480 based on recent chart structure.
• ETH reclaimed the 100-MA last 6 hours, fighting with 50-MA after the correction. If confirmed, this cross is bullish.

4. Support & Resistance Levels

• Immediate support: $2,480 (recent swing low zone & 100-MA).
• Next major support: $2,416 (June 5 low/previous capitulation).
• Immediate resistance: $2,550–2,580 (21-EMA/50-MA cluster).
• Next resistance: $2,600–2,630, and strong zone at $2,700+.

5. Candlestick/Chart Pattern Recognition

• Last 24h: ETH formed a potential higher low ($2,480+) and higher high ($2,526 intraday), indicating a reversal tilt.
• Recent hourly candles: Tight consolidation with upper wicks—bulls attempting to build momentum, but sellers capping $2,525+.
• Multi-hour: Potential inverse head-and-shoulders forming June 5–7 ($2,416–$2,523 base), a classic reversal pattern.

6. Momentum Oscillators

a. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• With the sharp drop and recent base, RSI is likely 45–55 (neutral zone but recovering from oversold).
• No divergence signals. RSI turning above 55–60 would confirm momentum shift.

b. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• MACD retesting signal line from below—if the histogram turns positive in coming hours, would support a bullish impulse.

7. Volatility & Mean-Reversion

• Recent 3-day ATR expanded massively (high volatility during selloff), but now contracting—suggesting a base is forming.
• Typical bounce after such volatility: retest local resistance area ($2,550–$2,600).

8. Order Book and Psychological Levels

• Round numbers ($2,500, $2,550, $2,600) are key. Current price at $2,522 is just above a psychological pivot.
• Historically, $2,500 is a strong magnet for liquidity.

9. Fibonacci Retracement from May 29 high ($2,784) to June 5 low ($2,416):

• 38.2% retrace: $2,558
• 50.0% retrace: $2,600
• The current price is midway, suggesting upside room if buyers are persistent; $2,558–$2,600 is a likely first target.

10. Sentiment & Positioning

• Capitulation event likely flushed out weak longs, while late shorts could be trapped below $2,500 and $2,450.
• Return above $2,525 could fuel stop-runs and a squeeze toward $2,550 and above.

11. Summary of Multi-Technique Conclusion

• High volatility correction is done; ETH forming a higher-low base.
• Momentum and structure show initial reclaim, with a potential for follow-through to $2,550–$2,600 over 24h (unless $2,480 support is lost).
• Cautious bulls could enter on micro-pullback ($2,515–$2,520), aiming for the $2,580–$2,600 resistance band.
• Risk: If $2,480 fails, revisit of $2,416 is possible, but probabilities support short-term upside.

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FINAL PREDICTION & STRATEGY

• ETH has set a local bottom, is retaking key moving averages, and momentum is shifting in favor of bulls. Short-term risk/reward favors a long (Buy) position on minor weakness, with target at next resistance and stop below recent structure.