Comprehensive Technical Analysis: Ethereum (ETH) as of June 13, 2025

1. Price Trend & Structure Analysis

Long-Term Trend (3-Month Overview):

• ETH has exhibited a pronounced multi-week uptrend beginning in early May, confirmed by a higher high (2813.5 on June 10) after a sequence of higher lows and higher highs from a local bottom at 1472 in early April. This uptrend peaked on June 10-11, followed by a retracement.
• The current price ($2,548) is roughly -9% from its recent high (~$2,813), indicative of a mid-cycle pullback within a greater bullish context.
• The swing low ($2,416 on June 5) established strong demand below $2,500.

Short-Term Trend (Weekly/Daily):

• After the locally explosive move to $2,813 (June 10), ETH sharply retraced, bottoming intraday around $2,455 (June 13), rebounding to the current level, confirming a corrective ABC structure on the daily chart.
• Sideways price action between $2,500 and $2,650 is evident after the major retracement, suggesting mean reversion after volatility.
• The latest candles have long lower wicks (esp. last 24h), signaling buyers stepping in to absorb selling below $2,550.

Intraday/Hourly:

• Hourly price action shows multiple retests of the $2,520–2,530 area as support, followed by quick recoveries toward $2,550+, with volume spikes near those lows, confirming accumulation at support.
• Volatility contracted significantly during the NY afternoon (UTC 18–21h) after the earlier deep pullback.

2. Volume & Order Flow Analysis

• Volume surged drastically on sharp down moves ($2,813->$2,619 on June 12, and $2,643->$2,454 June 13), indicating capitulation-style volume on the initial leg of the selloff (over $38B 24h on June 13).
• Latter candles on both daily and hourly charts show declining volume and shorter candle range, a classic pattern for sell exhaustion/buyer absorption.
• Key rejection wicks on high volume below $2,500 increase the probability that $2,500 is a critical support line and likely represents a technical demand zone for swing traders.

3. Moving Averages

• EMA20 and EMA50 (approx.): The EMA20 (short-term) and EMA50 (medium) would currently rest around $2,600 and $2,550—ETH is attempting to reclaim EMA50 after falling below both MAs during the volatility.
• MA Convergence: The convergence of major averages near $2,550 and price holding above this area is frequently a technical setup for a bounce, especially after an oversold impulse.

4. RSIs and Oscillator Readings

• Daily RSI: Estimated 45–50, near neutral to slightly oversold after the rapid drawdown; not yet at panic levels (<30), but aligns with re-entry zone for strong trending assets.
• Hourly RSI: Several sub-30 prints over the last two sessions, now recovering, indicating a short-term momentum reversal in progress.
• MACD: On daily, likely still negative but histogram shows deceleration in selling pressure; hourly MACD crossing bullish (9am–12pm UTC session on June 13), supportive of near-term recovery.

5. Support, Resistance & Fibonacci Levels

• Support Zones:
  • Major: $2,500 (psych), $2,454 (recent intraday low), $2,416 (multi-day low).
  • Minor: $2,530 (local hourly), $2,475 (confluence with volume spike).
• Resistance:
  • $2,600 (minor, EMA20), $2,650 (daily range midline), $2,750 (major supply from June 11–12).
• Fibonacci Retracements (March–June swing low to high):
  • 38.2%: ~$2,590
  • 50%: ~$2,550
  • 61.8%: ~$2,480 ETH is currently pivoting around the 50% retracement, a classic bounce zone in bullish markets.

6. Chart Patterns and Candlestick Formations

• Intraday Hammer candles and Doji (June 13): Signal potential reversal or at least downside exhaustion around $2,450–$2,550 area.
• Bullish Engulfing/Strong Reversal (Hourly): Strong up-candle after the initial sell-off, confirming short-term momentum shift.
• No clear head-and-shoulders, but multi-day correction resembles a bull flag after a parabolic run.

7. Market Structure & Liquidity

• Liquidity void filled below $2,500 on high volume; MMs likely to defend this region as it coincides with previous OI buildup and liquidations of late entrants.
• Evidence of late short exhaustion as price snaps back above $2,530–2,550 quickly after sweeps.

8. Sentiment and Momentum Indicators

• Sentiment is recovering after panic flush—social and statistical analyses (not directly available in data, but inferred from price/volume) suggest fear is being replaced with cautious optimism.
• Momentum oscillators suggest at least a mean-reversion bounce is highly probable, with a possibility of a rally toward the mid-to-upper $2,600s.

9. Elliott Wave Perspective

• The leg from $1,472 (April) to $2,813 (June) is likely Wave 3 of an impulse. The current sell-off is correcting that move—Wave 4. Provided $2,416–2,454 holds, next move (Wave 5) targets a new high above $2,813 in subsequent weeks.

10. Risk Management & Trade Setup

• Given ETH’s high beta and liquidity, aggressive entries around $2,540–2,550 (with stop-loss just below $2,470) offer asymmetric reward: risk. Target area: $2,650–2,700 for near-term swing with upside extension if $2,650 is cleanly retaken.

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Synthesis:

• Multiple converging technical signals—including momentum oscillators, volume absorption at support, hammer candles, pattern-based analysis, and MA confluence—indicate a short-term bottom has likely formed at $2,454–2,500.
• Barring any negative black swan news, the most probable price action over the next 24h is a continued recovery bounce toward $2,650, meeting both technical resistance and mean-reversion targets.

Recommendation: Buy (Long Position)

Optimal Entry: $2,540 (current region at time of analysis, slight buffer below $2,550) Take Profit Target: $2,650 (major technical resistance/EMA20 re-test) Stop Loss: (Not required by prompt, but for discipline: below $2,470)

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Summary: After a capitulation flush, Ethereum’s technicals favor a recovery move. Buy at current levels for a medium conviction bounce to $2,650 over the next 24h.