Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Ethereum (ETH) as of June 14, 2025

1. Price and Trend Context

• Current Price: $2,508.85
• 24-Hour High/Low: $2,579.79 / $2,496.42 (intraday volatility ~3.3%).

The recent daily trend shows a significant retracement from the swing high above $2,800 (June 10-11) to today's session. The price has now tested the $2,500-2,550 range multiple times in the last 24–36 hours, indicating a possible base formation.

2. Chart Pattern Analysis

• Immediate Pattern: After the run-up to $2,813.52 on June 10, ETH experienced a swift selloff, followed by a series of lower highs ($2,777, $2,651, $2,579) and lower lows ($2,579, $2,443, $2,496). The current chart suggests a descending channel with the base flattening near $2,500 (visual support cluster).
• Candle Structure: Short-term hourly candles show tails at the lows, suggesting buyer defense at $2,500.
• Longer-term: The move up from $1,800s in late April/early May and the rapid expansion in May point to a larger uptrend, but ETH is now retracing/consolidating after being overbought.

3. Moving Average Analysis

• Short-term (20/50 EMA, estimated): Both EMAs are sloping downwards since the midweek ($2,600–2,650$), suggesting short-term pressure. ETH is trading below both averages.
• Long-term (200-EMA): The recent strong rally likely puts the 200-EMA reference near $2,350–$2,400, well below current price, still suggesting medium-term uptrend, but shorter-term overextension is resolving.

4. Support and Resistance Levels

• Support: $2,500 (multiple intraday tests), then $2,475 (last week's low), and then $2,350 (confluence with long-term EMA).
• Resistance: $2,550–2,580 (intraday supply zone), $2,600 (psychological), $2,650+ (recent breakdown level).

5. Volume & Order Flow Analysis

• Volume Spike: Large volumes seen on down candles, especially June 13 (over $37B)—indicative of liquidation and panic selling. The smaller volumes today suggest selling exhaustion near $2,500.
• Intraday: Occasional high volume on recovery candles, suggesting dip-buying appetite is returning at $2,500.

6. Momentum Indicators (RSI, MACD – estimated based on price structure):

• RSI: After the rally to $2,800+, the RSI likely peaked and has now reset near neutral/borderline oversold (30–40) on the hourly/daily, consistent with a correction phase.
• MACD Histogram: Negative, but flattening as the price tries to carve out a bottom around $2,500.

7. Volatility Indicators

• ATR (Average True Range): Spiked in the $2,800–$2,500 drop, but is now stabilizing between $60–$100 dollars per candle, suggesting a move toward mean-reversion/probable short-term consolidation.

8. Fib Retracement Analysis (from June low ~$2416 to recent high ~$2825):

• The current price sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels, often zones for institutional accumulation or final shakeout before reversal.

9. Sentiment and Behavioral Factors

• Recent Liquidations: Last week’s surge and sharp reversal has cleared a lot of weak longs; current positioning is likely cleaner, and persistent defense at $2,500 suggests buyers are stepping in.
• Psychological Level: $2,500 is a significant round number and is being aggressively defended by spot and derivative participants.

10. Elliott Wave Context (subjective):

• The move since late May could be marked as impulsive (Wave 3) followed by a sharp corrective (Wave 4) down to the $2,500 zone. A resumption of the dominant uptrend is probable if ETH holds $2,500.

11. Market Correlation & Macro Context

• If BTC and US equities are stabilizing (correlation high recently), further panic is less likely. Macro events (mid-June) seem priced in after the liquidation.

12. Combining All Tools: Synthesis and Probability-Weighted Forecast

• Bearish factors: Momentum loss, trapped longs, failed retest of $2,600–$2,650 zone, short-term MA resistance.
• Bullish factors: Major support at $2,500, seller exhaustion, volume climax and signs of accumulation, oversold bounce possible.
• Neutralizing factors: Consolidation likely in $2,480–$2,580 for some hours unless a catalyst appears.

Conclusion: With $2,500 being tested multiple times and defense holding, the probability favors an attempted bottom. A bounce toward $2,550–2,580 is likely in the next 24 hours. A tight stop below $2,480 is prudent due to lingering bearish risk.

Trading Plan

• Bias: Mildly bullish reversal expected. Look to open a long at current price or slight dip.
• Optimal Entry: $2,505 (limit buy, just above round level clearing wicks).
• Target Exit: $2,575 (prior supply area & mean-reversion zone), conservative profit booking.
• Stop-loss (risk control, not requested but implied): $2,480 (below week’s low), for a $25 risk per ETH, ~2.4%.

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Trade: BUY ETH at $2,505, target $2,575 over 24H

Expect: Sideways-to-up movement due to seller exhaustion and support defense; risk escalates on loss of $2,480.