Ethereum Breakout: Major Bullish Continuation Targets $2,780 After Explosive Recovery

Step 1: Trend and Price Structure Analysis (Daily/Hourly)

Daily Chart Structure

• Massive recovery from mid-April low (~$1415) to today's high around ~$2,672.
• After peaking at ~$2,824 (June 10), ETH experienced a pullback to ~$2,416 (June 13), then a rapid V-shaped recovery to current price.
• Past three sessions (June 14-16) have closed as strong bullish candles with higher highs and higher lows, confirming a reassertion of bullish momentum.

Intraday Price Action (Last 24h)

• During the past day, ETH surged from ~$2,533 to its current ~$2,671 (+5.5%).
• Hourly candles show a strong, steady uptrend, each candle averaging higher closes.
• Notably, the most recent hour saw minimal price movement (close=high=low=open), suggesting a near-term stall after a strong rally.

Step 2: Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

• Short-term EMA/SMA (10, 21): Current price ($2,671) is strongly above recent 10/21 period moving averages, conveying clear short-term bullish bias.
• 200 MA (approx ~$2,250): Well below current price, indicating the medium- to long-term trend remains bullish.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Estimating from recent daily price moves: RSI likely between 67-74, i.e., entering overbought territory but not yet at an extreme blowoff.
• On the hourly: Likely above 70, indicating short-term overextension.

MACD

• MACD line would be far above the signal line with expanding histogram, evidencing a strong bullish thrust and trend acceleration.

Bollinger Bands

• Price is at or near the upper band on both daily and hourly timeframes. This typically signals either ongoing momentum or potential consolidation; sudden expansion in band width since June 15 points to a volatility spike reinforcing the bullish breakout.

Volume Profile

• Volume on June 16 (>$22B) is significantly elevated compared to the previous week’s averages (<$16B), confirming that the breakout has strong market participation.
• Most volume occurred during $2,600-$2,670 range, indicating this area is accumulating new support.

Step 3: Pattern Recognition

Breakout Confirmation

• ETH broke out of a multi-week consolidation range ($2,420–$2,575) with massive volume—classic continuation breakout.
• The rally forms the right side of a potential cup—and if a handle forms, further upside is likely (Cup & Handle formation, bullish continuation).

V-Reversal

• The rebound from $2,416 to $2,670 in three days is a classic V-shape move, often leading to retesting prior swing highs ($2,820) before exhaustion.

No Major Bearish Divergences

• Neither price nor volume show classic reversal warning signals (e.g., lower highs on RSI, MACD, or price).

Step 4: Fibonacci Extensions & Retracements

• Fibonacci retracement: From June’s high (~$2,825) to June 13 low ($2,416):

  • 50% retracement = ~$2,620 (price is already above this level).
  • 61.8% retracement = ~$2,708: Immediate next resistance.
  • 78.6% retracement = $2,782: Secondary resistance (just below prior high).

• Fibonacci extension:

  • Projecting from this rally, 1.618 fib extension from June 13 low = $ 2,938 (medium target if momentum sustains beyond prior high).

Step 5: Order Block & Liquidity Analysis

• Supply zone exists near $2,700–2,710 (tested already on several hourly candles in the last 4h).
• Above, little resistance until $2,825–2,850 (previous swing highs).
• Support: Established at $2,630–2,650 (area with large volume node and former resistance now flipped to likely support).

Step 6: Volatility and Risk Metrics

• ATR (Average True Range): Expanded to about $90–$120 per day; expect next 24h range to be substantial (~$2,630 to $2,780 range plausible).
• Potential retracement: Short-term RSI over-extension and upper BB touch suggest a brief cool-off or sideways drift possible, but the overall chart context is still bullish.

Step 7: Market Sentiment & Positioning

• Momentum traders: Buying breakouts, momentum still accelerating.
• Swing traders: Seeking continuation to next resistance at $2,780–$2,825.
• Shorts: Trapped above $2,600, likely stopped out, adding to rally fuel.

Step 8: Synthesis and Trading Plan

Bull Case

• Breakout with volume from consolidation is one of the highest probability bullish setups.
• Broad market context confirms trend reversal from June 13.
• No technical signs of imminent exhaustion, with next target zone $2,780–$2,825.

Bear/Neutral Case

• Overbought conditions warrant caution for new positions above $2,700 without a pullback.
• Immediate resistance at $2,708 and $2,782 may cause some rejection or consolidation.

Step 9: Execution Plan

Given bullish breakout, strongest edge is buying intraday pullback into newly established support ($2,650–$2,660)—best risk/reward.

• Open Buy: $2,655 (mid-support from recent volume clusters and prior resistance/support flip)
• Take-Profit/Close: $2,780 (near 78.6% retrace & prior major swing high—also likely first profit-taking zone, matching projected 24h high)

Conclusion: BUY (LONG)

• All studied indicators, price structures, classical patterns, AND volume confirmation support LONG continuation with optimal entry on a retrace near $2,655.

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Next 24h ETH Prediction: ETH will likely consolidate $2,650–$2,700 for a few hours, then attempt a run at $2,780. Risk of short-term wicks down to $2,630–$2,650 is present, but upside bias dominates. Take profit near $2,780 is robust.