Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis – As of 2025-06-18

1. Trend Analysis (Daily & Multi-week)

Examining the price action from March 2025 through June 18, 2025, ETH has demonstrated significant volatility, with multiple price swings and trend reversals:

• Primary Trend: From late March to mid-April, ETH experienced a steep downtrend (from ~$2000 to lows around $1400-$1500). This capitulation phase showed heavy volumes, with likely stop-loss runs and panic selling.
• Mid-term Action: From mid-April onward, a broad bottom-building pattern emerged. After bottoming, ETH steadily recovered, printing higher lows and higher highs towards May and June, peaking over $2800 before another retracement.
• Current Structure: Over the last two weeks, ETH is oscillating between $2450 and $2700, printing a volatile consolidation. Recent highs ($2824 on June 10) were sharply rejected, leading to a correction toward $2500, now showing choppy range-bound trade.

2. Candlestick & Price Action Patterns

• Recent Candles: The last few daily candles have long lower wicks (notably June 14-18), signaling demand and buying pressure upon testing the $2470-$2500 region.
• Intraday Structure (June 18): Several hours show sharp darts below $2500, quickly bid up, imparting micro double-bottoms and pin bars (bullish reversal hints on small timeframes). However, upper shadows near $2540-$2545 suggest overhead resistance and profit-taking.
• Volume Context: Heavy selling volume on June 13 ($2.6B) has since reduced, with lately more moderate volume, indicating exhaustion of aggressive sellers and possible market equilibrium.

3. Moving Averages

• Short-Term (20/50 EMA-SMA): The 20-day EMA is sloping down, just above current price ($2560-$2580). The 50-day is slightly higher ($2590-$2610). ETH is now below both, confirming short-term weakness, but not yet oversold.
• 200-Day MA: Not provided, but longer-term trend likely remains bullish (looking at multi-month recovery from April lows); ETH is still well above April's bear market prices.

4. RSI & Momentum Oscillators

• Daily RSI: Based on the price action (sharp drop, bounce, range), RSI is likely in the 40-50 range—neutral but trending down in the short run, not oversold yet. There’s no clear bullish divergence, but momentum is decelerating.
• MACD: Should be in a bearish or neutral crossover, given recent retracement from local highs ($2820 to sub-$2500).

5. Fibonacci Retracement & Key Levels

• Fib Retracement (May Lows to June Highs):
  • 0.382: ~$2620
  • 0.5: ~$2520
  • 0.618: ~$2420
  • Current price ($2529) is right at the 0.5 retracement—a classic decision area.
• Support Zones:
  • $2480-2500: Strong repeated demand (June 11, 13, 16, and multiple hourly bounces).
  • $2410-2440: Next key support from prior lows.
• Resistance Levels:
  • $2540-$2550: Multiple intraday rejections today and recent session highs.
  • $2595-$2620: Overhead swing highs and confluence with EMAs/Fib 0.382.

6. Volatility and Volume Profile

• ATR (Average True Range): Daily price swings of $50-$120 are common recently (high volatility). Range expansion likely if price breaks the $2545 resistance or loses $2470 support.
• Volume Profile: Highest recent volume on sell-offs; latest range consolidates on declining volume—unwillingness to sell lower, possibly awaiting a breakout.

7. Market Structure & Order Flow

• Order Book Flow: Rapid bounces below $2500 suggest that buyers are defending this zone. However, lack of continuation above $2545 marks this as the ceiling for short-term rallies.
• Liquidity Pools: There's likely a cluster of stop-loss orders below $2465, which could give way to a further flush if violated. Upside stops likely build above $2550.

8. Pattern Recognition

• Short-term: ETH is carving a small-range, descending channel (from June 10 high, each peak lower, with support at $2480-$2500). No classic reversal (inverse head-and-shoulders) yet, but multiple tests of support appear constructive.
• Long-term: Still arguably in a larger bullish consolidation after a multi-month uptrend initiated in May.

9. Elliott Wave Count (Experimental)

• March to May: Impulse move up (1-2-3 wave advance);
• June: Currently in corrective A-B-C move, with price now at B or C's bottoming zone (awaiting confirmation).

10. Sentiment/Context

• Macro: Recent rally and subsequent pullback are consistent with healthy market digestion. No extreme panic; ETH is holding above key market structure levels.
• Options/Derivs: (Not provided, but the muted range today suggests a lack of options-triggered volatility spikes.)

11. Summary & 24-Hour Outlook

• Bias: Short-term market is neutral-to-bearish, rebounding from major support but unable to break out higher. Bulls defend $2480-$2500; bears active at $2540-$2550.
• Scenario 1 (Base Case): ETH oscillates between $2470-$2550 for the next 6-18 hours; an attempted upswing may reach $2550–2575 but is likely capped below $2620. A close above $2550 flips bias to bullish continuation; below $2470, expect retest of $2440 or $2410.
• Scenario 2 (Breakdown): If support at $2470 fails, quick drop to $2440 and possibly $2410 as stops are hit.
• Scenario 3 (Breakout): Unlikely in next 24h, unless macro or crypto-news catalyst arrives.

Trade Decision

• Technical indicators are mixed to weak-bearish; price sits below daily EMAs and at a key retracement. Repeated failures at $2540, waning bounce attempts, and mid-term resistance call for a tactical short bias.
• High-probability trade: Enter short ("Sell") near $2535 (after failed retests), targeting a move to $2475 (recent support, liquidity pool). Stop above $2555 (to guard against breakout).

Conclusion:

ETH is in a consolidation/corrective zone. Momentum is neutral-bearish: bulls are stalling, and bears may retake control if support cracks. A tactical short at current levels offers a favorable risk-reward.

Decision: SELL/SHORT near $2535. Target: $2475 for initial take profit. Alternative thesis: Stop-loss above $2555 in case of unexpected strength. Reconsider bias if ETH closes a 4h candle above $2555.